Week 9's weekend action is right around the corner, and the betting market is loaded with player props. That's why we're bringing you the NFL betting playbook, highlighting some of the top options for each game.
Now, you might already be familiar with my weekly playbook for fantasy football, which features score projections, over/unders, win probabilities and easily digestible fantasy advice for season-long and DFS leagues. Similarly, my weekly betting playbook features several data points for each of this weekend's scheduled games, along with my analysis of a few notable lines I'm interested in betting, although this article is designed in a way that allows you to pick your own favorites.
Note: Odds by ESPN BET and correct as of time of publication.
Miami Dolphins @ Kansas City Chiefs -2
Frankfurt Stadium, Frankfurt, Germany
Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET
Money Line: Miami Dolphins (+100) ; Kansas City Chiefs (-120)
Total: 50.5; Opened: 46.5
FPI favorite: Chiefs by 1.5 (54.5% to win outright)
Projected Score: Dolphins 28, Chiefs 24
Drue Tranquill over 6.5 total tackles (-135): Tranquill has played on at least 80% of the Chiefs' defensive snaps in four games this season. The veteran linebacker has had at least eight total tackles in each of those games, averaging 9.0 per outing. Not coincidentally, Tranquill's four games over 80% of snaps came during the four games Nick Bolton was sidelined by injury, and Bolton remains on IR for this week's game against Miami. This is an easy call for the over.
Over/Under: 51.7 (2nd highest)
Win Probability: Dolphins 64% (4th highest)
Minnesota Vikings @ Atlanta Falcons -4
Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Money Line: Minnesota Vikings (+175) ; Atlanta Falcons (-210)
Total: 37.5; Opened: 37
FPI favorite: Vikings by 3.3 (59.7% to win outright)
Line movement alert: Opened Falcons -1
Projected Score: Falcons 18, Vikings 16
Harrison Smith over 3.5 solo tackles (+140) and over 5.5 total tackles (+108): I like both of these, so pick your poison. Smith has cleared 3.5 solos in four out of eight games and 5.5 total tackles in five out of eight games this season. He was over both lines in nine out of 15 games in 2022, bringing him to a 57% over rate on solos and 61% on total tackles since the start of last season. Smith has played on 99% of the Vikings' defensive snaps and is averaging 4.3 solo and 6.9 total tackles for the season.
Over/Under: 34.6 (13th highest)
Win Probability: Falcons 58% (10th highest)
Arizona Cardinals @ Cleveland Browns -8
Cleveland Browns Stadium, Cleveland
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Money Line: Arizona Cardinals (+300) ; Cleveland Browns (-380)
Total: 37.5; Opened: 37.5
FPI favorite: Browns by 10.2 (77.6% to win outright)
Projected Score: Browns 20, Cardinals 16
Over/Under: 36.6 (12th highest)
Win Probability: Browns 64% (6th highest)
There are currently no props on the board for this game, presumably because of the lack of clarity involving the QB situation in Arizona. We will update things once the situation resolves itself and props become available.
Los Angeles Rams @ Green Bay Packers -3
Lambeau Field, Green Bay, Wisconsin
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Money Line: Los Angeles Rams (+140) ; Green Bay Packers (-165)
Total: 38.5; Opened: 38.5
FPI favorite: Rams by 1.9 (55.6% to win outright)
Line movement alert: Opened Rams -1
Projected Score: Rams 23, Packers 20
De'Vondre Campbell over 4.5 solo tackles (+105): Campbell has battled injuries this season, but the veteran linebacker has remained a tackle machine. He had four solos (76% snap share) in Week 1, seven in Week 2 (83%) and 10 (94%) upon his return from injury in Week 8. Campbell was a near every-down player for Green Bay during the 2021 and 2022 seasons and averaged 5.6 solos per game. He had at least five solos in 20 out of 29 (69%) outings during that span. Now healthy, Campbell figures to remain a full-time player against the Rams this week.
Over/Under: 43.6 (5th highest)
Win Probability: Rams 61% (7th highest)
Washington Commanders @ New England Patriots -3
Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Money Line: Washington Commanders (+140) ; New England Patriots (-165)
Total: 40.5; Opened: NL
FPI favorite: Patriots by 2.3 (56.9% to win outright)
Projected Score: Patriots 20, Commanders 18
Mac Jones over 1.5 pass TDs (+152): Jones has tossed at least two touchdowns in three out of eight games, including both of the past two weeks. Generally, we'd still avoid this "over" as he has rarely hit the mark throughout his career, but the great matchup, coupled with strong vig, makes this appealing. Washington has allowed a league-high 18 passing scores in eight games this season. Seven out of eight opposing quarterbacks reached two passing scores against them, the only exception being Josh Allen in a game in which Buffalo scored twice on the ground and once via a defensive touchdown in a 37-3 blowout. As if that's not enough incentive, this will be Washington's first game without star edge rusher duo Montez Sweat and Chase Young, with both traded away Tuesday.
Over/Under: 38.7 (11th highest)
Win Probability: Patriots 57% (12th highest)
Chicago Bears @ New Orleans Saints -8.5
Caesars Superdome, New Orleans
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Money Line: Chicago Bears (+300) ; New Orleans Saints (-380)
Total: 41.5; Opened: 40.5
FPI favorite: Saints by 4 (61.7% to win outright)
Line movement alert: Opened Saints -5.5
Projected Score: Saints 23, Bears 17
Demario Davis under 3.5 assists (-110): Davis has reached four assists in only one of his eight games this season. He has played on 95% of defensive snaps and is averaging 2.75 assists per outing. Davis played on 99.8% of the Saints' defensive snaps in 2022 and averaged 3.2 assists per game, falling short of four in nine out of 17 games. The under is the play against a Bears team that has allowed the sixth-fewest LB tackles this season.
