An Aug. 31 trade that means something? I never thought I'd see the day. The Angels traded for Justin Upton on Thursday, boosting their wild-card chances in a significant way while removing a problematic contract from the Tigers' roster.
With 5.0 WAR and counting through 125 games, Upton, 30, is in the midst of his best season since 2011 -- and possibly his best season, period. The bat speed that seemed to vanish last year has returned, and as a result Upton is punishing fastballs again, while adjusting enough to sliders that they're no longer the obvious way to get him out.
The Angels have gotten virtually no offense from left field -- an atrocious .244/.315/.341 line from all players at a position where most teams get some thump -- so even a month of Upton is a clear upgrade. His presence means they'll have one fewer dead spot in the lineup during the high-leverage games of the season’s final month. If he's worth an extra win over the guys he's replacing the rest of the regular season, that could easily be the win that puts the Angels into the playoffs as they are currently just one game out of the second wild-card spot and two games out of the first spot.
The rub for the Angels is Upton's contract; he has a player opt-out after this season, and if he chooses not to exercise it, the Angels will owe him $89 million over the next four years. If Upton can hold most of his 2017 performance, that's not a bad deal for the team as his output this year has more than justified his salary and would be worth even more to a borderline contender like the Angels than to a rebuilding team like the Tigers.
If he opts out, the Angels didn't give up much to acquire him anyway. The concern for GM Billy Eppler has to be a recurrence of Upton's 2016 line, when he generated just 2 WAR and was worse both defensively and at the plate. But Upton is still at an age when you can expect some continued peak-level production before he declines toward the end of the deal, and the fact that he's making more hard contact this year should also boost projections for his value going forward.
The return for Detroit is minimal, which you'd expect given Upton's contract. Grayson Long is a potential back-end starter who has three average pitches and above-average control but needs a better weapon to miss bats. He has the size and delivery to start if he ever finds that out pitch, but most likely is a fifth starter or swingman. The return is an acknowledgement that the Tigers just wanted to move Upton's contract and avoid the possibility of him staying with the team by declining to exercise his opt-out clause (the equivalent of picking up a player option).
One of the players Upton is replacing is Cameron Maybin, whom the Angels lost to the Astros on Thursday on a waiver claim. Maybin can run and defend but has never developed at the plate, possibly derailed by injuries, including a wrist impingement and knee injury that wrecked his 2012 season. He's a nice 25th man on a roster but nothing more and would have lost all playing time to Upton if he had stayed in Anaheim.