This year's free agent class might be the worst I've ever seen. It's certainly the worst, whether we're talking top-tier talent or overall depth, of any class I've ranked since joining ESPN in 2006. As good as last year's crop was, this year's is that bad and then some. There's as little starting pitching as you'll ever see, virtually no help at any of the three skill positions in the infield and way too many platoon corner bats or DHs. That doesn't mean we will see a winter without long-term deals and huge salaries; there's money out there to be spent, but nothing great to spend it on.
With these rankings, I try to provide a rough idea of the offer I'd be comfortable making to each player if I was the general manager of a contending team (or would-be contending team) and operating at or above the median payroll level.
Estimating the actual dollar value of a player to any specific team is nearly impossible, because we don't know what the marginal revenue product of a win is for each club, and that number can change for a team from season to season, or even within a season, if it's much better or worse than expected.
My numbers are not predictions, and they often will fall short of actual market values. That is due to the "winner's curse" phenomenon, in which the winner of an auction for a good of uncertain value is the bidder whose internal estimates of that value are the highest (and thus perhaps too optimistic), and because teams with large payrolls can and often do pay more for a win in the free-agent market.
This document will be updated as the offseason wears on. When a player signs, we'll add a note in the profile as to which team he signed with and for how much. We also add a note if he received a $17.2 million qualifying offer. If a player receives one and signs elsewhere, the signing team will lose a draft pick, and having a qualifying offer "attached" can really hurt the value of non-elite free agents.
Now on to the rankings.
1-10 | 11-20 | 21-30 | 31-40 | 41-50
1. Yoenis Cespedes, OF
Age: 31 | B-T: R/R
HT: 5-10 | WT: 220
Career WAR: 18.7
By opting out of the remaining two years of his contract, Cespedes leaves nearly $48 million on the table but seems likely to get more than that on a longer-term deal as the offseason's best free agent (in a terrible class, of course).
Cespedes has really remade himself as a player, or at least seems to have done so, becoming far more selective in 2016 without losing any other aspect of his game. He posted his best walk rate ever, yet his strikeout rate and power didn't budge at all. The Mets asked him to play a lot of center field, even though he's incapable of coming within spitting distance of average out there, so his total-value stats, such as WAR, are misleading. He's not going to play center for a smart club in 2017, and that negative defensive value he posted in center will just go away.
Put him in right field, where he'll have average range and help you with his plus arm, and even if his newfound patience means a .340 OBP instead of .320, with his 30-homer power he's going to profile as a 4-5 win player. The market might overpay him because he's the best there is, and you're buying into his mid-30s, but four years and $80-90 million would probably give you a good overall return, even if the market wants to pay him $25-30 million per year instead.
SIGNED with Mets (4 years, $110 million)
2. Dexter Fowler, OF
Age: 30 | B-T: B/R
HT: 6-5 | WT: 195
Career WAR: 18.1
Fowler's decision to sign a one-year deal with the Cubs that included a "mutual" option, rather than a three-year deal with Baltimore that didn't include any sort of player opt-out, looks brilliant today as he turned in the best year of his career at the plate and played solid defense in center field, which should make him one of the most coveted position players on the market.
Fowler has always had a good eye at the plate and the raw tools to be a better hitter than he showed for Colorado but never made as much hard contact as he should have, and ended up bouncing around to the Astros and Cubs for a year apiece before this breakout season. He made some small adjustments late in 2015, pulling the ball more and getting to fastballs in on his hands more consistently, which this year produced his best line-drive rate since 2012 (which came in Denver) and his best park-adjusted power output ever.
Fowler's great defensive numbers this year might be boosted by the Cubs' best-in-majors work on positioning fielders, but he's probably no worse than an average defender in center on his own and should stay there for the length of a four-year deal. He's one of the only players on this market who's worth the $20 million-plus a year he's going to get, and if it takes four years and $90 million to get him, that's probably fair value given the industry's rising tide.
SIGNED with Cardinals (5 years, $82.5 million)
3. Justin Turner, 3B
Age: 31 | B-T: R/R
HT: 5-11 | WT: 205
Career WAR: 13.9
No, I don't believe Turner has suddenly become Brooks Robinson at third base despite the strong UZR and dRS numbers. The Dodgers are one of the best clubs at using Statcast data to position players, resulting in some great numbers for Turner and Corey Seager, good defenders who come off like Hall of Fame fielders.
But Turner has become an impact hitter, even improving his performance in some ways with increased playing time. He rarely makes poor-quality contact and can probably settle in as a 30-double, 20-homer guy for a few more years while playing above-average defense at third or possibly returning to second, though that isn’t recommended.
It's a little hard to believe that a player the Dodgers got as a minor league free agent could be in line for $20 million a year, but that's what an everyday player is going to cost going forward, especially this winter. If Turner's going to be the player I just described, he's worth that kind of money, although given his age and lack of track record I'd rather go three years.
