The game many in the Sunflower State have long been waiting for is finally here: Kansas is about to face Wichita State. Though Lawrence and Wichita are just 163 miles apart, this will mark the first meeting between the two teams in 22 years.
It took a while to arrange, but the stakes of this Kansas state championship game (sorry, Kansas State) couldn't be bigger. The survivor here will play the winner of Butler-Notre Dame for what the entire hoops world expects will be a shot at Kentucky in the Elite Eight.
In my estimation the Shockers were rather badly under-seeded on the 7-line, and no less an expert than Bill Self endorses that view wholeheartedly. "You can't tell me there are 24 teams in the country better than [Wichita State]," the coach has said. "From that standpoint we know it'll be extremely difficult."
Apparently many laptops and human observers agree with Self and yours truly. KU's collision with Gregg Marshall's team is being rated as something close to a toss-up, and indeed this might be the 2015 tournament's best example of a game that's occurring one round too early. Both the Jayhawks and the Shockers have the look of second-weekend teams.
Early or not, I love that the NCAA tournament creates matchups like this. Here's my rundown of the key factors in Wichita State-Kansas, and why Wichita State can pull the upset.
Kansas picked a good time to start scoring again ...
At the risk of reading too much into one game against New Mexico State, Self's offense looked much better in the round of 64 than it did late in the season and in the Big 12 tournament. KU rang up 1.23 points per possession against NMSU thanks primarily to a superb 17-point performance from Frank Mason.
With Mason, Wayne Selden and Kelly Oubre, Self has the luxury of putting no fewer than three potentially game-changing scorers on the floor. Oubre's been relatively quiet the past three games, but before that he demonstrated that he can be every bit the dangerous dual-threat wing everyone expected him to be when he arrived in Lawrence in the fall. And Selden's perimeter accuracy just keeps getting better the more games he plays -- against the Big 12 the sophomore connected on 39 percent of his 3s. Self is certainly not lacking for options on offense.
... especially since Perry Ellis is still rounding into form
Since returning from a sprained knee that sidelined him for two games, Ellis has shot just 10-of-31 from the floor while attempting a mere four free throws over the course of 130 personal offensive possessions. That's a far cry from what we're used to seeing from KU's junior, who for much of his career has been one of the nation's most effective (if underrated) interior scorers.
Against the Aggies, Ellis appeared to be moving just fine but for whatever reason the bottom-line results still aren't materializing for him. True, that didn't matter against New Mexico State. It could matter a good deal more against Wichita State, however.
Fred VanVleet looks like the guy who made everyone's preseason All-America teams
Go ahead, point out (correctly) that Indiana isn't the strongest defense around. Hey, none of VanVleet's teammates were doing much against that unimpressive D. But Marshall's junior tore through it to the tune of 27 points on 18 shots.
VanVleet did start slowly in 2014-15, but in Valley play he arguably functioned at the (exceptionally high) level that was predicted for him coming into his junior season. Wichita State beat out Northern Iowa for the title of No. 1 offense in the Missouri Valley this season in large part because VanVleet is so lethal with the ball in his hands. Few if any point guards nationally can match his performance across the board: assists, accuracy from the field, ability to draw fouls, reliability at the line, near-total lack of turnovers -- VanVleet's got you covered in all of the above.
Don't forget the forgotten Shockers
You know about VanVleet, and Ron Baker quite rightly draws his fair share of adulation as well. But if all Marshall had were an outstanding point guard and a fantastic wing, this team wouldn't be here.
Not counting the few fleeting glimpses you'll get of Rauno Nurger or Bush Wamukota, Wichita State effectively plays a rotation comprised entirely of players 6-foot-7 or shorter; yet all year long, the Shockers have been able to force misses in the paint. Give a generous portion of the credit there to senior Darius Carter and a little bit to freshman reserve Shaquille Morris as well.
With a relatively undersized team that nevertheless plays good interior D, Marshall is able to have his hoops cake and eat it too. When Evan Wessel's on the floor as the 4, the Shockers can space the floor with four 3-point threats and play a brand of offense that reduces turnovers to near zero.
WSU is catching KU at a very unusual rebounding moment
I've been writing about Self's Kansas teams for a few years, and one thing I've never had to do before is even consider the subject of the Jayhawks' defensive rebounding. It's pretty much always been excellent, so I've talked about anything or everything KU-related besides defensive boards.
But this year is different. In Big 12 play, Kansas actually finished below the league average for defensive rebound percentage, pulling down a relatively unimpressive 66 percent of opponents' misses. And since Marshall's one of the few Valley coaches who's not afraid to try for offensive boards, the Jayhawks' mediocrity in this department could come into play against the Shockers.
What is it with 3s and Wichita State in the postseason?
If there's one constant in recent Wichita State NCAA tournament games, it's that one of the teams involved is most certainly going to make a high number of 3s. In the 2013 round of 32, for example, the No. 9 seed Shockers upset top-seeded Gonzaga by draining 14 shots from beyond the arc. Last season that shoe was on the other foot, however, as No. 8 seed Kentucky upset top-seeded WSU in the round of 32 thanks in part to 44 percent 3-point shooting.
Who will make the 3s this time around? Likely not Kansas. Self's aversion to the 3-point shot is relative and not absolute (he's no Roy Williams or Larry Brown), but it is also well-documented and above all consistent. Game after game (and especially season after season), 30 percent of KU's shot attempts will be 3s. No less, and definitely no more.
And even if the Jayhawks did somehow get it into their heads to go crazy from the perimeter, Wichita State would be unlikely to allow it. All season long the Shockers have done an excellent job chasing opponents off the 3-point line. Or rather Marshall's team used to do an excellent job -- until Indiana rang up 11 made 3s against this defense. (Again, something about Wichita State and the tournament. There will be 3s.) I expect the Wichita staff to address this lapse going forward, however long "forward" turns out to be.
On the other hand, WSU devoted 35 percent of its shots to tries from beyond the arc in Missouri Valley play. A productive day of outside shooting from VanVleet, Baker, Wessel, Tekele Cotton or some combination thereof would give the Shockers a lift against a Kansas team that, as always, plays very good interior defense.
My pick: Wichita State
I have to state for the record that I'm picking the Shockers because, well, I already did pick them in my bracket. (But don't worry, KU fans. Ask me about my thoughts on the impressive Sweet 16 runs by Baylor and SMU that my bracket also predicted.) This game basically lines up as a coin-flip, but I like Wichita State's three-part harmony: (1) VanVleet; (2) defense; and (3) a Wisconsin-brand lack of turnovers.
We'll see whether I'm right, but either way I hope the winner gets a parade from downtown to the Plaza in Kansas City. And let's not wait 22 years to do this again.