We’re going division by division in this blog space this summer leading up to the preseason focusing on the fantasy stories to watch and which players could become more and less valuable before all-important drafts. Today, I break down the AFC East.
NFC East | NFC North | NFC South | NFC West
Big changes: Forget the new coach, free-agent signings, hotshot rookies from the draft and everything else, the big change is, of course, the fact that New England Patriots backup quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo is expected to start the first four games. What, you didn’t hear? Yeah, apparently the starting quarterback, some guy nobody has heard of, did something bad several years ago and lawyers got involved and … well, I’m kind of tired of it, but it sure does affect how we all draft Tom Brady. The Patriots did some nice offseason work personnel-wise, which never gets old, including swiping a decent wide receiver from a division rival. Brady isn’t the lone division quarterback currently on pace to miss September, either -- interesting offseason for those New York Jets, and as of this writing, it clearly doesn’t appear to be over.
Big motivation: I’m guessing Brady and his pals will be a bit excited to get the full crew together again in Week 5, but the Jets and Buffalo Bills also feature fantasy-relevant players with proverbial chips on their shoulders. For New York, the current quarterbacks on the roster are Geno Smith, Bryce Petty and rookie Christian Hackenberg. Perhaps veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick, the first in franchise history to surpass 30 touchdown passes in a season, returns with a shiny new contract, but he and the organization can’t agree on a price, at least not as of mid-July. These things tend to change in August. Fitzpatrick ended up fantasy’s No. 12 quarterback in 2015 and certainly relevant, and good luck finding someone who believes Smith or Hackenberg can match that, though Smith should be motivated. Free-agent acquisition Matt Forte should be as well, as he and the Chicago Bears parted ways, as the running back approaches his 30th birthday. For Buffalo, led by coach Rex Ryan, who always has something to prove, there’s quarterback Tyrod Taylor proving he wasn’t a fluke, running back LeSean McCoy fighting back age and years of punishment and wide receiver Sammy Watkins, who hasn’t quite become one of the best in the league and comes off foot surgery.
Potential stock fluctuation: We turn to the Miami Dolphins, a franchise that made an interesting trade with Philly to acquire expensive defensive pieces, then spent its first-round pick in a somewhat controversial manner as well. Lamar Miller ran away to Houston, leaving sophomore Jay Ajayi to handle lead running back chores, though he has company. Ajayi was quiet as a rookie, but the opportunity is there, so one can, in theory, view him as a high-end RB2. Or they can presume a time-share with perhaps rookie Kenyan Drake or underwhelming vets Damien Williams and Daniel Thomas. Or Ryan Tannehill will throw the football 45 times per game to Jarvis Landry and DeVante Parker, among others. Parker is on many sleeper lists after a quiet first season during which the team was awfully cautious with him. New England’s newcomers also qualify here; wide receiver Chris Hogan, the former Bill, could start alongside Julian Edelman. Former Bears tight end Martellus Bennett can’t possibly get the targets he did in Chicago with Gronkowski around … right? Hogan could end up a top-30 wide receiver on draft day and Bennett top-10 at his spot. I’m more likely to rely on Hogan.
Division report
Fantasy MVP: Based on expected ADP, I think it’s Brady. From Week 5 on, he could be fantasy’s top QB. No, I’m not really kidding. I'd draft him in the top five at the position and wait. Watkins, Ajayi, Forte and even Gronk are also factors, with varying ADP.
Fantasy LVP: Hate to blame wide receiver production on the QB, but if the Jets go with Smith, it’s hard to go with Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker at their current value/ADP. McCoy also scares many based on potential second-round status and his disappointing 2015 campaign.
Relevant options to lose starting job: Well, if Garoppolo plays awesomely, who knows? OK, that’s not real. But other big names in the division aren’t as safe as most realize, including Buffalo’s Taylor and McCoy, Miami and New England running backs and whoever is named New York’s passer. Karlos Williams can be really good, so McCoy needs to stay healthy and perform well.
Top fantasy rookie: Cardale Jones in Buffalo? Not many rookies in this division for fantasy purposes. Miami drafted Alabama’s Drake and Rutgers wide receiver Leonte Carroo in Round 3, and there are certainly paths to relevance there.
Intriguing rookie way off the radar: I like Buffalo’s Taylor and think he’s for real, a potential top-10 guy. But Ohio State’s Jones is built like a linebacker and can throw and run, so we’ll see. I’m not as big a fan of Hackenberg, but the Penn State offense didn’t give him much of a chance the past two seasons.
Sophomore to watch: Ajayi and Parker in Miami could be significant fantasy assets. Remember: Tannehill was a top-10 QB for fantasy in 2014.
They’ll play 16 games: Only Tannehill among the current quarterbacks, unless Brady’s legal team performs magic. And yes to New York weapons Forte, Marshall and Decker. Oh, and Fitzpatrick. Where else is he gonna go?
They’ll not play 16 games: All the key Bills and Gronk. Hey, Gronk last played 16 games back in 2011. Not trying to be mean, but realistic. Now 15 games … I can buy that.
Division champ: Really? They clinch before Brady returns. Or by Thanksgiving. OK, Week 16.