Declined qualifying offer; SIGNED with Dodgers (4 years, $64 million)
4. Rich Hill, SP
Age: 36 | B-T: L/L
HT: 6-5 | WT: 220
Career WAR: 9.5
Hill was out of baseball early in 2015 when a conversation with the Red Sox's pro scouting director, Jared Porter, who now is in the same role for the Cubs, led to Hill moving his position on the rubber and becoming a totally different pitcher.
In a season-plus since his return from purgatory, Hill has posted a 2.00 ERA in 139 innings over 24 starts, striking out 165 guys and walking just 38. His curveball is one of the best in baseball, his fastball is solid-average, his change is solid-average, he gets out well over his front side, and starting toward third base gives him a lot of deception, especially against left-handed hitters.
He'll be 37 in March and has pitched one full, healthy major league season -- and 2016 wasn't it, with blister issues that kept cropping up and landed him on the DL. I don't know how much you can count on Hill going forward, but in this market he is by far the best starting pitching option, and I'd be willing to give him three years and -- gulp -- $50 million to see if he can be a solid No. 2.
SIGNED with Dodgers (3 years, $48 million)
5. Edwin Encarnacion, 1B/DH
Age: 33 | B-T: R/R
HT: 6-1 | WT: 230
Career WAR: 27.5
Encarnacion has posted five straight seasons of .500-plus slugging and 34-plus homers, drawing 70-plus walks in four of those years, but he's going to be 34 in 2017, and there were some cracks in the armor this past season that should keep teams from making offers that run too many years.
Encarnacion is a classic "old man's skills" player: walks, power, no defensive value, no speed, limited contact. He struck out a career-high 138 times and matched his career-high strikeout rate, and he has never been a particularly high BABIP guy anyway. So you're buying a guy who'll probably hit .240 or so with walks and power -- but a bit less of those things going forward -- and is best suited to DH duty. That might be a four-win player now and a two-win player at the end of a four-year deal, so while I'm sure he's looking for four years and $80-plus million, I'd stop short of both of those marks.
SIGNED with Cleveland (3 years, $60 million
6. Wilson Ramos, C
Age: 29 | B-T: R/R
HT: 6-1 | WT: 255
Career WAR: 9.9
Ramos was unplayable in 2015, posting a .258 OBP and .358 slugging percentage in 128 games as the Nats' catcher but bounced back to have a career season in his walk year, hitting .307/.354/.496 with career highs in doubles and homers as well as a big cut in his strikeout rate. He swung less often at pitches in and out of the zone and made contact more often when he did swing. If that sounds like a guy who's seeing the ball better, well, he probably was. Ramos had Lasik eye surgery in February and credits it with his improved performance and the fact that he became less of a free swinger.
He's an average receiver with mixed framing results and a plus arm, nailing 40 percent of opposing base stealers the past three years. Ramos tore his ACL in the final week of the regular season, which will probably put him out of action into some portion of the 2017 season and might affect his ability to remain behind the plate in the long term, although at this point this is all speculation. As the best catching option on the market when healthy, Ramos would probably be in line for a four-year, $60 million-plus deal but might end up taking a qualifying offer so he can head back into free agency without questions about his knee.
SIGNED with Rays (2 years, $12.5 million)
7. Neil Walker, 2B
Age: 31 | B-T: B/R
HT: 6-3 | WT: 210
Career WAR: 18.8
Walker was in the midst of a well-timed career year, tying his career high in homers and nearly matching his career high in OBP from 2010, when a back injury ended his season and threw his free agency into doubt.
When healthy, Walker does a little of everything at the plate -- some power, some OBP, some contact -- but not a ton of any one thing. He produces enough offense above league average to make up for his below-average defense at second base. His approach uses the whole field, and he has a long history of making line-drive contact to keep his value up even without overwhelming secondary skills, although he has always struggled with good velocity, and that might be getting worse as he enters his 30s.
Walker has never really had a position at all, struggling at third base before the Pirates bumped him to second in 2010, but could at least stand at the keystone and make the routine play. He had surgery in early September to repair a herniated disc in his back and is expected to be ready for the start of the 2017 season. The market might give him two to three years, but I wouldn't go above the qualifying offer, given his injury and some uncertainty about whether that performance, such as the career-high HR rate, is sustainable.
ACCEPTED qualifying offer with Mets (1 year, $17.2 million)
8. Kenley Jansen, RP
Age: 29 | B-T: B/R
HT: 6-5 | WT: 270
Career WAR: 11.8
Jansen has struck out 40 percent of the batters he has faced in his major league career, quietly putting himself in Aroldis Chapman and Andrew Miller territory while gradually improving his walk rate over the past several years so that he might now be the most valuable relief pitcher in baseball.
