In Saturday's five-player trade with the Milwaukee Brewers, the Arizona Diamondbacks think they just traded a prospect for a major league shortstop and top-of-the-order hitter. Unfortunately, as they're soon to find out, Jean Segura is neither of those things, and he hasn't been for two and a half years now.
Segura had a huge first half for Milwaukee in 2013, hitting for unexpected power that couldn't and didn't last; since that year's All-Star break, he has hit .250/.282/.328 in 1,367 plate appearances, which puts him way below the MLB average for shortstops in 2015 (.260/.308/.380). In fact, only two full-time shortstops in 2015 had lower OBPs than Segura did … and he's replacing one of them in Nick Ahmed (.275). But at least Ahmed can play the heck out of shortstop, whereas Segura is below average, if you're charitable; he's a second baseman masquerading as a shortstop, if you're not. Even at second base, his bat doesn't profile well, although he'll be less of a liability on defense.
Alexei Ramirez, who just signed a one-year deal with the San Diego Padres as a free agent after the Chicago White Sox non-tendered him, had a better year on offense and defense than Segura in 2015. But the D-backs passed on Ramirez and traded for Segura, who has produced only 0.6 rWAR (Baseball-Reference WAR) or 0.2 fWAR (FanGraphs WAR) over the past two years, which is fancy analytics speak for saying he's barely a major league-level player, much less anyone's idea of a starter.
Arizona could also have signed Howie Kendrick and left Ahmed at short, spending more money and giving up a second-round draft pick (their first-rounder is gone due to their signing of Zack Greinke), which would have been a better move than this one. Segura once had promise, but two and a half years of lacking performance has wiped that out.
The Diamondbacks did save about $6 million on Aaron Hill's contract, which is relevant here, except that they've already given away a prospect (Touki Toussaint, their 2014 first-round pick) to clear money in a previous deal, which is starting to look like a pattern.
The Diamondbacks flat-out lost this deal on value, trading their fourth-best prospect, Isan Diaz, as well as a decent fifth starter in Chase Anderson, although they did get a potential fifth-starter replacement in Tyler Wagner.
Diaz is the prize here for Milwaukee, an offense-first shortstop who will almost certainly move to second or third base in time. He has a simple, clean swing and a very good idea at the plate, showing a more advanced approach in pro ball than amateur scouts expected after scouting him against weak competition in western Massachusetts while he was in high school. He has played mostly shortstop in pro ball, but while a move to second base seems obvious, he did play third base at some showcases as an amateur and looked more than adequate there. He'll go to the low-A Midwest League at age 20 coming off a .360/.436/.640 year in hitter-friendly Missoula (rookie ball), and he adds to an increasingly stacked Brewers farm system.
Anderson, meanwhile, could be Milwaukee's fifth starter this year. He has a plus-plus changeup and a very true fastball that has always made him prone to the long ball, but he throws enough strikes and gets enough outs with the change to be just what he was last year -- a fifth starter worth a bit more than replacement level. New Diamondbacks prospect Wagner might become that in time, but I like him a little better in the bullpen because I don't think he has an out pitch right now to turn over a lineup three times.
Milwaukee trading Segura probably means we will see their top prospect, shortstop Orlando Arcia, at some point this season. He dominated Double-A, and his feel for the game is so advanced that I think he could handle an immediate call-up, although service-time considerations probably mean we won't see him until at least May.
The Diamondbacks are probably contenders in the NL West right now, but this deal doesn't make them any better. And they can't keep giving away prospects without getting sufficient return, or they will eventually find the cupboard bare and their major league team too old to compete.