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          Six Points: Harley Reid isn't living up to the hype; Cats fans, I'm sorry...

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          The Ben King stat you have to hear to believe (2:30)

          On the ESPN Footy Podcast, the team looks at Ben King's goalkicking form, but in the context of another stat, it's almost hard to believe. (2:30)

          • Jake MichaelsMay 27, 2025, 04:40 PM ET
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              Jake Michaels is a Melbourne-based sports writer who has been with ESPN since 2013. He primarily writes on the AFL, but his assignments have taken him all around the world, covering everything from Formula One to Grand Slam tennis, boxing to basketball, and the Olympic Games.
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          Each week of the 2025 AFL season, ESPN.com.au's Jake Michaels looks at six talking points.

          This week's Six Points features a long-overdue apology to Geelong and its fans, why I'm worried about Harley Reid, some Jordan Dawson love, and a mind-boggling Ben King statistic.

          1. An official apology to Geelong and its fans

          Not 24 hours after last year's Grand Final, my esteemed colleague Rohan Connolly and I shook hands on a friendly long-term wager. I had the Hawks finishing this season higher on the ladder than the Cats. He gladly took Geelong. All offseason I had been quietly confident I was in line for a tidy double up and I became convinced I was on the right side of the bet when Hawthorn began the year 4-0.

          Fast forward seven weeks, and while the two clubs are only split on the ladder by percentage, it's the Cats who have clearly emerged as the better, more consistent, and scarier side, proving I once again underestimated Chris Scott, the club's culture, senior leaders, and it's plethora of unheralded talent.

          Let me make something very clear to all of those who have at one point in time accused me of being a Geelong hater. The Cats aren't just a potential finalist or fringe contender in season 2025, they are as likely as any team to win the premiership. Period.

          FACT: Geelong, Gold Coast, and the Western Bulldogs are the only teams to boast five players inside the top 35 of Champion Data's 100x ratings.

          Champion Data certainly agrees. At the just-about halfway point of the year, Geelong is lighting up their patented premiership standards checklist, the 32 key areas a club must excel in if they are to taste flag success. The Cats rank in the top four in 13 categories, and in the bottom four in just three. Among the areas of dominance are scores per inside 50 (1st), points from stoppages (2nd), opposition scores per inside 50 (3rd), groundball differential (4th), pressure (4th), and total points for (4th).

          You just have to admire Geelong's ability to continually remain relevant and a destination club for players around the league. See, Cats fans, I am prepared to fall on my sword and admit fault ... sometimes.

          2. I'm not convinced Harley Reid will be the out and out star we all thought

          There haven't been many players enter the AFL in the last quarter century with more hype and expectation surrounding them than Harley Reid. In fact, I'm not sure there have been any?!

          Reid was touted as the can't miss, generational player that would soon be widely viewed as the best in the competition; a title he would likely hold for a decade, or more. Dustin Martin 2.0, if you will. Unfortunately for Eagles fans, Reid has been more Pat Lipinski than Dusty through his first year and a half. Think that's a stretch? Well, since the beginning of last year, both players have averaged an identical 17.8 disposals and 0.6 goals per game, Reid only edging the Magpie in the bird flipping stakes!

          Now, do I think Reid has 'bust' potential? Absolutely not. But is he still that no doubt, guaranteed future Hall of Famer we all convinced ourselves he would be? I'm not as sure as I was.

          I haven't been overly impressed with Reid's ball winning ability, nor have I been with his ball use or decision making. Speaking of which, did you know no player in recorded history has amassed more clangers than Reid through 31 games? He's also given away the most free kicks through 31 games and been dispossessed the equal-most (tied with Tim Kelly) in that time.

          There will be those who argue I'm being too harsh and that we need to afford Reid more time, but I tend to disagree. In this day and age we see players, particularly midfielders, enter the competition and hit the ground running. Look at Nick Daicos, Matt Rowell, Sam Walsh, Harry Sheezel, Caleb Serong ... the list goes on and on. Reid has plenty of catching up to do if he's to live up to the billing.

          3. Grow up, Bailey Smith

          Okay, now that I've given the Cats some long overdue flowers and talked up their premiership prospects, it's time to turn Grinch on the club ... specifically superstar recruit Bailey Smith.

          After last Thursday night's epic clash between Geelong and the Western Bulldogs, in which the Cats prevailed by 14 points, Smith made what many found to be a cheeky, humorous comment on his Instagram account.

          Go on, laugh it up. Claim it's just a joke. But I tell you what, this type of behaviour is not only sad and pathetic, it's simply inexcusable for a professional footballer, someone who is supposed to be a role model to thousands of young kids. And the fact Smith won't even be given a slap on the wrist by the league or club proves the sorry reality that illicit drug use has become so ingrained and prevalent in our society.

          To those that say "lighten up, this occurs every Saturday evening at nightclubs around the country," you've only proved my point. Bailey, this is not on. Grow up.

          4. The stats don't do Jordan Dawson's awesome season justice

          I'm not really supposed to have favourites or root for certain players, but I tell you what, I'd love to see Jordan Dawson win the 2025 Brownlow Medal. After Round 11, I have the Adelaide skipper leading our predictor by three votes from the aforementioned Smith, and I've got my fingers crossed his red-hot form carries into the second half of the year.

          Dawson has been the player of the season to date, but you likely wouldn't know it by glancing over the stat sheets. He 'only' averages 24 disposals and nine contested possessions per game and receives a fraction of the fanfare the AFL's other stars are showered with. Even Champion Data doesn't rate him as a true top tier footballer, Dawson currently the 90th best in the league in their 100X metric, 53rd for ball winning, and 62nd for ball use.

          But don't let that fool you. Dawson is every bit a star of the game. Not only is he one of the most impactful and decisive ball users in the league -- ranking 'elite' for kicks, effective kicks, marks, and shots at goal -- he has also grown into arguably the best two-way midfielder. This season, Dawson is the only player in the league to average at least six tackles and six inside 50s per game.

          5. Something quirky I noticed

          I've got two fixture quirks, one I'm sure you all noticed last week and another you may not have spotted ahead of Round 12.

          Aside from the COVID-impacted years, last Saturday was the first time in history Marvel Stadium hosted a double-header. At 12:35pm the Blues faced the Giants, before fans vacated and the venue set up for the Kangaroos' clash with the Magpies. Don't worry if you missed it, we'll be getting another dose in Round 17 when the Bombers and Suns act as a curtain raiser for the Saints and Hawks.

          Now to my second point. This week, we have no game in Melbourne on either Saturday or Sunday. In fact, we have just one game in Victoria for the entire round! Outside, Opening Round, Gather Round, finals, and the COVID years, this is the first time this has happened in recorded history!

          6. My favourite stat of the week

          It may seem utterly insane to suggest that a guy sitting second in the Coleman Medal standings needs to do more, but I'm going to walk down that path with Gold Coast spearhead Ben King.

          Sure, he's booted 31 goals, but he doesn't really do anything else. In fact, King has had 50 kicks this season and only three of them weren't shots at goal; meaning 94% of his kicks are aimed between the big sticks. That's an extraordinary, mind-boggling statistic for a modern day full forward! For context, the next highest percentage on record (having had at least 20 shots at goal) is Alastair Lynch at 84.6% in 2004.