Jansen is the modern Mo Rivera, working almost exclusively with one pitch, the cut fastball, although whereas Rivera generated a lot of groundballs, Jansen misses more bats and gets weak air contact. His value is really just tied to how much he can pitch -- is he just a 65-70-inning reliever or can he maintain this effectiveness for more innings over fewer appearances? Could someone sign Jansen and make him a 90-inning reliever for a few years? That might make him a 12-win pitcher on a four-year deal, if healthy, and if you believe that's the case, then he should earn the highest salary ever for a reliever.
SIGNED with Dodgers (5 years, $80 million)
9. Josh Reddick, OF
Age: 29 | B-T: L/R
HT: 6-2 | WT: 195
Career WAR: 18.6
Reddick seemed destined for a big free-agent contract early in 2016, even in spite of a month-long DL stint in June for a broken hand, but a horrendous performance in August (.194 BABIP!) really dragged his season line down to where he was just slightly above-average overall as a hitter. He still made plenty of contact over the summer after coming back from the injury, but it wasn't quality contact. Even in September, he found success by hitting the ball on the ground more often rather than hitting for power.
He's no longer a defensive asset in a corner, although I'd be willing to bet he could be average with some positioning help. The real question is whether he can hit for average power going forward, 20-odd homers, which would imply that the power outage in 2016 was a result of the hand injury -- a reasonable suspicion. So are you buying the Reddick of the first two months of the season, figuring his hand strength will be back once he's 10 months past the injury? That version was probably headed for three years and $16-18 million per year, maybe more years, given that he'll play at age 30 in 2017, but his inconsistency this year and history of low OBPs might lower the market.
SIGNED with Astros (4 years, $52 million)
10. Ian Desmond, OF
Age: 31 | B-T: R/R
HT: 6-3 | WT: 215
Career WAR: 18.2
Desmond looked like the steal of the offseason when he started out the year hitting .322/.375/.524 in the first half after the Rangers signed him to a one-year, $8 million deal that also cost them their first-round draft pick.
But in the second half, Desmond returned to the player he'd been in 2015, hitting .237/.283/.347 after the All-Star break, even worse than the .233/.290/.384 he posted for Washington the previous year.
He did demonstrate unexpected value on defense, playing above-average defense in left and below-average but playable defense in center. That gave rise to the possibility he could be a modern-day Tony Phillips in the field, taking reps at maybe four or five positions. Phillips could really hit, though, especially in terms of getting on base, which has never been a strength for Desmond. He has never drawn 50 walks in a season or posted an OBP over this past year's .335. Which player is he? I'm betting on the low end of the scale. There's power upside here but too little contact and too few walks to expect more than league-average offense, and in left field, his best position, that's just not good enough. He has to return to shortstop to potentially be a $12-15 million per year player.
SIGNED with Rockies (5 years, $70 million)
1-10 | 11-20 | 21-30 | 31-40 | 41-50
11. Aroldis Chapman, RP
Age: 28 | B-T: L/L
HT: 6-4 | WT: 215
Career WAR: 13.4
Chapman has the best fastball in MLB history and has posted the highest strikeout rate, 42.6 percent of total batters faced, of any pitcher with at least 50 career innings pitched. He threw as hard this year as he ever has, and did so while walking guys at the lowest rate of his career. You know what you're getting here, and what I said about Kenley Jansen and the potential for more innings each season holds just as true here, perhaps more so, because Chapman was a starter while still in Cuba, whereas Jansen was a catcher who converted to relief pitching. In a baseball sense only, Chapman is a $15 million a year pitcher, at minimum.
There is more than a baseball sense to Chapman, however. He was accused of domestic violence last offseason, eventually admitted to firing his gun into his garage wall during an argument with his partner, and has had multiple previous off-field incidents, at least two of which have been reported in the media. If you want to say that character matters, you don't sign Chapman. If you decide that winning matters more than anything else, then yes, sign Chapman, because he's one of the best relief pitchers we have ever seen. But don't be surprised if his behavior off the field overshadows his work on it.
SIGNED with Yankees (5 years, $86 million)
12. Jeremy Hellickson, SP
Age: 29 | B-T: R/R
HT: 6-1 | WT: 190
Career WAR: 9.8
Go figure. Hellickson was a replacement-level starter in 2013 and 2015, with a year of injuries and further ineffectiveness in between, and he was pawned off by Arizona on the Phillies for a very low-level prospect just to clear Hellickson's salary. He ended up having his best year since 2012, setting a career high in strikeouts while tying his career high in innings.
Hellickson pitched less off his fastball, working more with his plus changeup and a restored cutter, which is a better application of his stuff because he has never had more than average velocity. While he has yet to reach 200 innings in any season, he has been durable enough the past two seasons to be someone's No. 4 starter, and some of his low innings count in 2015 was due to him struggling in Arizona the way Shelby Miller and others have. I don't think there are further gains here, but a 3-WAR starter is a valuable thing and worth the qualifying offer at least, or something like three years and $42-45 million on a long-term deal.
