The Red Sox had one overarching need this winter, and it wasn't a closer. It was a legitimate top-of-the-rotation, difference-making starter, preferably one with some history of durability. There were two such pitchers available, and the Red Sox landed the one who wouldn't require them to give up their first-round draft pick.
David Price is an ace, regardless of what you might have heard about his performances in October. His regular-season body of work tells an accurate story. He's a five-win starter who has reached 200 innings in five of six full seasons as a big leaguer, who hasn't posted an ERA above 3.50 in any of those seasons, and who might very well have been the best starter in the American League in 2015. The Red Sox get him at the peak of his career, with no immediate warning signs that he's going to slide any time soon.
Boston's best starter going into 2016 might have been Eduardo Rodriguez, who enters his second season. Whomever it was going to be, he wasn't going to be nearly as productive as Price should be. Price's acquisition probably adds four wins to the Red Sox in 2016 and for each of the next few years beyond that, and should be the impetus for moving Joe Kelly to the bullpen; Kelly is a below-average starter whose profile looks very well-suited to short relief work.
The $31 million average annual value (AAV) on this deal is quite reasonable, considering Boston is one of the highest-revenue clubs, in win-now mode and acquiring a five-win pitcher who has had years where he's been worth more than six wins. While Price is likely to decline over the course of the deal, he has the control and mixture of off-speed weapons to potentially weather any gradual loss of velocity as he gets into his 30s. Boston's farm system is still very strong, but it's much deeper in bats than in arms. This deal papers over that minor deficiency and allows the Red Sox to keep the 12th overall pick in next June's draft, assuming they don't sign a free agent who does have compensation attached. The deal is expensive and carries the risk that all starting pitchers carry, but it's for the player the Red Sox needed most out of all available free agents.
This has to set some sort of bar for Zack Greinke, the other ace available in free agency this winter, although Greinke does have draft-pick compensation attached and it's at least an open debate whether he or Price is the more valuable asset. (I ranked Greinke one spot above Price, so I'm arguing he's the more valuable player, but I could be convinced that they should be in the opposite order.) I think Greinke's a $30 million player to a large-market contender, especially now that we see David Price is, and he should be able to ask for a deal of at least six years. On cost alone, that has to eliminate most potential suitors; only a few, such as the Dodgers or perhaps the Giants, could afford that large a deal and assume the inherent risk.
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The Red Sox also signed outfielder Chris Young to a two-year, $13 million contract this week. The deal isn't that far above what I thought he'd be worth -- acknowledging that the market tends to pay guys more, courtesy of the winner's curse -- but doesn't seem to fit Boston's roster that well. Young is a right-handed hitter who kills lefties, but the Red Sox don't really need a right-handed-hitting platoon outfielder unless they intend to deal Rusney Castillo, who hits right-handed and hasn't done much to date, or platoon Young with Jackie Bradley Jr., who hits left-handed but shouldn't be relegated to strict platoon duty so soon. That said, there are probably enough at-bats to go around with the addition of Young if you assume someone will get hurt, or that the Sox might want to give David Ortiz more days off, or that Mookie Betts could return to the infield. It's decent value for a very useful role player.