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Law's offseason trade overview: Big names will be shopped

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In lieu of the buyers' guides I wrote in previous offseasons, I'm providing this one, longer overview of players I think might be traded or at least be the subjects of significant demand, even if their current clubs aren't actively trying to trade them.

These players are largely veterans entering the final or penultimate years of their contracts, and in several cases, they are being pushed by prospects coming up behind them in the system.

Here's a rundown of some significant veterans who could be available via trade this winter or should be available, even if they're not.

Andrew McCutchen, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates

After an abysmal, injury-wrecked 2016 season, Cutch returned partway to form in 2017, though a huge chunk of his offensive production came in the 50-game stretch he played from June 1 to the trade deadline. He produced a .367/.470/.678 slash line and hit half of his home runs in those two months. He made better contact than in 2016 but wasn't entirely back to where he was before that season.

He also probably needs to move out of center field -- the Pirates might have deferred this given how hard left field is to play at PNC Park -- which is a double-edged sword when considering his value. He's below average in center and may be above-average or better in left, but if he moves to a corner, he'll lose the benefit his production got from the lower replacement value for center fielders. I could also imagine a scenario in which he's healthier in the long term through moving to an easier defensive position.

McCutchen is under contract for 2018 on a $14.75 million team option, after which he's a free agent. That makes it fairly important for the Pirates to trade him now. If they wait until July, they will get a smaller return, both because of the shorter timeframe and because the new team won't get a draft pick for him when he leaves as a free agent.

The complication for Pittsburgh is that its top position-player prospect, Austin Meadows, struggled in 2017, hitting .250/.311/.359 in 72 Triple-A games around various injuries. The team was hoping that Meadows would be ready to step into the outfield after a McCutchen trade, but that isn't the case today, so trading Cutch -- for whom I expect them to find great interest -- would make the big league team significantly worse in the short term.

Josh Donaldson, 3B, Toronto Blue Jays

Donaldson is heading for a late free agency, as he'll turn 32 in December and reaches free agency just a month before turning 33. He missed about six weeks early in the 2017 season with a calf injury but was still among the league's most productive hitters when he played, continuing to show patience and making a lot of hard contact (he was 17th in the majors in Statcast's barrels/PA metric, which measures certain hard-hit balls against a player's total plate appearances).

He lost a little value on defense, but it's likely that the leg issue contributed to that. Had he played a full season, he would have cruised past 6 WAR for the fifth straight season. I don't know how comfortable I would be giving him a long-term deal because of his age, but as a one-year rental, he's a great fit for any team with an opening at third, including the Cardinals, Giants, Mets (if ownership will pay) or Angels.

Toronto's two top position player prospects right now are a third baseman (Vlad Guerrero Jr.) and a shortstop who isn't likely to remain at that spot (Bo Bichette), so any void left by a Donaldson trade will be filled internally in short order.

Manny Machado, 3B, Baltimore Orioles

The Orioles seem highly unlikely to trade Machado, but they should, as he's going to be a free agent after 2018 and will likely command something well in excess of $200 million. Machado ran into some rotten luck early in 2017 before rallying in the second half, and he remains an elite defender at third base. He has been worth 6-plus WAR three times in his career, and I'd bet on him reaching the mark again in 2018 and regularly beyond it, given that this will be his age-25 season and he's very much in his peak years.

What are six wins (for something like $13-15 million in arbitration, cheap for that production) plus a draft pick after the player leaves as a free agent worth? We've seen several major trades in the past two-plus years that returned two top-100-level prospects plus other stuff, often for players who weren't projected to deliver six wins of value even over two years (Andrew Miller, Craig Kimbrel).

Jonathan Lucroy went from Milwaukee to Texas in July 2016 with a year-plus remaining before free agency, in the midst of a four-win season, and the Brewers got two top-100 prospects plus a later throw-in as a PTBNL. I don't mean to get too hung up on "top-100 prospect" as a designation, but I think it frames the discussion in a way that says the return in a Machado trade should start with two major prospects plus multiple other prospects. As for who should be interested in Machado, he's an upgrade at third base for every team but the Rockies, Cubs and Nationals -- and yes, I know that implies that I'm putting Machado above some 2017 All-Stars at third.

Zach Britton, RP, Baltimore Orioles

Britton might be just as unlikely to change addresses as Machado, but the rationale for dealing the impending free agent is the same and perhaps even more urgent given his injuries and decline in effectiveness in 2017.

