Welcome to the Fantasy Football Playbook for Week 10, which kicked off Thursday night with the Panthers at the Bears.
This column features score projections, over/unders, win probabilities and, of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for season-long and DFS leagues. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision-making, including sit/start decisions, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices.
The advice is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with relatively standard scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 Flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST), although I'll often mention "shallow" or "deep" leagues for some starters. The charts show all players who have been projected for at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/STs. "Matchup" is automatically determined using a proprietary metric that factors in raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed to each position by the opposing defense this season.
(Editor's note: Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player might be ranked slightly higher or lower because of other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to possible updates during the weekend, although at the very minimum, rankings will be updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff. Odds by ESPN BET.)
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Indianapolis Colts -1.5 @ New England Patriots
Frankfurt Stadium, Frankfurt, Germany
Sunday 9:30 a.m. ET
Lineup locks: Jonathan Taylor, Rhamondre Stevenson, Michael Pittman Jr.
Zack Moss is no longer a recommended start after Taylor finally took clear control of the Colts' backfield in Week 9. Taylor played on a season-high 75% of snaps and handled 18 carries and five targets. Moss played on a season-low 19% of snaps and was limited to just seven carries -- with no targets. Moss, who has a total of three targets over his past three games, is now best left on benches, although he remains an elite insurance hold.
Over/Under: 40.1 (9th highest)
Win Probability: Colts 66% (5th highest)
Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens -6
M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore
Sunday 1 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Lamar Jackson, Amari Cooper, Mark Andrews, David Njoku
It's rare that a player with six touchdowns over his past three games is not a lineup lock, but that's the case for Gus Edwards after a game in which he was limited to only five carries and no targets on 14 snaps (19%). It's possible his role will rebound this week, but there is added competition for work with Keaton Mitchell (nine carries and one target on 13 snaps) joining Edwards and Justice Hill (13 carries and one target on 48 snaps) in the rotation. Edwards has produced three straight top-12 fantasy weeks after having no top-20 performances in his first six games. He's likely headed for some serious regression to the mean, especially this week against a Cleveland defense that has allowed the third-fewest RB fantasy points.
Zay Flowers got his career off to a hot start with nine catches, 78 yards and 17.7 fantasy points in Week 1, but the rookie has been unable to match any of those numbers since. Flowers has just one touchdown on the season (Week 6), and his targets have progressively dipped over the past month. Flowers was targeted only once in Week 9 and has been held to six or fewer targets in three straight games. Flowers has yet to deliver a top-12 fantasy week, but he's seeing just enough usage to keep him in the flex mix against a Cleveland defense that has allowed the second-fewest WR fantasy points. Flowers was held to 56 yards in the Week 4 meeting between these teams.
Over/Under: 40.5 (8th highest)
Win Probability: Ravens 78% (3rd highest)
Houston Texans @ Cincinnati Bengals -7
Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati
Sunday 1 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Joe Burrow, C.J. Stroud, Joe Mixon, Ja'Marr Chase, Nico Collins, Tee Higgins, Tank Dell, Dalton Schultz
With Dameon Pierce sidelined in Week 9, Devin Singletary played on a season-high 74% of offensive snaps. The boost in playing time didn't lead to much, as he was held to a mere 26 yards on 15 touches. The Texans are dead last in RB fantasy points scored this season, so Singletary (who has no double-digit fantasy outings) will be no more than a low-ceiling, deep-league flex if Pierce remains out this week.
Noah Brown had a career day in Week 9, posting a 6-153-1 receiving line on six targets. The journeyman will sustain a role in the Houston passing game, but keep in mind that Robert Woods was sidelined last week. Houston figures to rotate Brown in with Woods, Dell and Collins when all four are healthy (not to mention heavily targeted TE Schultz). Of course, that's a long-term issue, as Woods is expected to miss Week 10. Assuming that's the case, Collins and Dell are lineup locks, whereas Brown is a flex option.
Over/Under: 50.6 (Highest)
Win Probability: Bengals 58% (8th highest)
San Francisco 49ers -3 @ Jacksonville Jaguars
EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville, Florida
Sunday 1 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Christian McCaffrey, Travis Etienne Jr., Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, Calvin Ridley, Christian Kirk, Evan Engram, George Kittle
This a game loaded with lineup locks, yet the two quarterbacks can best be described as fringe starters. Trevor Lawrence hasn't shown any upside (his best weekly finish is QB8), and he's unlikely to find it against a 49ers defense that has allowed the fifth-fewest QB fantasy points despite having faced the fourth-most passing attempts. Brock Purdy has shown a similar lack of upside (with only one finish better than QB9) and has been held to exactly one touchdown in three straight games.
