When the St. Louis Cardinals gave Brett Cecil four years, I wrote about the awful track record of relievers who received deals of that length. Of the 12 I could find since the turn of the century, four were terrible, one more is headed that way (David Robertson), and four others have failed to provide good returns on their investments. It’s a poor risk even within the world of long-term pitching contracts, which are inherently risky due to the nature of pitcher health. You just don’t give relievers four years. And yet this winter we might see three or even four guys get that kind of contract.

I thought Mark Melancon was worthy of a one-year deal, a good reliever with a history of injuries earlier in his career and some subtle signs of declining skills over the past two seasons. He’s 31 and has lost some fastball velocity over the past few years, switching to a cutter as his primary pitch to compensate. That pitch became much less effective at getting ground balls last season, and he’s around only league-average at missing bats. He should still be a solid late-game relief option in 2017, maybe into 2018, but there’s no way I’d bet on him retaining his value over the next four years. To give any reliever four years willfully ignores the history of such contracts, and to do it with Melancon willfully ignores his own history as well.