The New York Yankees and Miami Marlins executed a surprising swap on Friday morning, with the Yankees sending erstwhile second baseman Martin Prado to Miami for right-handed starter Nate Eovaldi, as part of a five-player deal.
Eovaldi is a durable, two-pitch starter who's always had issues with left-handed hitters, especially in terms of power -- not the ideal fit for a team that plays half its games at Yankee Stadium. He's got a huge fastball that can touch 100 mph and sits pretty comfortably in the 95-96 range, although it's relatively straight, and his best secondary pitch is the mid-80s slider, although its break isn't as sharp as you'd expect given its velocity. He'll show a curveball and a changeup, both below-average pitches, and he doesn't have a good put-away option for lefties. He's built like a starter, carrying just short of 200 innings this past season, and has the velocity and durability to remain a starter; he just has to find something so that he doesn't allow 30-plus homers a year in the American League. I'd rather run him out there 30-plus times than Chris Capuano (recently signed by the Yankees to a small, one-year deal) but I wouldn't view Eovaldi as a finished product, either.
The Yankees also added right-hander Domingo German -- who should just go by the single name “Sonntag,” if you think about it -- a 22-year-old right-hander who sits in the mid-90s with an above-average breaking ball and below-average changeup. German, who pitched in the low Class A Sally League in 2014, throws a lot of strikes, with control more than command, but as a 40-man player already he'll have to see a two-level jump at some point in the next two years. They also landed Garrett Jones, a fringy bench bat with power against right-handed pitching but no value against lefties or in the field.
In exchange, the Marlins get fifth starter David Phelps, who gets by with average stuff but neither a true out pitch nor the kind of command he'd need to succeed with his kind of velocity. They also add Martin Prado, a solid-average regular who should become their everyday third baseman. The Marlins now have a credible regular at every position on the field, replacing Casey McGehee (who regressed to his usual self in the second half) with Prado and a cast of replacement-level options with Dee Gordon. The rotation is stronger with the swap of Eovaldi for Mat Latos, although they're counting on guys like Jarred Cosart (better fit for relief work) or Dan Haren (might retire, and who could blame him?) to fill out its back end. It's a more competitive Marlins team, especially once Jose Fernandez returns, but not close to the Nationals on paper yet.
The Yankees seem to be inching toward a full rotation of their own, although they'll be counting on CC Sabathia and Masahiro Tanaka to come back healthy and produce right away, as well as on Michael Pineda to make 20-25 starts. While GM Brian Cashman appeared to throw water on the rumors that they'll bid for Max Scherzer, then to cover them with a lid to cut off their oxygen supply, it makes far more sense for the Yankees to sign Scherzer than for them to pursue any other starter. He'd make them five to six wins better in 2015, minimizing the use of replacement-level options like Capuano or Adam Warren. While the back end of any Scherzer contract will probably be ugly, I'd be willing to bet hard on him delivering 12-plus wins in the first three years. It's their fastest route back to contention and wouldn't cost them any of the prospects in their recovering farm system. The Yankees' financial advantage has been blunted of late because fewer elite players reach free agency; until the Aaron Judges and the Greg Birds reach the Bronx, it is imperative that the Yankees use their resources when an elite player actually does hit the open market. With Jon Lester signed, Scherzer is the only such player remaining.
Dealing Prado also leaves the Yanks without a major league second baseman on their roster. They could fill the spot with prospect Rob Refsnyder, a converted outfielder who finished 2014 in Triple A, and rookie Jose Pirela, a versatile utility player who has played every position but catcher in the past three seasons in the minors. Refsnyder's a fringy defender at second, maybe still below-average, and provides value as a high-contact hitter who hits for average with adequate power and a middling (.330-.340) OBP. He murdered lefties last year, and if the Yankees had a left-handed-hitting platoon mate for him, they could get a ton of value from the position for minimal investment. However, with their evident emphasis on defense on the left side of the infield, I'd be surprised if they were willing to give Refsnyder everyday at-bats on the other side of second base.