The 2025 AFL season is almost here, and with fans (and clubs) getting a glimpse of new players and old players, veteran coaches and newbies, it's time to look at ESPN's coaching pressure power rankings.
From taking into consideration last year's results, this year's expectation, time in the job, and what needs to happen this season; we've looked at all 18 coaches to see who should feel comfortable, who should be on notice, and who is really under the pump.
Note: We've ordered this so that the safest coaches are at the top of the rankings, and the most under pressure coaches are at the bottom.
Safe as houses
18. Chris Fagan
Winning a premiership does wonders, and it certainly released a lot of pressure on Fagan and the Lions after years of falling short. It was just rewards for a side that had made at least the second week of finals every season since 2019 (bearing in mind that does include a couple of straight sets exits). Fagan deserves to be under the least amount of pressure of any coach heading into 2025, but with the added variable of no Joe Daniher -- but a bolstered midfield which includes draft phenom Levi Ashcroft -- for their premiership defence, the Lions' season will certainly be one to watch.
17. Sam Mitchell
Now into his fourth season in the league (which, when did that happen by the way?!) Mitchell is making the strides Hawthorn fans hoped he would. With a young, exciting list under his watch, 2024 was the club's best since 2018 under Alastair Clarkson. With 14 wins and a surging sense of optimism, there's not a lot of pressure on Mitchell this year; in fact, even if the Hawks slide in terms of ladder position, but continue to show the signs of growth for long term success, it should be considered a win. Mitchell is a favourite son at Hawthorn, and there appears to be no reason for anyone to worry about his tenure.
16. Dean Cox
Sydney doesn't do short-term coaching appointments. Paul Roos coached for nearly nine years. John Longmire for 14 years. Now Cox has taken over after a long apprenticeship, and while there'll be pressure to deliver success with a list full of talent (across most lines), Cox's job is as safe as it can get for the short and medium term. The biggest challenge for Cox in the long term will be ensuring the culture of sustained success at Sydney continues. After all, it's a club which, since 2002, has finished outside the top eight just three times.
15. Adam Kingsley
Signed until the end of the 2028 season, Kingsley is a popular figure in Sydney's west, and with two seasons and two finals appearances under his belt, his job is one of the safest in the league, despite how last season ended. You could make the argument that if GWS didn't capitulate against the Lions in the semifinal, they would have been a favourite to make the Grand Final, having already beaten the Cats throughout the home-and-away season. Kingsley will have an interesting weapon at his disposal in new recruit Jake Stringer, and while the Giants lost a few players in the offseason, no out-and-out stars left the nest.
14. Andrew McQualter
New coaches are usually considered pretty safe in their first year, and that should definitely be the case for McQualter. Taking over after three straight bottom four finishes (including a 3-20 season in 2023), the incoming former Saints player will be given time to shape his team and discover an identity. Expectations aren't high at the Eagles, particularly after the departures of key position pieces Tom Barrass and Jack Darling, but the addition of Liam Baker, Matt Owies and Jack Graham, as well as local draftee Bo Allen will give fans something to follow with interest throughout the season.
13. Chris Scott
Geelong bounced back wonderfully last season after missing finals in 2023, falling agonisingly short in a preliminary final to the Lions at the MCG. Under Scott, the Cats are a well-drilled outfit, and the addition of exciting midfielder Bailey Smith and shrewd acquisition of Jack Martin could improve this side to go one (or maybe two) better in 2025. Already Geelong's longest-serving coach, as long as Scott wants to be at the Cattery, he'll likely be there.
Sitting comfortably
12. Craig McRae
Two seasons out from a premiership triumph, McRae should feel quite safe in his role, despite missing finals last season. It isn't unusual for a premier to suffer a hangover in recent years, the Cats had the same fate in 2023 after their 2022 triumph, Collingwood's laden with talent, and the addition of Dan Houston and Harry Perryman should bolster an already deep list. Having said that, Collingwood is clearly the oldest and most experienced playing group in the league, so expectations should be high and but with a caveat that the window could be closing soon.
11. Damien Hardwick
It wasn't the ideal first season in charge of the Suns for Hardwick. After boldly declaring that 80% of a premiership team was already on the list, and after chairman Bob East claimed finals was the pass mark for the season, the Suns fell short, again, in curious fashion. They won just two games on the road (an after-the-siren win against the Bombers and a Round 24 win against the lowly Tigers) but were very strong at home. And while ultimately finishing a disappointing 11th, there's something to work with for Hardwick. Turning People First Stadium into a fortress was a good start, but this year he needs to add a hard edge on the road, or his six-year deal could come under review quickly.
10. Alastair Clarkson
The Kangaroos were always going to need time, and despite posting just three wins last year, there were encouraging signs in the back half of the year that the worst was behind Clarkson's side. A heartbreaking late loss to reigning premier Collingwood was one missed opportunity, a four-point loss to the Demons the week after another. Harry Sheezel continued to impress, as did Colby McKercher, and with some veteran help (think Luke Parker and Jack Darling) linking up with prized draftee Finn O'Sullivan in 2025, Clarkson's squad -- the youngest in the league -- should improve, and his job remain very much safe.
