With conference tournaments getting underway, we have a very specific focus here at GK Central: We’re rooting for the teams that can go on to inflict maximum damage as Giant Killers in NCAA brackets later this month. So here’s a rundown of the mid-majors with the best Cinderella candidates, in order of their upset potential.
We have included three conferences that will probably send Giants to the Big Dance, but where Killers could still force their way into the field with conference-tournament runs. We’ll get to deeper underdogs (who could turn into surprisingly strong 15- and 16-seeds) on Friday. And we will cover conferences that could send both Giants and Killers (such as the American Athletic Conference and Atlantic 10) as their tournaments evolve. For the moment, if you like upsets, get to know these teams -- and get behind them as autobids.
Southland Conference
Best Killer: Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks (Giant Killer rating: 31.7, on a scale of zero to 100)
Key stats: Forcing turnovers on 24.9 percent of opponent possessions (ranking seventh in the NCAA); offensive rebounds on 37.7 percent of missed shots (ranking 13th); effective field goal percentage of 56 percent (ranking 10th)
Our take: We’ll keep this brief, because we have already made the case for Stephen F. Austin here. The Lumberjacks have played better than last season, and against a tougher schedule, to the point where they would be a legitimate at-large NCAA tournament team. And their basic strength is amped substantially (7.7 points per 100 possessions) by their outstanding Killer characteristics, including improved 3-point shooting. Matchups always matter, but SFA has a chance to be the next VCU.
West Coast Conference (Likely Giant: Gonzaga)
Best Killer: BYU Cougars (28.1)
Key stat: 19.7 points per 100 possessions better than average in our basic power ratings, ranking 24th in the nation
Our take: Until last Saturday, BYU’s record, which lacked quality wins, was out of whack with its underlying statistics, which were excellent. Had the Cougars lost to Gonzaga, their NCAA tournament case would have been mathematically interesting but probably doomed, consisting entirely of close losses to good teams. Instead BYU pulled off an early giant killing, and now the cat’s out of the bag. This is an extremely efficient team (117.5 points per 100 possessions after adjusting for opponents, ranking eighth) that can shoot from anywhere and work the boards at both ends.
Mid-American Conference
Best Killer: Central Michigan Chippewas (25.5)
Key stat: Taking 3-point shots on 50.1 percent of attempts (ranking second)
Our take: Hold on to your hats -- The Chippewas have an outstanding passer in PG Chris Fowler (from here on out, we’ll call him “GameDay”). They’ve got a whole collection of forwards who excel at protecting the ball and launching deep shots. (By some measures, John Simons, who is hitting 47 percent of his 3s, is the most efficient offensive player in the entire country.) And Keno Davis is coaching like it’s Drake in 2008 all over again. Central Michigan has visible flaws, which include poor offensive rebounding, weak defense and a roster of nonconference opponents who sound like they’re stops on a 19th-century railroad (Central Pennsylvania, Concordia, Youngstown State). But the Chippewas are bombing away on more than half their attempts, and if they emerge from the MAC, our statistical model says they could make some Giant very nervous.
Ohio Valley Conference
Best Killer: Eastern Kentucky Colonels (22.4)
Key stats: Force turnovers on 27.4 percent of opponent possessions (ranking second); taking 3-point attempts on 47.1 percent of shots (ranking fifth); 53.3 percent effective field goal percentage (ranking 40th)
Our take: Take a close look at the numbers listed here for Eastern Kentucky, and then consider that they’re just a sampling of the extreme stats posted by one of the most distinctive and entertaining teams in the country. The Colonels harass opponents relentlessly and rank fifth in the nation in steal percentage and second in turnover percentage. (Credit assistant coach Rodney Crawford; he arrived three years ago and installed a man-to-man defense reminiscent of the schemes he played in under Bob Huggins at Cincinnati in the early 2000s.) On offense, they pass just as continuously, until shots open up from downtown, where the Colonels take bucketloads of attempts and hit on 34.2 percent, or under the basket, where they’re shooting 55 percent (ranking 11th). The trade-offs are obvious -- on many possessions, Eastern Kentucky doesn’t even contest rebounds -- but the Colonels also boost the traits Killers need to succeed. Our model estimates Eastern Kentucky would gain a whopping 14.5 points per 100 possessions in a Giant Killer matchup from its style of play.
