We all know how even the AFL competition is these days. And where it matters most, too, the top of the ladder. So much so that arguing a case for the 2025 premiership chances of maybe up to half the 18 teams this season isn't too great a stretch.
But we're in the reality business here at ESPN. And theoretical flag chances are a long way from reality.
Yes, some teams could potentially take out the premiership were absolutely everything to go right. And the chances of everything going right over a grueling six months with injuries and the odd twist of fate taking its toll? Zilch.
So my list of teams which can win the flag is perhaps as notable for who isn't there as who is. There's no Port Adelaide. Again. Frankly, I still don't think the Power have sufficient talent to go all the way.
At the time of writing, much-hyped Hawthorn was outright second flag favorite at $8.50. Frankly, I think that's way too short. The Hawks' best may still be a couple of years away. They're still relatively young. I think perhaps also potentially thin up forward. And their draw is a lot tougher this year than last.
Carlton is capable of good things, certainly given a better run with injury than last year. The Blues certainly have plenty of cream at the top. Are they a bit thin at the bottom, though? A bit one-paced midfield? And is their game style efficient enough? I have my doubts.
From outside last year's top eight, Collingwood and Fremantle will have their backers. But the Pies to me look like a classic case now of "everyone needs to stand up", easily the oldest list in the AFL with 10 players older than 30.
Freo are potentially very exciting, particularly with the addition of Richmond star Shai Bolton. Potential, however, is the key here. The Dockers are still overly cautious with ball in hand. Still don't score quite enough. And for a WA team, performing consistently well enough on the road right through a season is still a big ask.
Okay, so who really CAN win the 2025 premiership. I think there's just five teams. And in order of probability, they are:
GEELONG
Yep, I'm loading up on the Cats to win it. I jumped right on their bandwagon about halfway through last season, and would argue very strongly had it not been for an untimely injury to Max Holmes in the preliminary final, I would have been right.
Geelong has transformed brilliantly from the oldest side in history which won the 2022 flag. The Cats are still the AFL's third-most experienced list, but no fewer than seven of the top 10 from last year's best and fairest -- Holmes, Zach Guthrie, Tyson Stengle, Gryan Miers, Ollie Dempsey, Ollie Henry and Brad Close -- are still 26 or younger.
The Cats' backline, driven by Tom Stewart is solid as ever. The Cats' ranked third for scores last year without the (now retired) Tom Hawkins being a contributor.
They have the game's best key forward in Jeremy Cameron, the ever-improving Ollie Henry and Shannon Neale alongside him, and a terrific mix of ground-level and medium-sized forwards in Stengle, Miers, Close and Dempsey.
I think the midfield group is underrated, too, Bailey Smith a tremendous addition to Holmes, Patrick Dangerfield, Tanner Bruhn, Jack Bowes, Tom Atkins and co.
Brilliantly-coached by Chris Scott, this is for mine the AFL's most reliable playing group week to week. I think in 2025 they might just prove to the best when it counts, too.
BRISBANE
Reigning premiers don't have a great track record in backing up of late, three of the last four having missed the top eight altogether the following season. You'd like the odds of the Lions defying that trend, however, given not only how consistent they've been for six AFL seasons on end now, but how they've continued to improve.
Having finally converted that journey into premiership gold will obviously test the motivation levels, but if ever there was a playing group capable of turning one flag into at least a couple, it's Chris Fagan's. Yes, even minus last year's leading goalkicker, the retired Joe Daniher.
The Lions have a good spread of forward weapons, recruit Sam Day probably merely backup to a potential star in Logan Morris, Eric Hipwood with more room now for his light to shine, Charlie Cameron and the exciting Kai Lohmann and Cam Rayner.
Not to mention arguably the game's best midfield, names like Neale, McCluggage, Dunkley and Ashcroft supported by at least half-a-dozen more potential on-ballers of genuine quality.
Consider, then, the addition of four long-term casualties from last season in Keidean Coleman, Lincoln McCarthy, Darcy Gardiner and Tom Doedee (knee), and you're talking about a list as deep as we've seen in AFL football for some time. Certainly good enough to get at least as far as another Grand Final.
SYDNEY
You'd have to be pretty silly to be throwing the baby out with the bathwater when it comes to discussion of the Swans and premierships.
Yes, they've lost their last four Grand Finals. But two are near enough to a decade ago. A third was with a still pretty raw and inexperienced playing group up against seasoned opposition and very much an underdog.
And as bad as the Grand Final humiliation against Brisbane was, it was also in the context of a season, an outlier.
They've also got a new coach in Dean Cox, which, as outstanding a leader as was John Longmire, might be just the sort of freshener the Sydney formula needs. The Swans have got depth, too, which is just as well given the costly loss of an absolute star in Errol Gulden.
They were the No.1 offensive team last season, with six players kicking 30-plus goals, and near the top for defensive rankings also. And even without Gulden for a protracted period, they've got two of the AFL's absolute best in Isaac Heeney and Chad Warner.
Now the fourth-most experienced list but still only seventh-oldest, the Swans are in a demographic sweet spot. It's just about nailing that one game at the end of it all. And why not this time?
GWS
Like their Sydney rival, the Giants can obsess over the disastrous exit from finals last year -- after finishing top four and leading the two eventual Grand Finalists by plenty -- or absorb the lessons without panic and some consolation from the much longer list of things they got right.
There's a quality list which is still one of the younger and less-experienced. A catalogue of forward talent in the likes of Coleman medallist Jesse Hogan, Aaron Cadman and Toby Greene, who collectively booted 150 goals last season, and are now joined by Jake Stringer. Scarily, there's still room for more scoreboard returns, the Giants only ranked seventh for scores in 2024.
GWS is quick, and moves the ball quickly. And there's a few agents for facilitating that still underestimated as a group in Toby Bedford, Brent Daniels and Darcy Jones, to go with the midfield standards of Tom Green, Finn Callaghan, Stephen Coniglio, Josh Kelly, Callan Ward and co.
Perhaps the only thing left the Giants need is a touch more maturity and resilience, the sort which prevents them surrendering a 44-point lead in a final. Lessons don't come a lot more painful than those infamous defeats to the Swans and Lions.
But perversely, perhaps they will also end up being the making of this enormously-talented group of players under the shrewd auspices of Adam Kingsley.
WESTERN BULLDOGS
Yes, the Dogs have been absolutely smashed by injury, skipper Marcus Bontempelli the latest high-profile casualty. He'll miss up to six weeks, important forward Cody Weightman perhaps close to half a season, Liam Jones and Adam Treloar maybe a month. That's a disaster.
Remember, however, a well-worn football cliché which certainly served Brisbane well in 2024. And that is that the season is a marathon, not a sprint. Indeed, the Bulldogs started last season very poorly with just three wins from their first eight games, yet won eight of their last 10 to finish the season proper in sixth spot.
The Dogs are going to have to mostly likely hang tough again for a while. But if they can, I reckon they are the potential "smokey" in this premiership race.
Why? Several reasons. Solid foundations. The Bulldogs were the best defensive team in the AFL last year, and second-best offensively. It was only stumbles against the likes of Essendon and Adelaide which cost them dearly.
They have the third-oldest and fifth-most experienced list. And a raft of hungry previously second-tier players eager to leap into the gaps left by the departed likes of Bailey Smith, Jack Macrae and Caleb Daniel.
Brisbane proved last season you only have to be the best when it counts to go all the way. It will be challenging, but I don't think that's beyond the Bulldogs this year, either.
You can read more of Rohan Connolly's work at FOOTYOLOGY.