ACCEPTED qualifying offer with Phillies (1 year, $17.2 million)
13. Jason Castro, C
Age: 29 | B-T: L/R
HT: 6-3 | WT: 215
Career WAR: 9.5
Castro has been a cipher at the plate for three years now after a very promising start to his career, with a composite .215/.291/.369 over 1263 at-bats since the start of 2014 with a strikeout rate over 30 percent. He has made up for some of that deficiency by working on his pitch-framing to become an above-average framer, which, on top of his roughly average work throwing out baserunners, makes him about a two-win player. There's such a chronic shortage of catching that I don't think Castro will have trouble finding a long-term deal, maybe three years and $20 million or so, but I also don't see much upside here beyond a fringy regular unless he can suddenly start making more contact.
SIGNED with Twins (3 years, $24.5 million)
14. Carlos Beltran, DH/OF
Age: 39 | B-T: B/R
HT: 6-1 | WT: 215
Career WAR: 70.4
Carlos Beltran is a Hall of Famer. He could retire right now, and he'd be worthy, with 70 WAR already as well as more than 400 homers and 300 steals plus a career OBP over .350. Only four players in MLB history have done that: Beltran, Willie Mays, Barry Bonds, and Alex Rodriguez. Of those four, one is in the Hall, one should be and two aren't eligible yet. Beltran is done running, but he still has power and is still productive on both sides of the plate, although he has been more consistently so as a left-handed batter. He has become very limited on defense and would be better served as a DH for the past year or two of his career, but even in that role he'd be a multiple-win player, and if he'll sign for two years -- his age 40 and 41 seasons -- I'd give him $20 million.
SIGNED with Astros (1 year, $16 million)
15. Jose Bautista, OF
Age: 36 | B-T: R/R
HT: 6-0 | WT: 205
Career WAR: 34.8
Bautista isn't half the player he used to be. He was an MVP-caliber player in 2014, a star in 2015, and old and hurt in 2016. He heads into free agency at age 36 with a shadow hanging over his head. Like Encarnacion, Bautista is also sliding into "old man's skills" territory, with walks and patience and not much else.
Right field used to be such an easy place to play, but injuries and age might push him to first base or the DH spot as soon as this year. His bat looked slower when he did play this year, and teams have learned they can attack him with pure velocity, another sign that the troubles of age might be here to stay. The player Bautista was yesterday is gone, and this version, a two-win player without a place to hide away on the field, should be lucky to see two years and $16 million.
SIGNED with Blue Jays (1 year, $18 million)
16. Carlos Gomez, OF
Age: 30 | B-T: R/R
HT: 6-3 | WT: 220
Career WAR: 23.8
Gomez might be the ultimate upside play in the free-agent class. He was a top 10 position player in the NL in 2013-14, still productive for the first half of 2015, and then went to Houston and hit .221/.277/.342 for just under a year before the Astros gave up and released him, only to see him hit .284/.362/.543 for the Rangers in 130 plate appearances.
Gomez will turn 31 in December, too young to have completely lost his skills at the plate, but given how bad he was for a full calendar year for Houston, how much can we really buy into a hot month for Texas? He can still run and should still be average in center field. He still has power. While he strikes out a lot, it's nowhere near enough to explain the lost weekend he had for the Astros. Gomez might have been a four-year, $80-90 million player had he become a free agent after 2014, so discount appropriately and hope you hit the jackpot on a one- or two-year deal.
SIGNED with Rangers (1 year, $11.5 million)
17. Matt Wieters, C
Age: 30 | B-T: B/R
HT: 6-5 | WT: 230
Career WAR: 16.3
Wieters has never lived up to his billing as the fifth-overall draft pick in 2007 or as a prospect since he reached the majors in 2009. He peaked as a slightly above-league-average hitter and now heads back into free agency off the worst season of his career. He posted a .243/.302/.409 line in a season where the only teammate he outslugged was J.J. Hardy.
Wieters’ stock has also been hurt by the advent of catcher-framing statistics, which have revealed him to be among the worst everyday catchers at pitch framing in a time when the market highly values the skill. Now recovered from Tommy John surgery, Wieters seems to have his arm strength back but has regressed with the bat. A year after taking the Orioles' qualifying offer, he's re-entering the market with a worse platform year and more competition from free-agent catchers. The Orioles shouldn't make him another QO, and I don't think he's more than a two-year, $12-14 million signing to be a below-average but everyday catcher.
SIGNED with Nationals (2 years, $21 million)
18. Mark Trumbo, OF/1B
Age: 30 | B-T: R/R
HT: 6-4 | WT: 225
Career WAR: 9.6
Trumbo hit 47 home runs and was worth 1.6 WAR, according to Baseball Reference. It was the second-least-valuable 45-plus homer season in MLB history, better only than Jose Canseco's 1998 season for Toronto (46 HR, 1.6 WAR). That's because Trumbo had the worst OBP ever (.316) for a player who hit 45 or more homers and is a terrible defender in right field, where the Orioles asked him to play most of the time he was in the lineup.
