ESPN Chalk's Joe Peta is sharing his season win total projections for every MLB team, including a reason for optimism and pessimism. Plus, he recommends an over/under play, or a pass. This is the entry for the Milwaukee Brewers.
Milwaukee Brewers
Reason for optimism: Many of the key pieces from the team that had the best record in the NL Central through the first 81 games of 2014 return.
Reason for pessimism: Many of the key pieces from the team that had the worst record in the NL Central over the last 81 games of 2014 return.
Troy Tulowitzki has multiple 6-WAR seasons, as do Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels, and Paul Goldschmidt is a strong MVP candidate. Those are three teams -- Colorado Rockies, Philadelphia Phillies and Arizona Diamondbacks -- with perennial award-season candidates still in their prime, and all are potential last-place teams, one of which most certainly will be the worst team in the league. Which brings us to the Brewers and Ryan Braun, Carlos Gomez, Jonathan Lucroy et al.
Like the Rockies, Milwaukee would appear to have a playoff-caliber offense paired with
This year, Adam Lind (acquired in a trade with the Toronto Blue Jays for Marco Estrada) has been installed at first base. His career slash line (.273/.327/.466) is unquestionably an improvement over the past two years of production, but the Brewers appear to have paid a steep price for what might be a league-average, over-30 first baseman. The trade of Estrada is just one hole in the starting rotation that needs to be filled. The Brewers will also be without the services of Yovani Gallardo, who gave Milwaukee at least 30 starts each of the past seven years.
Those departures leave the Brewers with only five pitchers who started a game for the team last year. Unless they have perfect health (the average team used 10 different starters last year) that means a lot of starts are going to go to back-end starters with 5.00-ERA talent. The bullpen, a potential bright spot, has a lot of high-strikeout talent.
Milwaukee's front office almost certainly remembers the Brewers' hot start last year and figures the lineup can compete in 2015 thanks to the presence of a number of All-Stars. It's true that after 81 games, the Brewers were in first place by 5½ games. However, there is an alternate, far-more-sobering reality: Milwaukee got worse every quarter of the season. Only the Atlanta Braves, another team clearly in decline, matched that pace. Losing Estrada and Gallardo from a team that was in persistent decline over the last 121 games should temper any thoughts of contending for the division title.
There are enticing offensive talents on the Brewers, but Milwaukee projects to have a very weak rotation. It's a team that profiles very similarly to the Rockies, with an even better bullpen and an even more balanced lineup. Like the Rockies, a .500 season isn't expected, and a last-place finish is a very real possibility. Milwaukee's total wins market currently sits at 78.5, and that looks fair.
2015 projection: 77-85 (fifth, NL Central)
Bet recommendation: Pass