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          Indianapolis Colts' schedule 2023: Takeaways, predictions

          Jonathan Taylor will be hoping for a bounce-back season after falling below expectations in 2022. Jeffrey Brown/Icon Sportswire
          • Stephen Holder, ESPNMay 11, 2023, 08:46 PM ET
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              Stephen joined ESPN in 2022, covering the Indianapolis Colts and NFL at large. Stephen finished first place in column writing in the 2015 Indiana Associated Press Media Editors competition, and he is a previous top-10 winner in explanatory journalism in the Associated Press Sports Editors national contest. He has chronicled the NFL since 2005, covering the Tampa Bay Buccaneers from 2005-2013 and the Colts since 2013. He has previously worked for the Miami Herald, Tampa Bay Times, Indianapolis Star and The Athletic.

          INDIANAPOLIS – The Indianapolis Colts' 2023 schedule was released along with the rest of the NFL slate on Thursday.

          A scheduling quirk will have the Colts playing nine games at Lucas Oil Stadium in 2023 but just seven games at their opponents' home stadiums.

          The nine-game home slate is courtesy of the NFL’s unbalanced 17-game schedule, while one of their eight road games will technically be played at a neutral site –- against the New England Patriots in Frankfurt, Germany, in Week 10.

          Thursday's schedule release filled in the rest of the blanks for Indianapolis, a slate that features four division matchups within the Colts' first six games.

          Here's what's in store for the Colts:

          Schedule

          Sept. 10: vs. Jacksonville

          Sept. 17: at Houston

          Sept. 24: at Baltimore

          Oct. 1: vs. L.A. Rams

          Oct. 8: vs. Tennessee

          Oct. 15: at Jacksonville

          Oct. 22: vs. Cleveland

          Oct. 29: vs. New Orleans

          Nov. 5: at Carolina

          Nov. 12: at New England (Frankfurt, Germany)

          Nov. 19: BYE

          Nov. 26: vs. Tampa Bay

          Dec. 3: at Tennessee

          Dec. 10: at Cincinnati

          Dec. 16 or 17: vs. Pittsburgh

          Dec. 24: Atlanta

          Dec. 31: vs. Las Vegas

          Jan. 6 or 7: vs. Houston

          Strength of schedule: .435 (29th-toughest)

          Over/under: 6.5

          Biggest takeaway

          The Colts are hardly the favorite to win the AFC South this season, but they will get an early sense of their standing in their division when they play the Jacksonville Jaguars (twice), Houston Texans and Tennessee Titans within the first six weeks of the season. The Colts have not won a season opener since 2013, so the Week 1 matchup with Jacksonville will be one of great significance. Of note are the two games against the Titans, on Oct. 9 and Dec. 3, seeing how the Titans swept Indianapolis last season.

          Revenge game

          The Colts-Patriots rivalry isn't what it used to be given the state of the respective teams. Neither club made the playoffs in 2022. But the Patriots dealt the Colts one of their worst losses in recent memory, recording a 26-3 blowout in Week 9 last season. The Colts turned in one of the worst third-down performances in NFL history in the game, going 0-for-14. That marked the second-worst third-down effort in the past 30 years. The Colts' 121 yards of total offense was their lowest output since September 14, 1997. Ultimately, the game was the final straw for former coach Frank Reich, who was fired the following day.

          Bold prediction

          Expectations are low, but don't be surprised if the Colts manage to get to .500 at their bye week given the teams on the early part of their schedule. The familiarity with their division foes will certainly level the playing field in those matchups. Then, there's the possibility that the presence of rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson gives the Colts some offensive advantages in that teams have not yet seen the design of their offensive attack. The Colts are hoping to hold those details close to the vest and, when the time comes, deploy an offensive plan that fully utilizes Richardson's dual-threat ability. Teams will eventually adjust, but the Colts think they might have an upper hand early on.