Here’s a look at the Super Bowl prospects of the Denver Broncos, who finished the season 9-7:
Broncos' Super Bowl barometer: They should contend, but there are question marks.
Assessing the foundation: Start with John Elway, the Denver Broncos executive vice president of football operations and general manager. His expectation meter is set at "we want to compete for world championships; that's the standard." When Vance Joseph was introduced as the head coach, replacing Gary Kubiak, Elway said the Broncos should be back in the Super Bowl conversation next season and pointed out the team had won the title less than a year earlier.
The Broncos have a fairly young roster, have managed the cap well -- they could have around $40 million worth of room when free agency opens -- and know without a doubt their current core can win a championship because they did it last February. In the big picture, they've had six consecutive winning seasons. Despite this season's playoff miss, the Broncos finished 9-7 -- and were 7-3 at one point.
Because of the potential to have as many as four compensatory draft picks, including perhaps two third-rounders, the Broncos could also have a 10-player draft class. Nine rookies -- eight draft picks and one undrafted player -- made the roster out of training camp this past season. Anything close to a repeat and the Broncos suddenly have restocked the depth chart in a two-draft cycle.
Overall, Elway believes in the draft and supports the scouting staff. When they see the opportunity, the Broncos will dive into free agency to make the big splashes. Put it all together with a defense that includes three first-team All-Pro picks in cornerback Chris Harris Jr., cornerback Aqib Talib and linebacker Von Miller, and the Broncos are indeed in position to get back in the mix if they repair the offensive line.
Judging the quarterback: At the heart of the questions on offense are the players tasked with protecting the quarterback. The Broncos overhauled the offensive line in 2015, but the group never quite played the way the team hoped. The line did rally down the stretch and probably saved its best game for Super Bowl 50 win over the Carolina Panthers.
The Broncos revamped the line again in 2016, only to see the group struggle mightily. The Broncos finished 27th in rushing and surrendered 40 sacks -- ninth most in the league.
Before the Broncos can judge Trevor Siemian and Paxton Lynch at quarterback, they must give them a line that allows concentration on coverage rather than self-preservation.
Siemian, who started 14 games last season, and Lynch, the team's first-round pick in 2015, will battle for the starting job in 2017. Siemian won the job in last year's camp and it wasn't close. If the competition is fair, he will be difficult to unseat. Siemian throws with better anticipation and can handle as much information as the coaches give him.
Lynch has athleticism on his side and that first-round grade, but he has to learn to manage what he sees in front of him because it is far different than his college offense. Opposing defensive coordinators believe they can make Lynch hesitate on throws between the numbers because he's indecisive after his first read.
The Broncos believe both can be starters, and Elway has said -- for the moment -- he has no intention of bringing in a veteran to be the starter. You never say never with the Broncos on such matters, but Siemian just turned 25 and Lynch is set to enter his second offseason program. That means the Broncos are young at the position, have friendly cap numbers on both quarterbacks.
As the season drew to a close, Siemian had the support of his teammates, who often privately said he could have led the Broncos to the playoffs if the offensive line had performed a little better.
Realistic ways the Broncos can improve their chances to contend for a Super Bowl:
Free Von Miller. Miller didn't have a sack in the last four games. This was due to the number of blockers offenses were willing to put in front of Miller, coupled with the fact the Broncos were rarely in full-blown pass-rush situations since they rarely played with the lead. That attention from blockers isn't going anywhere, but the Broncos need others to make offenses pay for double- and triple-teaming Miller. That's at the top of linebacker Shane Ray's to-do list in the coming season.
Fix the line already. For two seasons, the Broncos have lamented the struggles of their offensive line. They've spent money in free agency and expended eight picks in the last six drafts on the position group. This year's playoff miss is squarely at the line's feet, with Siemian taking a beating. The Broncos have done well at every other spot on the depth chart causing some to wonder if they simply have a hole in how they evaluate linemen or need to change how they are coached. The Broncos need to be honest with themselves because if they don't fix the O-line, they'll miss the playoffs again.
Regain their edge. The 2015 Broncos were mentally tough. They won close games over and over again, and made their biggest plays in the tightest moments. The 2016 version often played like it planned to kick it in gear later, except later never came. The Chiefs trampled the Broncos' playoff hopes on Christmas night in Kansas City, a lackluster performance for Denver from top to bottom. Championships are a lifetime goal, but they can take focus away once they have been won. The Broncos need to find a way to get that fervor back.