The first part is on Trumbo, but the latter isn't quite his fault. He needs to DH, where he might struggle to post a .300 OBP but should be a fair bet for 30-40 homers in a full season. His second half for the Orioles, with a .214/.284/.470 line, was similar to his career line coming into the season and is probably a better indicator of what he'll do going forward. He made $9.15 million in 2016, and I'd give him the same amount again, or $15 million over two years, to see if the slight OBP gains he made in the first half are sustainable.
Declined qualifying offer
19. Daniel Hudson, RP
Age: 29 | B-T: R/R
HT: 6-3 | WT: 230
Career WAR: 3.6
Hudson came back from two Tommy John surgeries to pitch well in 2015, but his ERA ballooned to 5.22 in 2016 largely because the Diamondbacks were such a bad defensive outfit, both in players and in lack of defensive positioning. His stuff remains intact -- a mid-90s fastball, a plus changeup, an average slider -- and his command is more than good enough for him to be a league-average reliever, with some upside if he's in a better environment. If a team is looking for a closer but doesn't want to pay retail for Kenley Jansen or deal with the character questions of Aroldis Chapman, Hudson's a very appealing alternative who should see immediate improvement just by getting out of the desert.
SIGNED with Pirates (2 years, $11 million)
20. Ivan Nova, SP
Age: 29 | B-T: R/R
HT: 6-5 | WT: 235
Career WAR: 9.7
Nova has always had No. 2-3 starter type stuff, with plenty of velocity, good life on his two-seamer, and a power curveball that looked good enough to miss bats. He never had anything close to the command to live up to his stuff, and his lack of a decent changeup has meant left-handed hitters have crushed him the past two years.
Then he got to Pittsburgh and turned into this year's J.A. Happ, throwing strikes at the highest rate of his career and walking just three out of 263 batters faced after the Yankees traded him to the Pirates. It was his best stretch of pitching overall since 2013, and he had a level of control he has never displayed before. Happ didn't retain much of his gains, if any, after leaving the Pirates to sign with the Blue Jays, but I'm more optimistic about Nova's success, because his raw stuff was already good enough for him to succeed. There's downside risk here, but $8-9 million a year for two years should factor that in, maybe a little more to reflect the paucity of starter options in this free-agent class.
RE-SIGNED with Pirates (3 years, $26 million)
1-10 | 11-20 | 21-30 | 31-40 | 41-50
21. Luis Valbuena, 3B/1B
Age: 30 | B-T: L/R
HT: 5-10 | WT: 215
Career WAR: 8.9
Valbuena was in the midst of a career year of his own when a torn hamstring ended his season in late July, requiring surgery that probably also ended his tenure with Houston. Valbuena's walk-rate spike in 2016 was the main reason he was on track for career-high WAR totals, but even his previous levels of power and patience would make him a potential regular at third base for any team willing to live with slightly below-average defense. He's also a solid bench piece who can fill in at second or first and provide some pop against right-handed pitching. The market might pay him more than this but I'd rather stick to a year and $8 million-$10 million given the chance the injury makes him a worse defender anywhere but first.
22. Angel Pagan, OF
Age: 35 | B-T: B/R
HT: 6-2 | WT: 200
Career WAR: 17.0
Pagan hitting a career-high 12 homers in his age 33 season might polish his resume a little for free agency, but everything else here is pointing toward age-related decline, including decreasing range in the outfield (around a hamstring strain) that had the Giants play him primarily in left rather than center in 2016. If that power spike is just a one-year fluke, as it appears to be, Pagan's a quality fourth outfielder with great contact rates but probably not an everyday player due to his slipping defense.
23. Mark Melancon, RP
Age: 31 | B-T: R/R
HT: 6-2 | WT: 210
Career WAR: 9.6
Melancon is only 31 but has probably already seen his peak years go by, with a noticeable drop in several key indicators between 2014 and 2016. He's still an extreme strike-thrower who gets a ton of ground balls, and a solid piece of a late-game relief corps, but not the type of reliever who could stretch out the way Andrew Miller and Aroldis Chapman did this postseason, and given Melancon's long history of injuries before 2013, I wouldn't give him more than one year.
SIGNED with Giants (4 years, $62 million)
24. Charlie Morton, SP
Age: 32 | B-T: R/R
HT: 6-5 | WT: 235
Career WAR: -0.8
Morton made three-plus starts for the Phillies in April before blowing out his hamstring in start No. 4, ending his season, which is a shame because he looked as if he was a completely new pitcher -- throwing harder than ever and getting batters to pound the ball into the ground. A full season like that would have netted him $15 million a year on a multiyear deal, but he didn't get the chance to show he could sustain that stuff and I expect some caution even in a marketplace short on decent starters. He has a better resume going into 2017 than Rich Hill had going into 2016, and I'd give Morton two years on a bet that at least some of the uptick was real.
