We’re going division by division in this blog space this summer leading up to the preseason and focusing on the fantasy stories to watch and which players could become more and less valuable before all-important drafts. We’ve covered the NFC East and NFC North and continue with the NFC South.
Big changes: Well, at least compared to other divisions, there weren’t a whole lot of changes, either in the draft or free agency. Sure, the Carolina Panthers made the Super Bowl and didn’t need to turn the roster over, but who did they add, especially for fantasy purposes? The Tampa Bay Buccaneers drafted … a kicker. Hurray! The New Orleans Saints needed defensive help and spent their money on a tight end (Coby Fleener). The Atlanta Falcons were quiet, too. So basically the NFC South looks quite a bit like it did last season, sans coach Lovie Smith in Tampa. (He’s now coaching at Illinois, by the way.) Tampa’s coaching change, the drafting of kicker Roberto Aguayo and I guess the free agent acquisitions of Fleener by the Saints and Mohamed Sanu by the Falcons qualify as “big changes” here, but not so big in the big picture.
Big motivation: The Panthers were the lone division team to win more than they lost in 2015, but through several defections on the defensive side and some natural regression by the Cam Newton-led offense, which scored a ridiculous 500 points, perhaps parity will reign a bit more in 2016. Or perhaps not. Surely Newton has to be motivated after a Super Bowl embarrassment, and despite his rise to top fantasy quarterback, some have to wonder if he can recreate the magic. Newton could always aid fantasy owners with his legs, and somewhat with his arm, but getting another 3,800 passing yards with 35 touchdowns plus 10 rushing scores sure is asking a lot. Wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin, he of the 1,008 receiving yards and nine scores as a rookie, returns from shredding his knee, and veteran Jonathan Stewart will make another run for 16 games and 1,000 rushing yards. Expectations in the form of preseason rankings could be a bit generous for each. Still, there’s a lot to like in Carolina yet again, and their players should be motivated.
Potential stock fluctuation: Buccaneers quarterback Jameis Winston topped 4,000 passing yards as a rookie, and Newton was the lone quarterback to eclipse his six rushing touchdowns, so many will expect the sophomore to reach another level in 2016. The truth is most fantasy-relevant Buccaneers could be held in higher regard than typical draft value, starting with Winston, who won’t be viewed as a top-10 option but as a backup with upside. I might not agree with a case for Newton-like numbers, but it’s not a foolish statement. Winston has an excellent running back in Doug Martin – No. 3 running back in standard scoring, but not being drafted close to that -- and veteran wide receiver Vincent Jackson gives it one more try in conjunction with fantastic third-year option Mike Evans. There’s even an intriguing tight end in Austin Seferian-Jenkins, who could warrant attention even in 10-team formats. Check out the glowing prose from new coach Dirk Koetter this summer. It could overrate several Buccaneers … or he might be correct.
Division report
Fantasy MVP: Newton should again score the most points, but anyone can and should draft a QB late; Drew Brees five rounds later is a steal. I’ll go with Evans over Brandin Cooks as my NFC South fantasy MVP. Those wideouts won’t be Atlanta’s Julio Jones, but they don’t cost a top-five pick, either.
Fantasy LVP: Sorry, but those who select Newton in the first round or two will be missing out on other valuable options. I’ll say Fleener is no lock for top-10 tight end status, despite glowing expectations, but he will be drafted like he is.
Relevant options to lose starting job: The case could be made, in theory, that each of the four starting running backs aren’t safe. Martin wasn’t good nor healthy in 2013 or 2014. Now he’s a building block? Mark Ingram has had similar issues with consistency and also has intriguing backups. Devonta Freeman is being pushed by Tevin Coleman, the team’s actual choice to start last September coming off the preseason. Didn’t go down that way. Stewart is 29 and brittle, and he’d be my first pick to lose the job (to Cameron Artis-Payne). The quarterbacks and top wide receivers are safer, except for Willie Snead in New Orleans because …
Top fantasy rookie: ... Ohio State product Michael Thomas is simply better. And the division doesn’t have other rookies likely to contribute, unless one counts Bucs kicker Aguayo. You must wait until the last round for kickers, but if you want to make Aguayo one of them, fine.
Intriguing rookie way off the radar: It’s possible new Falcons tight end Jacob Tamme is competent, but rookie Austin Hooper is big and fast and likely the future.
Sophomore to watch: Other than Winston, it’s all about the Benjamin -- the Carolina one. The knee was torn in August, so he should be ready in plenty of time. His teammate Artis-Payne also should matter and is a wise Stewart handcuff.
They’ll play 16 games: The quarterbacks seem like safe bets. So does Greg Olsen. And here’s a surprise: V-Jax. Forget 2015; Jackson's knee is healed, and this is a veteran capable of top-20 wide receiver production, though he won’t get quite there. Still, he might go undrafted in many leagues. Solid late-rounder.
They’ll not play 16 games: None of the starting running backs make it. Controversy! I would go Charles Sims over Coleman, Artis-Payne and Tim Hightower/C.J. Spiller, though, especially in a PPR format.
Division champ: Carolina, but I do like the Bucs to make it interesting.