Over/Under: 47.1 (4th highest)
Win Probability: Jaguars 50% (14th highest)
New Orleans Saints -2.5 @ Minnesota Vikings
U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis
Sunday 1 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Alvin Kamara, Alexander Mattison, Chris Olave, Jordan Addison, T.J. Hockenson
Taysom Hill has finally found himself in a role that could allow for consistent fantasy output. The utility man handled a career-high 42% of the Saints' designed running plays in Week 9 while also attempting a pass and seeing five targets. Hill now has nine-plus rushing attempts in two straight games and five-plus targets in three of his past four outings. He has ranked no worse than second in the NFL in expected TDs in each of the past three weeks and is up to second overall for the season. The usage has allowed him three consecutive efforts of 16-plus fantasy points. Hill should be considered as a back-end TE1 against the Vikings.
Over/Under: 38.7 (10th highest)
Win Probability: Saints 54% (10th highest)
Green Bay Packers @ Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5
Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh
Sunday 1 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Aaron Jones, Diontae Johnson
Najee Harris is trending up but remains a hit-or-miss fantasy start. Harris has produced 15-plus fantasy points in two of his past three games, but he has fallen short of 11.5 points in every other game and has no top-10 outings this season. Harris remains in a committee with Jaylen Warren, edging him in snap share (54%-45%) and carries (100-56), but trailing Warren in targets (35-21). Both Harris and Warren are flex options.
George Pickens has been trending down since the return of Johnson. Pickens averaged 7.8 targets and 103 air yards per game during Weeks 1-7 but has a total of just nine targets and 95 air yards during his past two games. Pickens has had a pair of games with 22-plus points this season, but he has otherwise been held in check (8.7 PPG in his six other games). He has fallen to boom/bust WR3 territory.
Over/Under: 37.8 (11th highest)
Win Probability: Steelers 59% (7th highest)
Tennessee Titans @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1
Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida
Sunday 1 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Derrick Henry, Rachaad White, DeAndre Hopkins, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin
Cade Otton put up a career-high 70 yards and found the end zone twice in Week 9. The big day came after Otton averaged just 6.8 fantasy PPG during his first seven games of 2023. Although this will likely be Otton's best game of the season, there's reason for some fantasy optimism here, as he has now seen six-plus targets in three straight games. Otton ranks sixth among tight ends in routes, and his increase in targets has him in the deep-league streaming discussion.
Over/Under: 45.3 (5th highest)
Win Probability: Buccaneers 51% (12th highest)
Atlanta Falcons -2 @ Arizona Cardinals
State Farm Stadium, Glendale, Arizona
Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Bijan Robinson, James Conner, Marquise Brown
Kyler Murray is back! The star quarterback missed Weeks 1-9 while rehabbing a torn ACL, but he'll be back under center against Atlanta this week. Murray, who remains available in 64% of ESPN leagues, has finished top 12 in fantasy PPG in all four of his NFL seasons. He was fifth during 10 full games last season (20.0 PPG) while producing 400-plus rushing yards for the fourth season in a row. It's possible (likely?) that Murray won't run quite as much out of the gate, which could limit his fantasy output, but he figures to rejoin the QB1 mix in about a week or two. Although the matchup is good (Atlanta has allowed the most QB fantasy points over expected), he's safest left on benches this week.
Jonnu Smith busted out with a 5-100-1 receiving line on seven targets in Week 9, but the big game was a clear outlier compared with the 8.2 fantasy PPG in his other games this season. Smith has flashed with a decent game here or there (now three outings with 13-plus points), but he also has busted quite a bit, going under 9.0 points in five games, including two of his past three. Smith remains no more than a good TE2.
Over/Under: 40.7 (7th highest)
Win Probability: Cardinals 51% (13th highest)
Detroit Lions -3 @ Los Angeles Chargers
SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, California
Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Justin Herbert, Austin Ekeler, David Montgomery, Jahmyr Gibbs, Keenan Allen, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta
With Joshua Palmer joining Mike Williams on IR, we got our first look at Quentin Johnston as the Chargers' clear No. 2 wide receiver Monday night. Granted the matchup was literally the toughest in the league, but it didn't go particularly well. Johnston played on 84% of snaps, but he was limited to three targets and a 2-14-0 receiving line. Johnston's playing time in a good offense is enough reason to keep him rostered, but he shouldn't be in lineups -- especially not this week against a Detroit defense that has allowed 7.2 yards per WR target (fifth lowest).
