We’re going division by division in this blog space this summer leading up to the preseason, focusing on the fantasy stories to watch and which players could become more and less valuable before all-important drafts. Now let’s break down the AFC South.
NFC East | NFC North | NFC South | NFC West | | AFC North
Big changes: Each of the four teams made impactful moves at running back, though fantasy owners likely won’t notice with the Indianapolis Colts. Veteran Frank Gore remains, but even if Robert Turbin and/or Jordan Todman matter, it’s the Andrew Luck party. The Jacksonville Jaguars brought in Chris Ivory to muddy their situation. The Tennessee Titans traded for 2014 rushing champ DeMarco Murray, though many question what he has left, and drafted a large fellow to compete. The Houston Texans spent major money on Lamar Miller. He’ll certainly matter. Miller will take handoffs from the lone new starting QB in the division.
Big motivation: Is Luck really one of the top three quarterbacks in the NFL? He showed the ability in 2014 when he tossed 40 touchdown passes, and he won 11 games in each of his first three NFL seasons, but last season the rickety Colts offensive line couldn’t keep him healthy and interceptions were again an issue. Luck also has more interceptions than touchdown passes in six career postseason games. A first-round choice in many fantasy leagues last year -- you really should never choose a QB that early, but that’s a different blog entry -- Luck wasn’t even close to top-10 QB status on a game-by-game basis. Yes, he will bounce back to a degree. He is the team's game plan and he’s got weapons, but be careful here in degree of expectation. As for new Titan Murray, he probably doesn’t have as much pressure on him as Luck does, but similarly we’ve seen two extremes in two seasons. Murray can’t be as bad as he showed in Philadelphia, and the Titans did improve their offensive line. But unlike Luck, if Murray struggles again, that might be it.
Potential stock fluctuation: Since Luck is the lone AFC South quarterback assured to be a fantasy starter in all formats, we look at running back where there has been more upheaval. Could Miller, Murray, Gore, Ivory or T.J. Yeldon end up as top-10 fantasy running backs? Of course, though Miller is the only one who will be drafted as such. Gore likely won’t receive much top-20 consideration, either, despite finishing as the No. 12 running back in standard scoring, so we peer into the middle, the RB2 range. Ivory versus Yeldon is interesting. Ivory is big, strong and looked more durable during his tenure with the New York Jets. Yeldon is young, but was unimpressive as a rookie, especially near the goal line. He scored a mere three touchdowns. One could make the case to choose either Jaguars running back in the top 20, in theory, or neither, and there’s another young/old situation in Tennessee. It’s tougher to make the case for Alabama rookie Derrick Henry over Murray, but the kid is a bruiser. He’s big. He’s strong. One would think the goal line work will be his. Watch what happens in training camp because it could clear up the situations in Jacksonville and Tennessee. There’s also likely to be fantasy debate about the division’s tight ends --Julius Thomas, Dwayne Allen, someone in Houston -- though only Delanie Walker will warrant top-10 status.
Division report
Fantasy MVP: There are a lot of young, exciting wide receivers to choose from with T.Y. Hilton, Allen Robinson, DeAndre Hopkins and Kendall Wright. But running back is not as strong, and Miller can be special in the former Arian Foster role.
Fantasy LVP: Hate to say Luck, but choosing a quarterback early is not wise strategy, and he’s likely to go early. Blake Bortles will go later, but the Jaguars seemed to really improve their leaky defense, which means the myriad trash-time numbers Bortles produced could be gone.
Relevant options to lose starting job: Gore stands out, though again, he was more productive than most realize. Perhaps the Colts didn’t even realize it. Murray could be an expensive backup in Tennessee. Also watch some of the No. 2 wide receiver battles. I like Allen Hurns, and he’s underrated, but Marqise Lee has game, too. Could Phillip Dorsett push Donte Moncrief in Indy? Houston has depth now as well.
Top fantasy rookie: Henry is the obvious choice, but Will Fuller and Braxton Miller -- the Ohio State QB turned wide receiver -- should see snaps in Houston. It’s just hard to figure a second receiver alongside Hopkins seeing relevant touches.
Intriguing rookie way off the radar: Lamar Miller is likely a three-down back, but keep an eye on smaller Tyler Ervin, a fourth-rounder from San Jose State. He catches passes and should return kicks, but if opportunity truly knocks, he’s explosive.
Sophomore to watch: Dorsett didn’t get a chance to play with Luck, but the skills are clear. The Jaguars told us how they felt about Yeldon by signing Ivory. And then there’s Marcus Mariota, flying way under the radar. He produced multiple 30-point fantasy games as a rookie to match Tom Brady. Mariota can run, too. I’m fine choosing him as a fantasy backup with upside.
They’ll play 16 games: All four quarterbacks make it, so that includes Luck. Gore makes it. The last time he missed a game was the Reagan administration. (OK, it was 2010.) And why not Ivory? I don’t really buy a loss of motivation after signing contracts.
They’ll not play 16 games: Tight ends Thomas and Allen. And I just don’t trust Murray after last season.
Division champ: For the third time in six seasons, it’s the … Texans. Yep, not the Colts.