In any year of Johnny Cueto's six-year contract in which the San Francisco Giants get the good version of him -- the one we saw in 2012, 2014 and the first half of 2015 -- this deal will look like a bargain for the club. I just have no idea how often that iteration of Cueto is going to show up, and since his elbow flared up mid-2015 and he struggled down the stretch, I'm inclined to think they're going to get the wrong version as often as they get the right one.
As I wrote in my free-agent capsule on Cueto -- I ranked him ninth in this year's FA class -- if "Cueto is healthy, I've got him too low, and if he's not healthy, then I have him too high," and that's all still true. Without knowing exactly what's going on in Cueto's elbow, and what the cause was of his sudden inconsistency and occasional awfulness, I can't tell you whether this is a good deal or not. It seems like it prices Cueto as a low-risk commodity -- that is, as if he's going to have at least four of those "True Cueto" years out of six in the deal (ignoring the opt-out after the second year. … I'll address that in a moment). I don't know how realistic that is, but based on the history of free-agent starters, and the Occam's Razor-like philosophy that pitchers who've been hurt will probably get hurt again, it looks like it's too optimistic.
Cueto in AT&T Park could be a blast, though. When he's on, he's an outstanding pitcher in any environment, but he seems especially suited to a big ballpark. Before going to Kansas City, Cueto worked with a lot of four-seamers up above batters' hitting zones, a spot where, if any pitcher misses, it's likely to end up in the seats. Since 2005, no Giants pitcher has given up more than 24 homers in a full season (Barry Zito gave up 24 in 2007), and there are only 19 pitcher seasons in which a Giant has given up even 20 homers; Madison Bumgarner, a reasonably good pitcher, has led the team in homers allowed the past two seasons with 21. I can't promise you that Cueto will give up fewer homers in AT&T Park, but given his specific style of pitching, I like the move for him.
That said, Cueto also didn't throw enough strikes after he arrived in Kansas City, and the reason isn't known, at least not to us. The Giants seem to be betting that the True Cueto will return for 2016 and beyond, and they might be placing a particular bet that he'll be healthy and effective enough in Years 1 and 2 that he'll opt out and spare them what could be some ugly subsequent years. Player opt-outs are bad deals for teams on paper, but in Cueto's specific case, in which he might be a terrible long-term risk but an acceptable short-term one, I can at least see San Francisco's argument in favor of giving him the opt-out and making it fairly early within the deal.
The Giants' rotation looks much better now than it did two months ago, with Bumgarner and Cueto at the top, Jeff Samardzija at least soaking up innings in the No. 3 spot and Jake Peavy asked to do less in the fourth spot. They've indicated Chris Heston may become a swingman, the way they used Yusmeiro Petit the past few years. I love this strategy, especially given increasing awareness of the times-through-the-order penalty faced by starters. They still have Clayton Blackburn potentially ready to handle the fifth spot, and while I don't foresee any value from Matt Cain, I assume he'll earn a chance to claim that opening in spring training.
That rotation could easily be six or seven wins better than what they ran out there in 2014, maybe more if they see above-median seasons from Cueto and Samardzija, and puts them in the same general range as Arizona for projections for 2015, probably even a tick ahead of the Diamondbacks even with the latter team's big moves for pitching.