We’re going division by division in this blog space this summer leading up to the preseason, focusing on the fantasy stories to watch and which players could become more and less valuable before all-important drafts. Now, let’s break down the AFC North.
NFC East | NFC North | NFC South | NFC West | AFC East
Big changes: There’s a new Cleveland Browns quarterback in town! The Johnny Manziel era seemed doomed from the start, and we do hope he gets his life back on track. Robert Griffin III used to be a fantastic quarterback -- well, for a year -- and he gets his second chance, though this doesn’t feel like a Browns team on its way to more wins than losses; last time it happened was 2007. The other teams should go back to their annual double-digit wins, presuming health. The Baltimore Ravens joined the Browns in non-contention mode in ’15, but injuries were to blame. Joe Flacco is back. So are several running backs and wide receivers, plus new, though overrated, weapons to watch. The Pittsburgh Steelers will look a bit different, with Heath Miller retiring and Martavis Bryant suspended, and for the Cincinnati Bengals, Ken Zampese replacing Hue Jackson as offensive coordinator shouldn’t change much. Three teams in this division are good, and the other, well, good luck RG III!
Big motivation: Flacco hadn’t missed an NFL game before tearing up his knee in Week 11, and while he’s not exactly the greatest fantasy option, he’s obviously a key to the offense. The Ravens love to run the football, and that’s where Justin Forsett, himself returning from a broken arm, enters. The journeyman Forsett emerged as a fantasy star in 2014 but wasn’t close to the same level in 2015 before his season was truncated. He’s got company now. Javorius Allen started the final month-plus and showed explosion and reliability as a pass-catcher. He could start. Rookie Kenneth Dixon from Louisiana Tech also should figure in. Each of the three running backs excels in the passing game -- I basically refuse to acknowledge Trent Richardson as potentially viable -- so it might not be a committee. Similar motivation exists for others in the passing game. Skilled Mike Wallace keeps needing to find new homes -- and I'm sure nobody could guess why -- but he could be a deep threat. I'll pass. Breshad Perriman missed his rookie year with knee woes, and they remain, so who knows his availability for September? Finally, there’s always-motivated Steve Smith Sr. No, he did not retire; not prematurely after a rough Achilles tear ended a terrific statistical year. No shortage of motivation here.
Potential stock fluctuation: Now we look toward the Steelers, because as of this writing, it’s hard to tell whether superstar running back Le'Veon Bell, with season-ending knee injuries each of the past two seasons, can return to a top performance level. We want to believe, and some will make him not only the first running back chosen in drafts, but perhaps first overall. Others will be cautious. The Steelers could ease his workload, because veteran DeAngelo Williams performed so well in his stead. Fantasy owners would be wise to handcuff Bell with Williams in drafts, but the round will depend on Bell’s health. There are no concerns with awesome wide receiver Antonio Brown. He’s my first overall selection, but there will be some investing heavily in Markus Wheaton with Bryant suspended for the year, and the new tight end is Ladarius Green, so intriguing and upside-laden. He’s likely to warrant top-10 tight end consideration in most leagues, but that could mean Round 5 or Round 10. I'd prefer safer options who don't see few targets, thanks to Brown.
Division report
Fantasy MVP: Brown and Bell stand out in the Steel City, even with first-round fantasy price tags.
Fantasy LVP: Can’t really pick a Brown, because no Brown is currently among the top 75 selections in ESPN average live drafts. Inconsistent Bengals running back Jeremy Hill makes sense if someone regards him as a second-rounder. There's upside, but he looks pretty average. And it’s tough to trust any Ravens wide receivers, so don’t invest heavily.
Relevant options to lose starting job: Three of the quarterbacks are about as safe as can be. Griffin, of course, has a bit of trouble staying on the field. Look at the running backs: Hill isn’t safe with Giovani Bernard lurking. Forsett clearly isn’t safe. And Bell has to stay healthy to be safe. And no Browns are safe, really, so be careful in looking early at rookie receiver Corey Coleman. The Browns did, after all, select five wide receivers in the draft!
Top fantasy rookie: Most would say Coleman, and it’s a reasonable pick. But Baltimore’s Dixon is also in a nice situation with opportunity looming. OK, I’ll say Coleman, but no AFC North rookie comes truly in demand for fantasy.
Intriguing rookie way off the radar: Can’t say I’ve seen much offseason love for Bengals wide receiver Tyler Boyd, but the Pitt star merely has to beat out overrated veteran Brandon LaFell for a starting job. Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu are gone. The problem then becomes getting proper targets. A.J. Green gets many, and there’s also Bernard and tight end Tyler Eifert.
Sophomore to watch: Baltimore would love 2015 first-rounder Perriman to contribute, but who knows? Tight end Maxx Williams was the first at his position chosen in the same draft, but the Benjamin Watson signing makes things tougher. Watch them and Allen. The Ravens do have youth.
They’ll play 16 games: Bold prediction that the only starting quarterbacks to do it will be Flacco and Andy Dalton. Ben Roethlisberger has been through a lot. We know Griffin’s deal. One of the top-10 Steelers makes it. And I’ll go out on a limb and proclaim Forsett does too.
They’ll not play 16 games: Sorry, Bell owners. I want to be optimistic, but it’s difficult. Also wouldn’t surprise me if Eifert, blessed with talent but on a slow recovery from ankle surgery, misses all of September. He’s not among my top-10 tight ends. In this division, the only tight end I really trust is Cleveland's Gary Barnidge. Yeah, Green, Eifert and Watson are all getting a bit too much love.
Division champ: Bengals feel like the team best set up to win 12 games.