SIGNED with Astros (2 years, $14 million)
25. Bartolo Colon, SP
Age: 43 | B-T: R/R
HT: 5-11 | WT: 285
Career WAR: 49.5
If you never walk anybody and you don't give up too many home runs, you can probably pitch forever, as shown by Colon the past few years. His average fastball velocity was its lowest ever in 2016, yet he posted his sixth straight season of 150-plus innings and a FIP under 4. If he loses much more velocity, the whole thing might fall apart, but I'd sign him to a series of one-year deals until it does.
SIGNED with Braves (1 year, $12.5 million)
26. Steve Pearce, 1B/2B/OF
Age: 33 | B-T: R/R
HT: 5-11 | WT: 200
Career WAR: 8.5
Pearce's 2014 season is one of the bigger flukes we've seen in the past 10 years; he posted a 5.9 WAR per Baseball-Reference, then followed it up with a sub-.300 OBP that had him below replacement level in 92 games. In 2016, he bounced back a bit thanks to some judicious usage in Tampa Bay that had him avoid the toughest right-handed pitchers, but that just highlights his ideal role as a right-handed-hitting bench option who doesn't have any real value on defense. A year and a million or two is the most I'd pay for that given the lack of roster spots for reserve position players.
SIGNED with Blue Jays (2 years, $12.5 million)
27. Edinson Volquez, SP
Age: 33 | B-T: R/R
HT: 6-0 | WT: 220
Career WAR: 5.9
Volquez couldn't replicate the magic trick he pulled with the Royals in 2015, as his control and stuff regressed just enough for him to add about two runs to his ERA. He has had a nice second act as a sinkerballer, but he doesn't throw enough strikes or keep the ball down quite consistently enough to be more than a fifth starter. It's not out of the question that he improves in one of those areas and finds some success, but given his history of even higher walk rates, it seems unlikely.
SIGNED with Marlins (2 years, $22 million)
28. Brad Ziegler, RP
Age: 37 | B-T: R/R
HT: 6-4 | WT: 220
Career WAR: 14.1
Ziegler's midseason trade from Arizona to Boston didn't bother him one bit -- in fact, getting out of the altitude of Phoenix might have helped him a bit -- and even at 36 he seems a safe bit to hold this performance for a while longer. Ziegler works in the mid-80s from a very low arm slot, so it's hard for hitters to drive the ball in the air against him, and he throws a ton of strikes (don't let the intentional walks in his walk total fool you). As a late-game reliever with closer experience, he's a good bargain option compared to the Jansen/Chapman tier.
SIGNED with Marlins (2 years, $16 million)
29. Jhoulys Chacin, SP/RP
Age: 28 | B-T: R/R
HT: 6-3 | WT: 215
Career WAR: 14.6
Chacin quietly did solid back-end starter work for the Angels in 2016, although he was substantially worse with men on base as he would become too two-seamer heavy from the stretch instead of sticking with the slider, which developed into a real out pitch for him. If he ever advances to even just average control, he could be a league-average starter, but his walk rates and general inconsistency in his pitch mix keep him below that for now.
SIGNED with Padres (1 year, $1.75 million)
30. Jason Hammel, SP
Age: 34 | B-T: R/R
HT: 6-6 | WT: 225
Career WAR: 12.9
Hammel's season ended in late September because of elbow tightness and he didn't pitch at all in October as a result, so there's a question mark hanging over him as he heads back into free agency. When healthy, he's a two-seamer/slider right-hander who has some trouble with left-handed hitters (.239/.342/.455 in 2016) and doesn't get the ground balls pitchers of this archetype are supposed to get. He's a little too volatile to be a credible fourth starter in a good rotation but is durable enough to be a quality five.
SIGNED with Royals (2 years, $16 million)
1-10 | 11-20 | 21-30 | 31-40 | 41-50
31. Michael Saunders, OF
Age: 29 | B-T: L/R
HT: 6-4 | WT: 225
Career WAR: 6.4
Saunders was, is and remains a capable extra guy, a lefty bat off the bench who can handle either corner and needs a platoon partner. He had a huge first half, ended up in the All-Star Game, and couldn't buy a hit after it. Any team buying into him as a regular off those great three and a half months is projecting too much.
SIGNED by Phillies (1 year, $8 million with an $11 million club option for 2018)
32. Brett Anderson, SP
Age: 28 | B-T: L/L
HT: 6-3 | WT: 230
Career WAR: 7.3
Anderson was a league-average starter for 180 innings in 2015, came back on the qualifying offer in 2016, and was hurt just about the entire year outside of four abortive appearances when he probably wasn't healthy enough to be pitching. I've always believed in Anderson's stuff and feel for pitching, so I'd err on the high side on a one-year offer, hoping to capture a few healthy months, because when he's been "right" enough to pitch in his career he has had solid results.
