The first significant trade of the 2015-16 offseason is upon us, with the Minnesota Twins perhaps taking a bit of my advice (note: not really), using center fielder Aaron Hicks as bait to land something they needed, acquiring catcher John Ryan Murphy from the New York Yankees in a one-for-one swap.
The Twins had a surplus in the outfield, especially in center, with four players who are major-league ready and could credibly play the position in Hicks, Byron Buxton, Eddie Rosario and Max Kepler. Buxton's the best defender of the group, with Hicks not far behind, but Hicks' value would take a hit if he moved to a corner, and the Twins have quite a few corner outfield options anyway, with the logjam even worse if they do end up signing Byung Ho Park. That made Hicks an ideal asset to use to fill another hole; I had speculated they would go for pitching, but they did something even better, addressing the black hole they had behind the plate.
Twins catchers hit an aggregate .224/.287/.308 in 2015 and threw out 19 percent of opposing runners, with starter Kurt Suzuki playing replacement-level ball for $6 million. He's owed the same for 2016, but credit the Twins with recognizing that as a sunk cost and acquiring a better player in Murphy, whose acquisition could easily make the Twins a full win better right away, likely more if his defense is as good as I think it is.
Murphy converted to catching late in his high school career, so much of his early pro tenure involved working on learning the position -- he had the soft hands and strong arm to play the position but needed work on receiving and game-calling. He should be at least average at controlling the running game, with the arm strength to do more, and I think he'll end up an above-average receiver and framer given time. At the plate, Murphy has a quiet approach that produces a lot of contact thanks to his very short path to the ball; he's unlikely to hit for much power barring a swing change, but I do think the low OBPs he's shown the last two years might improve as he gets regular playing time, since he was reasonably disciplined before he became the Yanks' de facto backup. I've long held that he'd be someone's everyday catcher, just probably not the Yankees', and it made little sense for the Yanks to keep him as a backup when they could use him to fill another need.
Hicks, the Twins' No. 1 pick in the 2008 draft, was rushed to the majors to start 2013, when his glove was ready but his bat wasn't; he re-emerged in late spring this past season and established himself as a major-league regular in center, with plenty of upside remaining in the bat and glove. Hicks is a plus runner with a 70 arm (on the 20-80 scouting scale) and shows the potential to be a 70 defender in center, while at the plate he's always had a decent approach with a willingness to work the count. He did nothing against right-handed pitching in 2015, but that's out of line with his high-minors performances. There's certainly some volatility here -- he has less than a full season as a quality big leaguer under his belt -- but there's also some star potential, which Murphy doesn't provide. The deal makes sense for both sides, since each club filled a need, but the Yankees probably dealt a little more certainty for a little more upside.
As for that need, the Yankees have two very expensive center fielders on the roster right now, but I think they'd prefer not to have either one patrolling the position in 2016. Jacoby Ellsbury looked like toast in 2015, especially in the field, and likely has to move to a corner even if there is still life left in the bat. Brett Gardner can handle center, but I think he's more likely to stay healthy in left, where his defense has always been stellar, and there's plenty of chatter now that he's on the trade block anyway. Hicks is a significant defensive improvement over either guy, and if I'm right about his reads and range continuing to improve, he could add a win of value just with his glove, while also developing at the plate. And he makes the minimum salary for another year before hitting arbitration, when he won't be that expensive given how poorly he played in his first two years of partial service. It's an old-fashioned baseball deal of two players who fit their new clubs better than their old ones. So if you're looking for me to declare a winner, I'm sorry to disappoint you.