Who are the favourites for the 2025 AFL premiership? Who are the legitimate contenders? And who should already be booking September holidays? Jake Michaels has ranked every club two months into the season.
Note: ESPN's AFL tiers will be a monthly column throughout the 2025 season.
Proof of concept
1. BRISBANE
2. COLLINGWOOD
Is the 2025 premiership a race in two? No. But is there a pair of teams head and shoulders above the competition right now? It feels a bit like that, yeah. The Lions and Magpies, winners of the last two AFL flags, have done little wrong through the first third of the season, putting the league on notice with a combined 13-3 record. Any fears we had about either club have been put to rest; there is no Lions premiership hangover and the Magpies certainly aren't too old. We know these two sides have the cattle to not only go on a deep finals run, but win the whole thing.
The Nick Kyrgioses
3. HAWTHORN
4. GEELONG
5. ADELAIDE
Just like Nick Kyrgios, the best of these teams is so damn good you wonder how they ever lose. But then you see the worst of them and you're reminded precisely why. Still, give me a team with a high ceiling and low floor over a consistent middling side any day of the week. The Hawks remain arguably the most dynamic, must-watch team in the competition, enjoying contributions from a bunch of unheralded players week in, week out. The Cats might have the best coach in the league in Chris Scott, the greatest X-factor in Patrick Dangerfield, and the recruit of the year in Bailey Smith. And then there's the Crows, who, when on song, seem to be able to score points at will. All three teams are incredibly dangerous and in the premiership window (yep, even the Crows).
Lurking in the shadows
6. WESTERN BULLDOGS
Speaking of dangerous ... is there a scarier side in the league than the Bulldogs at full flight? Power fans would certainly argue there isn't. Luke Beveridge's team expertly navigated the first quarter of the season without a host of its stars, including inspirational skipper Marcus Bontempelli, now they're sitting pretty at 5-3. Losing Sam Darcy for three months is no doubt a serious blow, as is the uncertainty around Jamarra Ugle-Hagan, but on the whole they are much healthier now and will continue building into the season. I only expect them to rise up these tiers as the year progresses.
Genuine fraud watch
7. GWS
8. GOLD COAST
9. FREMANTLE
10. CARLTON
Admittedly, it feels as if half the teams in the competition would be right at home in this tier, such is the unpredictable nature of the season and performance fluctuation from week to week. But these four sides are ones that, at some point this year, have been discussed in premiership circles. And while they've each shown to be capable of the monster performance, they've also been prone to the absolute stinker. All four four clubs laid an egg this past weekend, two of them suffering humiliating losses. However, nobody would be surprised if they all bounced back and won this weekend. But until they can offer some level of consistency, 'frauds' feels like a fitting label.
Aside from their own fans, who cares?
11. ESSENDON
12. ST KILDA
Decent records? Sure. Some impressive footy at times? Yeah, I'll pay that. Any chance they play finals or are relevant in the back half of this season? Sorry, I don't see it. Just as in previous years, Essendon and St Kilda fans can jump up and down all they like, claiming this is their season, but we all know, deep down, it is not. At this point in time, neither club has enough talent on the list to make any sort of meaningful run. I urge you all to not buy any hype, you're bound to be left disappointed.
Barely hanging on
13. SYDNEY
14. PORT ADELAIDE
15. MELBOURNE
A big part of me is ready to get the red pen out and draw a line through these three clubs. They've all significantly underwhelmed through the first third of the season, have many deficiencies, and so much work to do to turn things around. But there's still that little voice in my head that says "maybe, just maybe" one, or more, can get going and re-establish themselves as perhaps a fringe contender. One thing is for sure, if they haven't turned things around by the next edition of tiers, I'll be telling them all to begin booking their September holidays.
Embarrassingly bad
16. RICHMOND
17. NORTH MELBOURNE
18. WEST COAST
Yes, yes, I understand there have been some impressive signs from the Tigers, and to a lesser extent the Kangaroos, but these three teams remain so far below the rest of the competition it's not funny. Richmond, North Melbourne, and West Coast occupy the bottom three spots on the ladder and have a combined 11 losses by 50+ points this season. You know a side is horrible when the 'will they win a game this season' question gets asked week in, week out. So far, the Eagles are 0-8 and have a woeful percentage of 57.7. Will they win a game this season? They should, but I'm not exactly convinced.