33. Doug Fister, SP
Age: 32 | B-T: L/R
HT: 6-8 | WT: 210
Career WAR: 19.2
The Astros' one-year gamble on Fister worked out, sort of. They got about 1 WAR and 180 innings out of Fister, which is worth the $7 million they paid him given the paucity of starter options on the market, but they didn't get any upside or return to form for Fister, who is just going to pitch with a grade-40 fastball from now on. He's throwing more two-seamers, which is good, but walking more guys as he pitches away from contact, which is bad. The formula for a guy with this stuff is to never walk anyone and hope the homers come with the bases empty. He's a fifth starter, a $5 million-$7 million guy on a one-year deal, but no more.
34. Chase Utley, 2B
Age: 37 | B-T: L/R
HT: 6-1 | WT: 195
Career WAR: 64.4
I'm not sure what the market is for a platoon second baseman, but Utley was pretty good in that role, hitting .273/.343/.425 against right-handed pitching and playing nearly average defense. He's 38 and could be done as a hitter at any moment, but given the production he showed in 2016, he's a good fit on a one-year, $5 million or so deal for any team that has a left-handed hitting option to caddy for him.
35. Brandon Moss, OF/1B
Age: 33 | B-T: L/R
HT: 6-1 | WT: 210
Career WAR: 5.8
Moss gave the Cardinals just 1.0 WAR in a year-plus with the team, as he has no real position anymore and doesn't get on base enough. He's a platoon first baseman whom you can stick in an outfield corner and hope he doesn't have to move much, a player with a limited market at this point, but who has enough power that he's worth a bench spot to a team that skews right-handed.
SIGNED with Royals (2 years, $12 million)
36. Colby Rasmus, OF
Age: 30 | B-T: L/L
HT: 6-2 | WT: 195
Career WAR: 18.3
Rasmus had an injury-plagued, nonproductive year in 2016, and he recently had hip and core muscle surgery that might prevent him from working out till January. He has become a good defender in left and averaged 22 homers a year with a .452 slugging from 2012 to 2015, but he never has developed a good approach at the plate and is probably a one-year guy with a low base, $3 million-$4 million, and incentives if he's healthy and effective enough to earn regular playing time.
SIGNED with Rays (1 year, $5 million)
37. Koji Uehara, RP
Age: 41 | B-T: R/R
HT: 6-2 | WT: 195
Career WAR: 13.6
Still effective in his age-41 season, Uehara seems likely to get homered out of baseball before too much longer, as he's pitching with a 40 fastball now and can't get away with pitches up in the zone the way he once did. He's still an extreme control guy who gets a lot of pop-ups, and there's a role for that guy in the middle innings, just not in high-leverage work anymore. Uehara has walked 60 batters unintentionally in 437 career major-league innings; 16 American League pitchers walked more guys than that in 2016 alone.
SIGNED with Cubs (1 year, $6 million)
38. Jorge De La Rosa, SP
Age: 35 | B-T: L/L
HT: 6-1 | WT: 215
Career WAR: 13.9
De La Rosa's window for success might have already closed, and the Rockies certainly missed a few chances to flip him for pieces with longer-term value over the past four years. His stuff has declined and he has been using a cutter more frequently to counteract the drop in velocity, but none of it will matter if he doesn't start throwing more strikes. I'd take a low-dollar flyer on him just to see if getting him away from Denver changes his approach, but there isn't the same upside there was two or three years ago.
39. Andrew Cashner, SP
Age: 30 | B-T: R/R
HT: 6-6 | WT: 235
Career WAR: 2.9
Cashner has qualified for the ERA title only twice as a big leaguer, and only one of those seasons was truly above average, his 2013 campaign where he posted a 3.09 ERA/3.35 FIP. His stuff backed up around some injuries in 2016, and I think he'd be an ideal candidate to convert to the bullpen, which is where I always thought he'd end up given arm problems he had before 2013. He could show two or three plus pitches in a leveraged relief role and perhaps could be used for longer stints given his experience as a starter.
SIGNED with Rangers (1 year, $10 million)
40. Fernando Rodney, RP
Age: 39 | B-T: R/R
HT: 5-11 | WT: 230
Career WAR: 6.9
Rodney was insanely good in the first half, got traded to Miami, and proceeded to walk 22 guys (unintentionally) in 36 2/3 innings for the Marlins. He still throws in the mid-90s with a great changeup, but if he's your closer, well, gird your loins.
SIGNED with Diamondbacks (1 year, $2.75 million)
1-10 | 11-20 | 21-30 | 31-40 | 41-50
41. Jonathan Papelbon, RP
Age: 35 | B-T: R/R
HT: 6-5 | WT: 230
Career WAR: 23.7
I doubt Papelbon is done, even with his release at the end of August and decision not to sign with another team, but he's definitely diminished, and if he wants to keep pitching it'll be in a middle relief role. He still throws his fastball for plenty of strikes, but he'll need to use the splitter and/or slider a little more to keep hitters from getting too comfortable now that his velocity is just average. I could see him giving someone 50-60 innings of average relief work on a one-year deal.
