As soon as we saw the seedings for this year’s NCAA tournament, we here at Giant Killer Central were considerably more excited about Giant vs. Killer matchups that might emerge in the round of 32 than upset possibilities in the first two days of play. And here’s a Sunday underdog you can get behind: Our statistical model says Wichita State has a 37.6 percent chance to knock off Kansas -- and there’s good reason to think those odds are understated.
For starters, this is not your typical 2 vs. 7 matchup. Kansas, ranking 14th in our basic power ratings, is slightly over-seeded. And Wichita State, which year after year is underappreciated by the NCAA selection committee, is terribly under-seeded, ranking 19th. We estimate there’s a difference of only 3.3 points per 100 possessions in these teams’ fundamental strengths, less than half the average gap between 2- and 7-seeds since 2007.
Further, Wichita State has vaulted into national powerhouse status under Gregg Marshall by excelling in areas that give underdogs extra punch in tournament play. The Shockers are not classic sharpshooters; instead, they represent a clan we call “Slow Killers.” These teams keep the pace slow, grind down their opponents’ shooting, and grab offensive rebounds -- all characteristics of the 2013 Wichita State squad that slayed two Giants on the way to the Final Four. This year’s edition is just as effective, limiting opponents to shooting just 42.2 percent from inside (ranking 12th), but is getting the job done with a much shorter lineup that includes guards who handle the ball exceptionally well. So in addition to their Slow Killer basics, Wichita State also forces bunches of turnovers (21.5 percent of opponent possessions, ranking 36th) and is above average at shooting 3s (35.5 percent, ranking 115th).
Meanwhile, Kansas, while strong as usual on the offensive boards, is atypically weak on the defensive glass (ranking 222nd). Our model doesn’t see that as a weakness per se, but it’s a sign that the Jayhawks have a “peanut allergy” -- yes, we are pulling out all the terminology here -- which is what we call a problem that plays into the hands of a Killer, because the Shockers are very good at turning missed shots into offensive rebounds (34.9 percent, ranking 51st). Even worse for the Jayhawks, they force very few turnovers (17.5 percent of opponent possessions, ranking 271st), while Wichita State is sixth-best in the country at avoiding them (just 15.1 percent of possessions). It’s easy to see a scenario where the Shockers pile up possessions against the Jayhawks.
Kansas is a member of the family we call Power Giants, defined by their offensive rebounding. And since 2007, these teams have 21.4 percent of their tournament games against Slow Killers, while falling just 9.3 percent the time to all other Killers. In the handful of matchups where Power Giants and Slow Killers had seeds similar to Kansas and Wichita State, underdogs have gone 2-2. Probably the best historical comparison is very familiar to Shockers fans: Wichita State over 1-seed Gonzaga in 2013.
Which leads to one more point in Wichita State’s favor. In that huge victory over the Zags, the Shockers took two-thirds of their shots from behind the 3-point arc, and they gave extra minutes to a freshman ball thief named Fred VanVleet. In other words, they took extra risks to gain extra rewards, becoming one of just a handful of teams we call “chameleons,” who tend to play more like Killers precisely when they need to. So it’s also easy to see Wichita State turning their extra possessions into 3-pointers.
Wichita State hasn’t actually spent much time as a Giant Killer in the past few years -- the team grew up fast. But the Shockers did so by emphasizing Killer traits. And now that they’re back in the role of David, you can expect them to sling a full assortment of effective tactics at their imperious Goliath of a foe.