We’re going division by division in this blog space this summer leading up to the preseason and focusing on the fantasy stories to watch and which players could become more and less valuable before all-important drafts. We start with the NFC East.
Big changes: Half the teams have introduced first-time coaches, so that’s kind of interesting. What’s plainly obvious about the NFC East is the wild infusion of young talent from the draft, notably on the offensive side. The Dallas Cowboys took Ezekiel Elliott fourth overall and he’s the lone running back in the division ranked among our fantasy top 20. The Philadelphia Eagles got their quarterback of the future in Carson Wentz, though it’s problematic whether we see him perform this season. The New York Giants and defending division champs Washington Redskins added exciting wide receivers in Sterling Shepard and Josh Doctson, and each figures to have some degree of immediate impact. The other major NFC East moves took place on the defensive side, but it’s tough to rely on any of the D/ST units for fantasy while these teams are piling up points on each other. So watch the first-year players make news in what appears to be a division with parity. Elliott is a likely first-rounder for fantasy, but one of the others going considerably later could make all the difference.
Big motivation: Another common theme for the NFC East is the potential state of mind and future for the quarterbacks, each of whom probably feels like they’re not getting a fair shake from media and fans. Take Kirk Cousins, for example. Robert Griffin III was jettisoned but Cousins doesn’t have a long-term deal, probably because the organization would like to see him perform like a star for another season, just in case. Fantasy owners might be buying in here. There’s an apparent divide in the industry whether Cousins is worthy of starting for those in 12-team leagues. Tony Romo of the Cowboys broke his clavicle more than once last season and isn’t a young man in football terms, and Dallas drafted a quarterback just in case the Romo era is waning. But isn’t Romo always statistically underrated?
In Philly, we saw how pleased Sam Bradford was with the multiple draft pick trades and eventual selection of Wentz, who might be better than him right now. Don’t be surprised. Bradford is pretty average at best, and not the most durable fellow around, plus he knows he’s playing this year for a contract somewhere else next. And then there’s Eli Manning, always overlooked despite the Super Bowl rings. The Giants have suffered through three consecutive losing seasons, but Manning, at least statistically, hasn’t been the problem. The case can be made for Manning, Romo and Cousins as top-10 fantasy passers, or maybe none of them make it. I’ve got them ninth, 12th and 13th, respectively. These aren’t the only motivated fellows in the division, of course, but it’s an interesting crew.
Potential stock fluctuation: And now we look at the wide receivers, from a general sense. Odell Beckham Jr. and Dez Bryant are great, no question, but keep an eye on the Philadelphia and Washington receivers in your fantasy drafts. Jordan Matthews could move outside from the slot, but regardless, he just missed a 1,000-yard season. Perhaps it’s the concern about his quarterback play holding his value back. He could be a top-20 WR on draft day, or land outside the top 30. Same with former Eagle DeSean Jackson, always trying to make a point. Like his quarterback, this could be the final year for him in D.C., so one would think he’s plenty motivated to prove a point, and while he’s more likely outside the top-30 WRs than in the top 20, he’s had good seasons in the past. He’s not too old. Ultimately, I view Washington running back Matt Jones as the non-rookie most likely to see his value change as the summer moves on. Nobody seems to want to talk about this organization’s running attack, but someone’s gotta do it. Cousins doesn’t throw 45 times per game. Jones wasn’t great as a rookie but it’s his job, at least on first and second down, and I suspect his current ADP will rise to safe RB3 status by August.
Division report
Fantasy MVP: Beckham Jr. over Elliott
Fantasy LVP: Based on value and expectations, Ryan Mathews. Sorry, a lot of factors working against him.
Relevant options to lose starting job: Bradford, for sure. And Rashad Jennings. Watch out for rookie Paul Perkins.
Top fantasy rookie: Elliott, of course.
Intriguing rookie way off the radar: Perkins and Philly’s Wendell Smallwood.
Sophomore to watch: Matt Jones. Also, Nelson Agholor, to a degree.
They’ll play 16 games: The three good starting QBs and Elliott.
They’ll not play 16: DeSean Jackson, Mathews, Bradford and, unfortunately, Washington's star tight end Jordan Reed.
Division champ: Dallas Cowboys.