42. Derek Holland, SP
Age: 30 | B-T: B/L
HT: 6-2 | WT: 215
Career WAR: 10.3
He's big and left-handed and hasn't had a healthy season since 2013, with a career-low 14.5 percent strikeout rate in 2016. I'd look at Holland not as a definite rotation option, but as someone to sign after I've got five starters lined up, an upside play where I hope I can get four healthy months out of him where his velocity is back because he's not pitching hurt.
SIGNED with White Sox (1 year, $6 million base with $2 million in incentives)
43. Brett Cecil, RP
Age: 30 | B-T: R/L
HT: 6-3 | WT: 235
Career WAR: 6.9
I think Cecil was slightly miscast as a lefty specialist in 2016. His platoon split this year was small given the number of batters he faced, and he didn't have the same split in 2014-15. He has the weapons to get left- and right-handed batters out and I like him as a middle-relief signing who might be good enough for higher-leverage work.
SIGNED with Cardinals (4 years, $30.5 million)
44. Rajai Davis, OF
Age: 36 | B-T: R/R
HT: 5-10 | WT: 195
Career WAR: 11.3
A mediocre-at-best hitter who can really run and can handle center, Davis might owe his continued career to advanced defensive metrics and the general increase in awareness of what a good defense can do for a team -- such as Davis' 2016 employer, Cleveland, getting to the World Series. His minimal offensive output makes him a better extra outfielder than regular for me, but he could be a second-division team's everyday guy in center.
SIGNED with A's (1 year, $6 million)
45. Jon Jay, OF
Age: 31 | B-T: L/L
HT: 5-11 | WT: 195
Career WAR: 12.0
Jay was in the midst of a solid bounce-back season that should have set him up for a multiyear deal when he broke his forearm at the end of June, missing nearly two months and, not surprisingly, hitting for zero power (.052 ISO) after his return. He could be someone's everyday center fielder, where his defense is somewhat average, but you'll live and die with his BABIP, as he's not patient and has never had that much power. As a fourth outfielder who might get 400 at-bats, though, he'd be outstanding.
SIGNED with Chicago Cubs (1 year, $8 million)
46. Sean Rodriguez, IF/OF
Age: 31 | B-T: R/R
HT: 6-0 | WT: 200
Career WAR: 9.5
Rodriguez played seven positions for the Pirates in 2016 -- everywhere but pitcher and catcher -- and hit a career-high 18 homers albeit with a career-high 29.8 percent strikeout rate. He sold out for harder contact and got it, but at the cost of less contact overall. A utility guy who can really play in the middle infield and has some pop and some patience is a solid player to have on the bench, even with the chance that he might struggle to hit .200 for you.
SIGNED with Braves (2 years, $11 million)
47. Pedro Alvarez, DH
Age: 29 | B-T: L/R
HT: 6-3 | WT: 250
Career WAR: 5.9
Alvarez had only 41 plate appearances against lefties in 2016, which is the right way to use him, and posted a .251/.326/.522 line against right-handed pitching (with a small boost from Camden Yards). He's a DH-only guy, unplayable at third and below average at first, but if you need a platoon DH/bench bat who can smack around right-handers for some power, he's one of several options on the market this winter.
48. Yunel Escobar, 3B
Age: 34 | B-T: R/R
HT: 6-2 | WT: 215
Career WAR: 26.4
Escobar had his usual season at the plate -- high average, few strikeouts, not many walks, mostly doubles power -- and for the second year in a row he was just awful on defense at third base. He might have to move to the outfield, although I might try him at second base, where his slow reaction times would be less of an issue. If that fails, though, his bat won't make him a regular in left or right field, and he becomes a nice utility guy who shouldn't play in non-emergencies at shortstop or third.
2017 option PICKED UP by Angels (1 year, $7 million)
49. Greg Holland, RP
Age: 30 | B-T: R/R
HT: 5-10 | WT: 205
Career WAR: 9.9
Royals manager Ned Yost absolutely wore out Holland in 2014 and '15, culminating in Holland's elbow explosion at the end of the latter year. He missed all of 2016 following Tommy John surgery. When healthy, Holland was a strike-thrower with mid-90s velocity and an out-pitch slider, and hitters had a hard time squaring him up. Year 1 after surgery might not be smooth, but he could probably provide 40-50 innings of above-average relief, with an eye toward a full recovery in 2018, assuming his stuff returns completely post-surgery.
50. Aaron Hill, 3B/2B
Age: 34 | B-T: R/R
HT: 5-11 | WT: 200
Career WAR: 24.7
Hill is probably stretched as an everyday guy but could handle third base enough for a second-division team. He's best suited as a utility infielder who can play third or second base well enough to fill in for long spells and can serve as an emergency shortstop. I don't think it's a coincidence that his patience seemed to return after he got out of Arizona.