The Royals faced a nearly identical situation with Wade Davis last winter and traded him for Jorge Soler, a former top-20 prospect who had been crowded out and had trouble staying on the field for the Cubs. That's a solid template for the Orioles, assuming other teams believe in Britton's health, as he is the perfect addition for any team trying to create a 2017 Yankees-style bullpen.

Giancarlo Stanton, RF, Miami Marlins

Stanton might win the NL MVP award in 2017 after leading all NL position players in WAR this year and hitting the most home runs in a season by any player since 2001. He'd immediately make just about any club better with his power, OBP ability and above-average defense in right field.

But that's all true only when he's healthy. He missed half of 2015 and at least 30 games in 2012, 2013 and 2016, and in three of those four seasons, he performed well below his career average level of offense.

That doesn't address the elephant in the room: Stanton's huge, ballooning contract. Stanton is guaranteed 10 more years at a total cost of $295 million, including the buyout on 2028. Only five players are under contract for 2018 at a higher one-year salary than Stanton's average for the next decade. He can opt out of his deal after 2020 but would leave more than $200 million on the table by doing so, which makes such a move unlikely. If he performs like he did in 2017 -- when he was superb but undoubtedly had a little help from the baseball itself -- he's worth every penny and then some. But his history says he isn't likely to be worth it, and that's before we even discuss the probability that he will decline during the course of the deal, which runs through his age-37 season.

If you're a rival GM with the payroll flexibility to add Stanton, what do you offer? Do you tell the Marlins you'll take the entire contract and all of its inherent risks but won't give up any players or prospects of value in return? Do you give up prospects to save a quarter or a third of the money, even though there's a decent amount of performance and health risk involved? Would you be better served saving your money to bid on Bryce Harper and/or Machado, both better talents and both free agents after 2018? I had a GM tell me after 2015 that he thought the Stanton deal was the most untradeable contract in baseball. That's no longer the case, but I would upgrade its, uh, tradeability only to "difficult."

Most teams would be much better off with Stanton on the roster -- but only if the cost to acquire him doesn't cripple the club in the process.

Dee Gordon, 2B, Miami Marlins

Gordon's contract is about to balloon as well, although, unlike Stanton's, it isn't as long as the half-life of a proton: The speedy second baseman is due $37.9 million over three years, not including a vesting option for 2021. That's probably fair value for the player he has been since he became a regular in 2014: .304/.336/.382, missing half a season because of a PED suspension, with 212 steals, a 77 percent success rate and above-average defense at second.

His value is closely tied to his batting average, and thus his BABIP, which now sits at .345 for his career. As long as he can run, he should be able to post above-average BABIPs and be at least a 2.5-win player, and I think that's probably conservative.

The Rangers, Blue Jays, Angels and Rays could all use a boost at second base, and even others such as the Giants and Pirates would be improved by adding Gordon's bat, legs and glove.

Ender Inciarte, CF, Atlanta Braves

Inciarte might be one of the 10 most valuable trade assets in baseball right now, between his consistent production (3-plus WAR for three straight seasons by both Baseball-Reference and Fangraphs valuations), youth (2018 will be his age-27 season) and team-friendly contract (he's owed $26.8 million over the next four years, with a $9 million option for 2021).

If Atlanta chooses not to trade Inciarte, the franchise could have a logjam in center field soon, as top prospect Ronald Acuna plays the same position. Acuna raced through three levels of the minors, hitting everywhere he played, and finished in Triple-A, putting him on the cusp of the majors at age 19.

Atlanta does not have to trade Inciarte, but the Braves do need to find some power bats for the corners if they're going to contend in the next few years, and dealing him might be the best way to go about getting them.

Gerrit Cole, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates

Cole didn't have a great 2017 season, largely due to a big spike in his home run rate (overall and HR/fly ball), but he did stay healthy all season, making 33 starts while reaching 200 innings for the second time in his career.

His raw stuff was there, including his velocity, but his fastball was hit harder than usual. Despite his pure arm strength, it's a bit of a low spin-rate fastball, so it isn't usually his most effective pitch -- his changeup and slider both grade out better when he's on -- but he threw the fastball a bit less often and still gave up more damage on that pitch, including half of the homers he allowed on the season. The juiced ball might have hurt him because there's nothing else in his performance or data that would explain the home run spike.

Cole is arbitration-eligible the next two offseasons before hitting free agency in 2020, so the Pirates could choose to hold him now and see if he has a better first half in 2018, trading him in July to a contender for a Jose Quintana-level package, but I think the scarcity of good starters on the free-agent market will work in their favor if they explore a trade now. They're helped by the presence of several major-league-ready or nearly ready starters in their system, including top prospect Mitch Keller (not ready but close), Nick Kingham (ready) and the ever-present Tyler Glasnow (who knows?).