So catch the outside-inside game of seniors Corey Walden (steals on 5.3 percent of opponent possessions, ranking third in the country) and Eric Stutz (63.5 percent effective field goal percentage, ranking 20th) while you still can. As the No. 2 team in the OVC, Eastern Kentucky will be seeded into the conference semifinals and will probably have to beat Murray State to make it into the NCAA tournament -- just as the Colonels did last season.
Mountain West Conference (Likely Giant: San Diego State)
Best Killer: Boise State Broncos (17.7)
Key stats: Taking 3-point shots on 40.3 percent of attempts (ranking 45th); hitting on 39.7 percent of those attempts (ranking 17th).
Our take: On Jan. 13, coming off four straight narrow losses -- the kind of games that wrecked Boise State’s hopes for a postseason appearance last year -- the Broncos were down by two with 16 seconds left against UNLV. Then Derrick Marks hit a turnaround jumper to force overtime and Boise State ground out a win, and the Broncos haven’t looked back: They’re 11-1 since that game, including two big wins over San Diego State. Our model has admired the slow, efficient perimeter games of Leon Rice’s teams for a while, and this time around, Boise State may not even have to win its conference to secure an NCAA bid.
Missouri Valley Conference (Likely Giants: Wichita State, Northern Iowa)
Best Killer: Illinois State Redbirds (16.2)
Key stat: Offensive rebounds on 37.8 percent of missed shots, ranking 11th in the NCAA
Our take: They work the glass -- big man Reggie Lynch is 17th in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage -- and they force turnovers, which can keep games close against superior opponents. Moreover, their backcourt (Paris Lee, Daishon Knight, Bobby Hunter) has the accuracy to shoot more 3s. But the Redbirds are the third-best team in a two-bid conference, and to make the Big Dance, they will have to beat both Wichita State and Northern Iowa in the MVC junior prom. Their road starts Friday against Evansville.
Conference USA
Best Killer: Old Dominion Monarchs (16.1)
Key stats: 60.4 possessions per game (ranking 336th); offensive rebounds on 36.1 percent of missed shots (ranking 30th)
Our take: ODU is an Archetypal Slow Killer, moving at the pace of plate tectonics, collecting offensive boards, limiting opponents’ shooting. When it all comes together, that combination can be very effective, as when the Monarchs held Louisiana Tech to just 3-of-26 on long-range shooting last month. But as a contender for an at-large bid, ODU is truly bubblicious (ranking 63rd in our basic power ratings). At the very least, the Monarchs need a strong showing in the C-USA tournament, which begins March 11.
Horizon League
Best Killer: Cleveland State Vikings (13.7)
Key stat: Steals on 11.7 percent of opponent possessions (ranking 33rd)
Our take: When we first computerized our model, Cleveland State was the very first Giant Killer it spotted, way back in 2009. And sometimes historical connections are more than sentimental: As we have written, “In the time-honored tradition of Cedric Jackson, Norris Cole and D'Aundray Brown, the Vikings pressure the ball on D.” They always force scads of turnovers while shooting well from downtown and keeping the tempo slow -- and that collection of traits always serves Killers well. After an up-and-down season, Cleveland State now has to win the Horizon tournament; it went 3-3 this season against its three most likely opponents, with its three losses coming by a total of five points.
Sun Belt Conference
Best Killer: Georgia State (11.7)
Key stat: Forcing turnovers on 22.8 percent of opponent possessions (ranking 20th)
Our take: Ron Hunter is no fan of advanced analytics, but he has a knack for developing smart guards, including Ryan Harrow, a refugee from Kentucky and North Carolina State; Kevin Ware, who transferred from Louisville after suffering a hideous leg fracture in the 2013 NCAA tournament; and his own son, R.J. Hunter. The undersized Panthers don’t win many rebounding battles, but they are efficient at both ends of the court because they protect the ball and generate so many turnovers. And while their long-range shooting has disappeared this season, they are very effective inside (shooting 54 percent on 2-point FGs), largely because Harrow is terrific at finishing pick-and-rolls. Keep an eye on this fun sleeper.
Colonial Athletic Association
Best Killer: Hofstra Pride (10.4)
Key stats: Taking 41.2 percent of shots as 3-pointers (ranking 36th); turnovers on 16 percent of own possessions (ranking 22nd)
Our take: The Pride didn’t do themselves any favors by dropping two of their last games to fall to 10-8 in the CAA. And what’s with their nonconference schedule? Stony Brook, cool. Wagner, OK. But Central Connecticut? Jacksonville? Nevertheless, this undersized squad runs, guns and protects the ball, generating a Killer rating more than twice as high as any team from the Colonial posted last year.