Over/Under: 48.2 (3rd highest)
Win Probability: Chargers 52% (11th highest)
New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys -16
AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas
Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Dak Prescott, Saquon Barkley, Tony Pollard, CeeDee Lamb
Jake Ferguson is doing his best Dalton Schultz impression. The second-year tight end sits ninth in TE fantasy PPG and has produced five top-12 fantasy weeks. That success includes two straight top 10s, both of which included trips to the end zone. Ferguson has a tough matchup this week as New York has allowed the third-fewest TE fantasy points. Still, he's coming off a career-high 10 targets and remains a fringe TE1 option.
Over/Under: 36 (12th highest)
Win Probability: Cowboys 85% (Highest)
Washington Commanders @ Seattle Seahawks -6.5
Lumen Field, Seattle
Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Sam Howell, Kenneth Walker III, DK Metcalf, Terry McLaurin, Tyler Lockett
Brian Robinson Jr. rebounded from a recent slump with 67 yards and one score on 19 touches against the Patriots last week. Robinson has now found the end zone in six out of nine games. That's the good. The bad is that Robinson was still held below 12.0 fantasy points, which marks his fifth game under 12 in his past seven outings. Robinson was fantasy's top-scoring RB in Week 2, but he has since failed to produce any finish better than 15th. Robinson has a solid floor, but a limited receiving role (two or fewer targets in four straight) keeps him no better than flex territory. That said, he has some slightly added appeal this week against a Seattle defense that has allowed nine RB rushing scores (third most).
Jahan Dotson has reeled off consecutive top-10 fantasy outings, but keep in mind that Curtis Samuel was out for most of Week 8 and all of Week 9. Dotson averaged 5.3 targets and 6.6 fantasy PPG during the seven games with Samuel as a "full go" and 9.0 targets and 20.9 PPG in the two outings with him injured. Needless to say, Dotson's Week 10 value will come down to Samuel's status. Consider Dotson a flex if Samuel returns but a WR3 with upside if he remains out.
Over/Under: 44.2 (6th highest)
Win Probability: Seahawks 64% (6th highest)
New York Jets -0.5 @ Las Vegas Raiders
Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas
Sunday 8:20 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Breece Hall, Josh Jacobs, Garrett Wilson, Davante Adams
In two Aidan O'Connell starts, Jakobi Meyers has totaled a 4-71-0 receiving line on nine targets. That's compared with an average line of 9.0 targets, 6.0 receptions, 61.8 yards and 0.8 TDs in his six other games. Meyers bailed us out with a rushing score in Week 9, but his 14% target share in the two O'Connell starts is a concern moving forward. Perhaps better days are ahead, but Meyers is a risky play this week against a Jets defense that has allowed the fewest WR fantasy points.
Over/Under: 30.3 (14th highest)
Win Probability: Raiders 56% (9th highest)
Denver Broncos @ Buffalo Bills -7.5
Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, New York
Monday 8:15 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Josh Allen, James Cook, Javonte Williams, Stefon Diggs, Courtland Sutton, Dalton Kincaid
I'm sticking with Cook as a lineup lock here because it's a great matchup, but I have some real concerns. The second-year back has been held under 9.0 fantasy points in four of his past five games, and his best weekly finish is RB8. Cook was limited to just six carries in Week 9 and now ranks 19th in RB carries and 21st in RB targets. He's been effective (eighth in yards despite sitting 17th in touches), but 14.4 touches per game and limited goal-line work (just two carries inside the 5-yard line) limit his upside. Still, Cook is a decent RB2 this week against a Denver defense that has allowed the most RB fantasy points.
And the 2023 fantasy football boom/bust award goes to ... Gabe Davis! His past five fantasy finishes are as follows: WR7, WR84, WR88, WR9 and WR108. That last disaster was a zero-catch showing on only three targets Sunday night. Davis has 20-plus points in three games, but fewer than 6.0 points in four games (including three of his past four starts). Davis' upside keeps him in the WR3/flex discussion, but he's obviously very risky.
Over/Under: 49.7 (2nd highest)
Win Probability: Bills 82% (2nd highest)