9. Adem Yze
Yze is a difficult coach to judge coming into 2025. The Tigers are expected to finish last, that's not really up for debate at this stage, and some experts have even predicted a winless season. So what to make of Yze? He really should be considered safe; the club knows where it's at, but strings of heavy losses will inevitably have some calling for a change of coach, despite the fact it would change nothing, and improve nothing. Maybe we're hopeful having Yze in this category, but he needs to be given time to start developing the bounty of draftees that will play a massive role in Richmond's future.
Wouldn't want to be underperforming
8. Michael Voss
A casual glance at Carlton's 2024 season and you'd think it's a fail. After notching two finals wins and making a prelim in 2023, the Blues regressed in 2024, but weren't helped by a number of injuries to key players throughout the season. Of course, injuries aren't unique to the Blues, but they really limped over the line, finishing eighth and scraping into September, only to be smashed by eventual premier Brisbane in their elimination final. Is the heat on Voss? Not really, but Carlton's fan base does tend to get restless, so he wouldn't want to be underperforming early in 2025.
7. Ross Lyon
St Kilda's 2024 season was about as mediocre as they come. Lyon's side won 11 games and lost 12, with a ho-hum percentage of 99.4. Regressing after making finals in 2023, there'll be a little bit more pressure on Lyon to deliver improvement this coming season, but with a draft haul that didn't seem to address the club's biggest needs, and Jack Macrae being the club's 'marquee' addition, there's not a lot which suggests the Saints are going to leap up the ladder with any velocity.
6. Brad Scott
Two years, two 11-win seasons for Scott at the Bombers, and no finals appearances. Last year, Essendon seemed destined for finals action once again, sitting as high as fourth as late as Round 17, before another late-season capitulation left them in 11th. It subsequently led to the end of whipping boy recruiting boss Adrian Dodoro's tenure, and put the pressure firmly on Scott for 2025. The issue for Essendon will be if it can surge ahead of the pack; with up to a dozen (or more) teams set to be thereabouts again this season. Making the eight is no easy task, and a third straight year with no finals won't be a good look for the former Kangas coach.
5. Ken Hinkley
Hinkley is in an interesting spot. A month ago, he was the stand out No. 1 on this list, but after it was announced this year would be his last at the Power's helm, with Josh Carr to take over at year's end, Hinkley really isn't under as much pressure this year. His fate is sealed. It's a free hit with what really is a supremely talented list. Having said that, would a poor start to the season hasten the process? Probably, hence his position on this list.
Blowtorch is ready...
4. Simon Goodwin
Last year was a disaster for Melbourne, and Goodwin. Aside from finishing 15th, Goodwin and the club came under fire for its handling of Christian Petracca's injury, while Clayton Oliver was a shadow of himself after persistent injury concerns and a stint in hospital in 2023. The Petracca saga might not be over. We don't know how Oliver will perform this year. Kysaiah Pickett could be on the move at the end of the season, and Max Gawn is 33. Draftees Harvey Langford and Xavier Lindsay may get an early look in, but they can't be expected to shoot the Dees back up the ladder and into contention. Goodwin is under the pump as this side's window starts to close.
3. Justin Longmuir
Hang on, but aren't the Dockers widely tipped to rise, and are among the early premiership contenders? Exactly. Longmuir needs to deliver, and in his sixth season in charge, his fifth-place finish in 2022 stands out as the exception and not the rule. With finishes of 12th, 11th, 5th, 14th, and 10th so far, the Dockers really need to capitalise on what is one of the most talented lists in the league, and the recruitment of Shai Bolton certainly feels like a 'cherry on top' type addition. If the Dockers start slowly, or find themselves behind the pack after the first couple of months, strong questions will deservedly be asked, especially given Longmuir is out of contract this year.
2. Luke Beveridge
It feels like Beveridge is perennially under pressure, but he should be coming into the final year of his current contract. The top end talent on the Dogs' list is strong enough to contend and has been for many years, but it's depth which has long been an issue. While his side featured in September in 2024 after missing out in 2023, the Bulldogs fell to a rampant Hawthorn in an elimination final -- the season ending on a decidedly disappointing note. What's a pass mark for Beveridge's side this year? Winning a final? More, probably. The list doesn't scream 'geunine contender', but even still, a 3-5 start like last season could have the Dogs looking elsewhere.
1. Matthew Nicks
Coming into his sixth year now as Crows coach, Nicks still hasn't made finals after five finishes outside the top eight (18th, 15th, 14th, 10th, and 15th). Of the 89 coaches to have been at the helm for at least 100 games in VFL/AFL history, he has the eighth worst win rate (35%). To say he's under the pump is putting it lightly. The Crows missed out on finals by a whisker in 2023, but regressed to finish in the bottom four in 2024, putting Nicks on notice and his future in doubt. Adelaide hasn't played finals since the infamous 2017 Grand Final, and it's hard to see that streak ending this year given the number of teams set to contend.