Each week of the 2025 AFL season, ESPN.com.au's Jake Michaels looks at six talking points.
This week's Six Points feature the brutal, bad Bombers, why the Bulldogs might as well be premiership favourites, the recruits of the season (so far), and some overdue love for an unheralded small forward.
1. Essendon is closer to Richmond and West Coast than the top eight
Last year, I claimed Essendon was a side that in reality was closer to the bottom four than the top eight. R.I.P, my social media inboxes. But here we are, a year on, and I'm fully prepared to double down on that take.
The Bombers may be sitting relatively comfortable in 10th spot on the ladder, boasting a winning record of 5-4 (with a game in hand), but make no mistake, this football club is one we mustn't be taking seriously in 2025. It's not just last week's crippling, club questioning 91-point loss to the Bulldogs that's formed this opinion, rather another two-and-a-half months of data that suggests Brad Scott's side not only doesn't do much well, but does most things poorly.
Champion Data's premiership standards report, which looks at the 32 most important areas a club must excel in if they are to taste flag success, has the Bombers ranking bottom six in 18 of those categories, and the bottom three in nine! Only the lowly Eagles, Tigers, and Kangaroos fare worse. Put simply, Essendon doesn't score enough, concedes too much, is horrific with ball movement and its conversion. On the flip side, the club ranks top five in just one of those 32 categories. Even North Melbourne check two of the boxes!
FACT: Essendon has just two 'elite' players on its list, per Champion Data (Nic Martin and Xavier Duursma).
Sure, the win-loss record looks respectable, and it is, but once again it's a case of who have they actually beaten? The Bombers are 0-4 against the current top eight this season, with an average losing margin of 55 points. It's an ongoing trend from the past two years where they were 6-14 against eventual finalists. That's not good enough for a side that I'm consistently told is ready to take the leap into the competition's top tier.
Bombers fans, you can jump up and down all you like. You can even call me a hater. But it's the same old story with this club, and these numbers don't lie.
2. The Bulldogs should probably be premiership favourites
The Western Bulldogs have been labelled the most scary, most dangerous, and most likely side to go on a deep finals run in 2025. Not only do I agree with all three sentiments, but right now, it's tough to pick a team more likely to win the premiership than these rampant Dogs. Okay, I'll give you Collingwood. Craig McRae's squad is at least on par. But is there anyone else? I don't think so.
The Bulldogs began the year with a plethora of injuries, serious questions on whether its coach Luke Beveridge should be offered a contract extension, and perhaps the most daunting fixture of all. Here they are heading into a crunch Round 11 clash against the Cats sitting pretty in fifth on the ladder, boasting the best percentage in the league, and now getting healthier by the week.
In contrast to the Bombers, the Bulldogs are lighting up Champion Data's premiership standards report. After 10 games, they rank top six in 21 of those 32 key categories, more than any other team in the competition ... the Magpies included. The kicker? The Dogs rank bottom five in none of them.
This season, the Bulldogs have been the best overall scoring team, the best at scoring from stoppages, the best conversion team, the best at transitioning from defence to attack, and have the best clearance differential. They're doing so much right and that's still without the likes of Sam Darcy, Liam Jones, and Adam Treloar, not to mention Cody Weightman and Jamarra Ugle-Hagan, who haven't featured at all in 2025.
We know their best is good enough. Can they keep the momentum going either side of the bye?
On the ESPN Footy Podcast, Jake Michaels makes the case the Western Bulldogs aren't just finals contenders, but a genuine premiership challenger.
3. The best recruits of the year ... so far
We're just about at the halfway point of the home and away season, which means it's time to take a look at the best off-season pick ups. Here are my top five recruits of the year, in order:
1. Bailey Smith (Geelong)
2. Matt Kennedy (Western Bulldogs)
3. Daniel Rioli (Gold Coast)
4. Jack Macrae (St Kilda)
5. Shai Bolton (Fremantle)
Each of these five players has added an enormous amount to their new club. Bolton may have started slowly but has rounded into his match-winning form, Macrae has rediscovered his ball winning prowess back in the middle of the ground, though is now expected to miss some time, Rioli has added much-needed drive to the Suns' halfback line, and Kennedy might be the best midfield rotation player in the competition. But I'm not sure anyone has done more than Smith.
The former Bulldog, now Cat, has been arguably the player of the season to date. Smith has averaged more Rating Points than any other recruit this season and currently sits third in ESPN's Brownlow Medal predictor. He is averaging 30 disposals, 10 contested possessions, five clearances, and 500 metres gained per outing in 2025, the only player in the league to boast those minimums. In fact, the only players in recorded history to end a season with such numbers are Gary Ablett, Dane Swan, Patrick Dangerfield, and Matthew Boyd.
4. Take a bow, Jack Higgins
If the All-Australian team was being selected right at this moment, Jack Higgins would have to be the first player selected. The St Kilda goalsneak is so far ahead of the league's other general forwards and is standing out like a sore thumb (for all of the right reasons) on the Coleman Medal leaderboard.
Higgins has booted 28 goals for the year, only just trailing leader Ben King. The next best general forward on the list is Jamie Elliott on 23, then Ben Long on 19. It's an extraordinary return for a player of Higgins' size, especially considering his club has won just four games and managed to tally 100 points only once this season.
Higgins is one of just five players to boast goals in every game this season, alongside King, Jeremy Cameron, Nick Larkey, and Cam Zurhaar. He also has the equal-most games of at least three goals in 2025, tied with Adelaide pair Darcy Fogarty and Riley Thilthorpe.
5. Something quirky I noticed
The annual Dreamtime at the 'G clash between Essendon and Richmond has become one of the most highly anticipated games on the AFL fixture since its inception in 2005. But did you know this year's edition will be the first one not staged on a Saturday night?
This week, the Bombers and Tigers will do battle on Friday evening at the MCG. Why, you ask? Well, given Fox Footy owns exclusive Saturday football rights in 2025 and this game had to be broadcast on free-to-air television, the AFL was left with no choice but to shift the fixture a day earlier.
6. My favourite stat of the week
Round 10, 2025 was the first time in recorded history TWO players amassed 1,000 metres gained. Both Sun John Noble and Bulldog Bailey Dale hit the magical 1km of territory mark in their respective games over the weekend, making them just the 13th and 14th players to achieve the rare feat.
Amazingly, we very nearly had a third player join the group in the same round. St Kilda's Jack Sinclair finished his game on 953 metres gained, just one long kick short of the four-figure mark.