Jake Odorizzi, RHP, and Chris Archer, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays

Odorizzi has always been a little homer-prone, but it deteriorated in 2017 to the point that he was a replacement-level starter for his 143 innings, setting all kinds of career worsts in the process. He made $4.1 million last year in his first year of arbitration eligibility and has two years of team control remaining before he's a free agent. He does bring durability, making at least 28 starts in four straight seasons, but he has never had a real out pitch, so when his command and control slip, as they did last season, he's vulnerable to hard contact. A year ago, he had some real trade value, but now I think he's a project for a team looking for some reliable innings at the back of its rotation.

As for Archer, he underperformed his peripherals for the third year in a row but is still so much more valuable than his contract ($34 million for four years if both his options are exercised) that the Rays can and should ask for an entire solar system in return. Archer has been top-three in the AL in strikeouts for three straight seasons and hasn't missed a start in that span, so he'd be worth a Quintana/Sale sort of package if the Rays do choose to move him.

Freddy Galvis, SS, and Cesar Hernandez, 2B, Philadelphia Phillies

Both Phillies middle infielders are about to be pushed out by prospects, though the two veterans bring totally different values to the market.

Galvis is a free agent after 2018, likely to earn $6-7 million via arbitration this year and an elite defender at short with a little pop but awful on-base skills (.287 career OBP; .309 in 2017 was his career high, and he hit in front of the pitcher a lot).

Hernandez is a plus defender at second who has a .372 OBP the past two seasons, good for 24th in baseball in that period. He's arb-eligible for the second time this winter and has three years of team control remaining before free agency. The Phillies' top prospect, J.P. Crawford, is an excellent defensive shortstop, and both he and second base prospect Scott Kingery, a 70 defender at second, are ready to play in the majors now, so the Phillies have a surplus to trade.

Several contenders could use help at second base; the Rangers, Blue Jays, Angels and Rays all got less than nothing from the position this year because of injuries or poor performances, and Hernandez would be a huge upgrade for any of them.

Galvis is a tougher sell as a regular, and few contenders (or would-be contenders) would see him as a substantial upgrade, but I think he'd be an ideal utility infielder, given his defensive prowess, especially for a team on which the everyday shortstop is more bat than glove, such as the Mariners, Rockies, Jays or even Red Sox.

Brad Hand, RP, San Diego Padres

Since the Padres acquired Hand off waivers before the 2016 season, he has thrown 168.2 innings (all in relief, of course) with 215 strikeouts, 51 unintentional walks, a 2.56 ERA and a 3.05 FIP. He has been great and largely wasted on a team that lost 91 games in 2017 and isn't going to be any closer to contention in 2018.

The Padres should trade him now, while he has two years of control remaining and before he loses effectiveness or gets hurt, as so many heavily used relievers do. (Hand led the majors with 82 appearances in 2016 and was tied for 11th in 2017 with 72.) I think every contender would be better with Hand in the bullpen, and given the recent trades for non-rental relievers, the Padres would be justified in demanding a top-100 prospect plus something more.

Jose Abreu, 1B, Chicago White Sox

It isn't a great market for shopping a bat-first first baseman, but Abreu will be the player the White Sox are paying the most next season if he's still in uniform on Opening Day and one of only two players set to earn $10 million (along with James Shields, with the Padres picking up $11 million of Shields’ $21 million salary). Abreu is under team control for two years, making $10.8 million as a first-time arb-eligible player in 2017, so he is likely to pull down $30 million or more over 2018-19.

Abreu is coming off his second-best season in the majors, a 4.7 WAR .304/.354/.552 season that was his best since his 2013 rookie campaign. He's striking out less often even as K’s are up league-wide, and he's making plenty of hard contact. I'd rather trade for him than give four or more years to any of the other free-agent 1B/DHs this winter, though as I've written ad nauseam, there aren't many teams looking for those players.

Ryon Healy, IF/DH, Oakland Athletics

Reports surfaced at the end of October that Healy, who hit .305/.337/.524 in a half-season as a rookie in 2016, might be available in a trade, given the emergence of Matt Olson in his own half-season as a rookie and the team's desire to move Khris Davis to the DH spot.

Healy's performance dipped to .271/.302/.451 in his first full major league season, and his defense at third has been uniformly bad, to the point that he needs to go to first or be a DH, which limits his trade market, given how few teams have openings at either spot and the presence of many free agents with better on-base skills who can play first. Healy would be a nice bench bat for a team that leans left in its lineup, but I'm not sure there's a starter here.