Mike Clay is a senior writer for fantasy football and the NFL at ESPN. Mike is a member of the FSWA Hall of Fame. His projections power the ESPN Fantasy Football game, and he also appears on "Fantasy Football Now" and the Fantasy Focus Football podcast.
Week 10's weekend action is right around the corner, and the betting market is loaded with player props. That's why we're bringing you the NFL betting playbook, highlighting some of the top options for each game.
Now, you might already be familiar with my weekly playbook for fantasy football, which features score projections, over/unders, win probabilities and easily digestible fantasy advice for season-long and DFS leagues. Similarly, my weekly betting playbook features several data points for each of this weekend's scheduled games, along with my analysis of a few notable lines I'm interested in betting, although this article is designed in a way that allows you to pick your own favorites.
Note: Odds by ESPN BET and correct as of time of publication.
Money Line: Indianapolis Colts (-125) ; New England Patriots (+105) Total: 42.5; Opened: 41.5 FPI favorite: Colts by 0.8 (52.4% to win outright)
Line Movement Alert: Opened Patriots -1
Projected Score: Colts 22, Patriots 18
Jonathan Taylor anytime TD (+110): Since returning to a substantive offensive role in Week 6, Taylor has scored twice in four games, with a team-high expected TD mark of 2.5. Taylor has had two carries inside the opponent's 5-yard line in the past two games, which is tied with Zack Moss and Gardner Minshew for most on the team since Week 6. Despite sharing the backfield with Moss, Taylor ranks sixth in RB touches over the past four weeks. New England has allowed eight RB touchdowns this season (10th most), including at least one in seven out of nine games. Moss is also a fine "anytime TD" bet at +320.
Deshaun Watson over 28.5 passing attempts (-120): Betting overs on Watson has added risk considering his shoulder woes, but there's enough of a gap between my projection (32.6) and the line to make it worthwhile. Watson has played on most or all of the snaps in four games this season, and he has cleared 28 pass attempts in all four (33.0 average). Cleveland called a balanced offense in those four weeks, compared to being the league's run-heaviest offense the other four weeks. Albeit against an absurdly light schedule, Baltimore's defense has been elite this season, but it has nonetheless faced at least 29 passing attempts in seven out of nine games. The Ravens have faced 37.3 attempts per game, which is seventh highest in the NFL. Especially with Baltimore favored, Watson should be throwing plenty in this one.
Joe Mixon under 63.5 rushing yards (-137): Mixon was held to just 37 rushing yards against the Bills last week and is now averaging 61.2 per game this season. The veteran back has reached 64 yards in four of his eight games and the Bengals have followed through with a plan to cut back on his workload a bit, bumping him from 84% of the team's designed runs during his first six games to 67% over the last two weeks. Mixon's efficiency has been a bit below average (3.9 YPC, 1.7 YAC) and he's set to face a Houston defense that has allowed 3.3 RB YPC (second lowest). Five backs have reached 64 yards against Houston, although four of them required 18-plus carries to do so (the quintet averaged 18.0 carries). Mixon is averaging 15.8 carries per game and has hit 18 only twice this season while working in the league's No.2 pass-heaviest scheme.
Money Line: San Francisco 49ers (-170) ; Jacksonville Jaguars (+145) Total: 45.5; Opened: 44 FPI favorite: 49ers by 2.1 (56.4% to win outright)
Projected Score: Jaguars 24, 49ers 24
Travis Etienne Jr. anytime TD (-105): Etienne has been a rock star this season, playing on 81% of Jaguars snaps and averaging 22.3 touches per game. Etienne has found the end zone eight times in as many games and has at least one score in four straight outings. Teams haven't run on the 49ers much (second-fewest RB carries faced), but they've been fairly productive when they have tried (4.1 YPC and five TDs allowed is near the middle of the pack). The 49ers have allowed at least one RB touchdown in four out of eight games.
Money Line: New Orleans Saints (-145) ; Minnesota Vikings (+125) Total: 40.5; Opened: 38.5 FPI favorite: Vikings by 0 (50.1% to win outright)
Projected Score: Saints 20, Vikings 19
Camryn Bynum over 4.5 solo tackles (+110): Let's head back to the gift that keeps on giving: Minnesota's safeties. Bynum has reached five solos in all but one game this season -- last week against Atlanta (2). Even after the dud, Bynum is averaging 6.2 solos per game. He's a full-time player, with his lone missed snap coming way back in Week 1.
Demario Davis under 3.5 assists (-167): Davis has produced four or more assists only once in nine games this season -- against the Colts in Week 8 (8). The veteran linebacker is averaging 2.8 assists per game and, if you exclude the Week 8 outlier, that dips down to 2.3 per game. This line is too low, so we're paying for it with some ugly vig.
Money Line: Green Bay Packers (+150) ; Pittsburgh Steelers (-175) Total: 38.5; Opened: 37 FPI favorite: Steelers by 3.3 (59.6% to win outright)
Projected Score: Steelers 20, Packers 18
Luke Musgrave over 2.5 receptions (-135): Musgrave has reached three receptions in five out of eight games this season, including three of his past four. The rookie tight end is averaging 4.4 targets and 3.4 receptions per game, and his 77% catch rate is sixth best among 24 qualified tight ends. Pittsburgh has been good against tight ends, yet has still allowed three-plus catches to a tight end in six games -- including a 10-catch effort by Evan Engram in Week 8.
