We’re going division by division in this blog space this summer leading up to the preseason and focusing on the fantasy stories to watch and which players could become more and less valuable before all-important drafts. Now let’s break down the AFC West.
NFC East | NFC North | NFC South | NFC West
AFC East | AFC North | AFC South
Big changes: Fantasy owners can claim they won’t miss the great Peyton Manning because our last looks at him, statistically at least, weren’t strong, but this guy had been a fantasy monster since 1998. He will be missed. Mark Sanchez will not be a fantasy monster. It hasn’t been a great offseason for the Denver Broncos, but hey, they won the prize in February. The other teams didn’t do a whole lot to entice fantasy owners, either, though Kansas City Chiefs running back Jamaal Charles returns from another knee injury, Broncos runner C.J. Anderson returned from an interesting contract situation and the Oakland Raiders … they’re just lurking.
Big motivation: I can’t type “Mark Sanchez” in this spot with a straight face. Paxton Lynch probably starts right away, but we can’t generally count on rookies. Some really believe Northwestern product Trevor Siemian wins the job. Let’s look at the Raiders, because they brought in competition at running back for Latavius Murray in rookie DeAndre Washington, and while it might not matter at quarterback, they traded up to select Michigan State’s Connor Cook, despite the Derek Carr breakout. Carr is safe. We think. Murray might not be, at the least on third downs. Sure, Washington was only a fifth-round pick, but he’s a noted pass-catcher. Murray barely reached 1,000 rushing yards in 16 games and rushed for more than 100 yards in a game only twice. He was held below 50 rushing yards in seven contests and wore down as the season went on. Murray has earned RB2 status, but barely. The fact is the Raiders last won more than half their games in 2002, and expectations are becoming high. The team always seems to be on the verge of leaving Oakland. Carr, Murray and star wide receiver Amari Cooper, who was solid but not extraordinary as a rookie, have some pressure on them.
Potential stock fluctuation: The division running backs get the nod here, because in addition to Murray, mitigating factors affect the other starters. Take Anderson, for example. In fact, it seemed like the Broncos didn’t really want to take Anderson back. It ultimately happened and he got his money, but it’s difficult to trust him as a top-10 fantasy running back with his inconsistencies. Plus, the team brought back Ronnie Hillman, drafted Devontae Booker from Utah, and the quarterback situation doesn’t appear ideal. In Kansas City, rumors of Charles seeing a lessened role, after backups Charcandrick West and Spencer Ware emerged as reasonable performers, run rampant. Could Charles, at age 29 and after a second torn ACL, be scaled back for specialty work? Some won’t look his way until the third round. The final starting running back could be sophomore Melvin Gordon, who remains tied with 99.9 percent of the country in terms of NFL touchdowns, and pass-catcher Danny Woodhead, who had a career year at 31, though nearly 70 percent of his yards from scrimmage came through the air. It all counts. Woodhead finished as the division’s top running back in standard scoring for 2015. Ask 100 people on the street, and most wouldn’t guess that. Ask the same 100 who leads this year and you’d get votes for Murray, Anderson and Charles. That’s pretty interesting. Summer battles might add clarity.
Division report
Fantasy MVP: Nothing against Demaryius Thomas, Keenan Allen, Jeremy Maclin or Cooper, but it’s likely a running back. I ranked Charles over Anderson, so that’s the pick. And I bet Antonio Gates ends up a top-10 tight end yet again, despite so many doubting him due to age.
Fantasy LVP: Whichever running back chosen in the second or third round fails. I have to lean toward Anderson here. It can’t be Gordon. Most have given up on him. Mistake!
Relevant options to lose starting job: I wouldn’t call Denver’s quarterback battle relevant, though Thomas owners are probably a bit concerned. Don’t be. He's not viewed as a top-10 WR anyway. I suppose if Gates falters we’d see rookie Hunter Henry, but most rookies aren’t ready for the NFL. I don’t really think Murray, Charles or Anderson will lose the job.
Top fantasy rookie: Booker and Washington fight it out. There's too much quarterback depth to take a chance on Lynch, and I like Gates, so I won’t invest in Henry unless it’s a dynasty format. And don’t forget about Broncos tight end Jeff Heuerman; he tore an ACL last year but is ready to play and could matter in deep formats.
Intriguing rookie way off the radar: The other wide receiver opposite Maclin in Kansas City could change, since Albert Wilson, Rod Streater and Chris Conley aren’t exactly Pro Bowlers. Then again, Demarcus Robinson and Tyreek Hill come with baggage.
Sophomore to watch: Cooper should get even better, but it’s Gordon. He’s better than he showed.
They’ll play 16 games: No worries on Carr, Alex Smith and Philip Rivers. Lynch in Denver? I could see it. And yes on Gates and Keenan Allen.
They’ll not play 16 games: Hate to be pessimistic, but none of the starting running backs.
Division champ: I’m going with the Chiefs.