Money Line: Tennessee Titans (+100) ; Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-120) Total: 39.5; Opened: 38 FPI favorite: Buccaneers by 1.6 (54.8% to win outright)
Projected Score: Buccaneers 23, Titans 22
Will Levis over 29.5 passing attempts (-132): Levis has replaced Ryan Tannehill as the Titans starter. The rookie quarterback attempted 29 passes in his NFL debut in Week 8 before throwing 39 passes against the Steelers last week. He's set to take on a Buccaneers defense that has faced the fifth-most passing attempts this season and has allowed the fifth-most completions, second-most passing yards and sixth-most passing scores (13), as well as a 7.9 YPA (third highest). Tampa Bay has faced 37.5 passing attempts per game, and of their eight opponents, only the Bears (29) and Falcons (25) failed to attempt 30 passes. Those happen to be the league's two run-heaviest teams. The other six offenses all had 37-plus attempts.
Money Line: Atlanta Falcons (-125) ; Arizona Cardinals (+105) Total: 43.5; Opened: 41 FPI favorite: Falcons by 2.5 (57.5% to win outright)
Projected Score: Cardinals 20, Falcons 20
Michael Wilson under 3.5 receptions (-161): Wilson has registered more than three catches in only two out of eight games. The rookie has been a mainstay in the Arizona offense (76% snap share, including 87% in his past three games), but that playing time has only allowed for 4.0 targets and 3.1 receptions per game. There's also an element of the unknown here as he plays his first game with Kyler Murray. Atlanta has allowed the sixth-fewest WR receptions this season.
Money Line: Detroit Lions (-155) ; Los Angeles Chargers (+135) Total: 48.5; Opened: 48.5 FPI favorite: Chargers by 3.1 (59.2% to win outright)
Line Movement Alert: Opened Chargers -1
Projected Score: Chargers 24, Lions 24
Asante Samuel Jr. over 2.5 solo tackles (-167): Samuel has produced at least three solo tackles in seven out of eight games, and the only exception was when he was limited to a season-low 77% of defensive snaps way back in Week 1. Samuel has since played on 95% of snaps and is averaging 4.9 solos per game during the span. Detroit's offense is allowing the second-most tackles per game this season.
Tracy Walker III under 6.5 total tackles (-125): Walker has produced more than six total tackles only once this season. After barely seeing the field during Weeks 1-2, Walker played on 99% of Detroit's defensive snaps during the team's next five games. He averaged 5.4 tackles per game and reached seven tackles once (Week 7). In the team's most recent game, Brian Branch emerged as an every-down player, which knocked Walker's snap share down to 76%. He had six total tackles in the game. Considering Walker already rarely hit this mark and has seen a dip in playing time, the under is the play. Note that the vig is getting uglier here, but I like it down to -130.
Money Line: New York Giants (+800) ; Dallas Cowboys (-1400) Total: 38.5; Opened: 38.5 FPI favorite: Cowboys by 17.1 (89.9% to win outright)
Line Movement Alert: Opened Cowboys -10
Projected Score: Cowboys 23, Giants 13
Tommy DeVito over 157.5 passing yards (-119): This is easily the lowest passing yardage prop we've seen this season, and of the five prior lowest, four went over. DeVito actually went over this line after subbing in for injured Daniel Jones last week (175 yards on 20 attempts against the Raiders). The Cowboys have allowed at least 170 passing yards in seven straight games. There's major "bust" potential here with the unproven DeVito, but the line is low enough that the over is worth consideration.
Money Line: Washington Commanders (+240) ; Seattle Seahawks (-290) Total: 44.5; Opened: NL FPI favorite: Seahawks by 6.1 (67.5% to win outright)
Projected Score: Seahawks 24, Commanders 20
Terry McLaurin over 4.5 receptions (-152): McLaurin has cleared this mark in seven out of nine games this season, including four straight outings. McLaurin is averaging 7.9 targets and 5.2 receptions per game in an high-volume Washington offense that ranks No. 1 in the NFL in passing attempts and completions per game. Seattle has allowed the fourth-most WR receptions this season, and at least one wideout has caught five-plus passes against them in seven out of their eight games. In fact, 11 total wideouts have reached five catches against Seattle.
Money Line: New York Jets (-110) ; Las Vegas Raiders (-110) Total: 36.5; Opened: NL FPI favorite: Jets by 1.9 (55.8% to win outright)
Projected Score: Raiders 16, Jets 14
Garrett Wilson under 5.5 receptions (-143): Wilson has hit six receptions in three straight games, but he did so in only one of his first five games this season. Wilson has been heavily utilized (32% target share), though with the Jets' QB issues continuing, his 57% catch rate isn't far off his ugly 56% rookie-season rate. The Raiders have allowed the ninth-fewest WR receptions this season,and only five receivers have even reached five catches against them.
Courtland Sutton anytime TD (+240): We're getting solid vig here considering Sutton has scored in 75% of his games this season. That includes one touchdown in three straight games and five of his past six. The veteran receiver is handling a solid 23% target share, and his eight end zone targets are fourth most in the NFL. The Bills have quietly allowed the ninth-highest yards per target (8.5) and fifth-highest catch rate (71%) to wide receivers this season. They've surrendered seven touchdowns to receivers, including at least one in six out of nine games.
Indianapolis Colts -2.5 @ New England Patriots
Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens -6.5
Houston Texans @ Cincinnati Bengals -6.5
San Francisco 49ers -3 @ Jacksonville Jaguars
New Orleans Saints -3 @ Minnesota Vikings
Green Bay Packers @ Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5
Tennessee Titans @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1
Atlanta Falcons -2 @ Arizona Cardinals
Detroit Lions -3 @ Los Angeles Chargers
New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys -17
Washington Commanders @ Seattle Seahawks -6.5
New York Jets @ Las Vegas Raiders -1
Denver Broncos @ Buffalo Bills -7