Over/Under: 39.7 (10th highest)
Win Probability: Saints 72% (Highest)
Seattle Seahawks @ Baltimore Ravens -6
M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Money Line: Seattle Seahawks (+210) ; Baltimore Ravens (-250)
Total: 44.5; Opened: 42.5
FPI favorite: Ravens by 7.1 (70.1% to win outright)
Projected Score: Ravens 24, Seahawks 20
Jason Myers over 5.5 kicking points (-114): Myers has cleared this mark in every game this season, averaging 8.3 during the seven outings (6.8 if we exclude a 17-point outlier in Week 3). The veteran kicker has done so despite struggling on field goals (14-of-18), although he has yet to miss an extra point (16-of-16). Myers was one of the league's most accurate kickers last season (92.1%), so it's reasonable to expect his efficiency to improve. Seattle has a tough matchup against Baltimore this week, but Myers' 100% hit rate, as well as a leaguewide 75% "over" rate on 5.5 kicking point props, suggests we lean over.
Over/Under: 44.2 (4th highest)
Win Probability: Ravens 65% (3rd highest)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Houston Texans -3
NRG Stadium, Houston
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Money Line: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+125) ; Houston Texans (-145)
Total: 39.5; Opened: 38.5
FPI favorite: Texans by 0.5 (51.6% to win outright)
Projected Score: Texans 23, Buccaneers 20
Rachaad White under 50.5 rushing yards (-127): White is averaging 43.6 rushing yards per game and has reached 51 yards only twice. The Texans have been stout against the run, allowing 3.4 yards per carry (fourth lowest), which actually aligns pretty well with White's poor 3.3 YPC. Only four backs have reached 51 rushing yards against Houston -- and that foursome required an average of 17.5 carries. White hasn't eclipsed 17 carries in any game this season and has been at or below 13 in three straight contests.
Over/Under: 42.7 (7th highest)
Win Probability: Texans 60% (9th highest)
Indianapolis Colts -2.5 @ Carolina Panthers
Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, North Carolina
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET
Money Line: Indianapolis Colts (-145) ; Carolina Panthers (+125)
Total: 43.5; Opened: 42.5
FPI favorite: Colts by 4 (61.7% to win outright)
Projected Score: Colts 24, Panthers 19
Jonathan Taylor anytime TD (+100): The Panthers have struggled mightily against running backs, having allowed the second-most yards (1,092), the most touchdowns (14) and the second-highest yards per carry (5.0) to the position. Carolina has allowed at least one RB touchdown in six out of seven games -- and the exception was a Minnesota team that didn't record its first rushing score until Week 8. Taylor has scored only once in the four games since his return, but he's been a little unlucky (1.9 expected TDs) and he has outsnapped, out-touched and outperformed Zack Moss.
Over/Under: 42.9 (6th highest)
Win Probability: Colts 68% (2nd highest)
New York Giants @ Las Vegas Raiders -2
Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
Money Line: New York Giants (+105) ; Las Vegas Raiders (-125)
Total: 37.5; Opened: NL
FPI favorite: Raiders by 2 (55.9% to win outright)
Projected Score: Raiders 16, Giants 15
Josh Jacobs under 73.5 rushing yards (-118): My projection lands in this range, but we're going with the gamesmanship "under" play here. Jacobs has fallen short of 74 yards in seven out of eight games, and he has fallen short of his rushing yardage prop in six out of the seven weeks it's been posted -- including all five times the line was over 70 yards. Furthermore, there have been 30 props of at least 70 rushing yards across the league this season and 22 (73%) have gone under. This is a good matchup as the Giants have allowed the fifth-most RB rushing yards and fourth-highest RB yards per carry (4.7). Still, even their struggling defense has allowed "only" four backs to reach 74 rushing yards through eight games.
Aidan O'Connell over 0.5 INTs (-135): O'Connell will replace Jimmy Garoppolo as the Raiders quarterback this week. The fourth-round rookie tossed one INT in his lone start in Week 4 and threw one in relief of Brian Hoyer in Week 7. This will come as no surprise, but rookie quarterbacks, especially those who were Day 3 picks or undrafted, throw picks at a higher rate than veterans. The Giants, meanwhile, have had four interceptions in their past four games.
Over/Under: 30.8 (14th highest)
Win Probability: Raiders 51% (14th highest)
Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles -3
Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
Money Line: Dallas Cowboys (+135) ; Philadelphia Eagles (-155)
Total: 46.5; Opened: 46
FPI favorite: Eagles by 0.6 (51.8% to win outright)
Projected Score: Eagles 24, Cowboys 22
Tony Pollard under 14.5 rushing attempts (-137): If Pollard hits this over, it will be the first time a player carried the ball at least 15 times against the Eagles in a game this season. The eight opposing lead backs the Eagles have faced averaged 11.5 carries per game -- and those attempts weren't particularly effective, as none of them reached 60 yards. Philadelphia has faced a league-low 117 carries, has allowed a league-low 416 rushing yards and has surrendered 3.6 yards per carry (seventh lowest) to running backs this season. Pollard has reached 15 carries in three out of seven games and hasn't been above 15 since Week 3.
Over/Under: 46.1 (3rd highest)
Win Probability: Eagles 58% (11th highest)
Buffalo Bills @ Cincinnati Bengals -2
Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET
Money Line: Buffalo Bills (+105) ; Cincinnati Bengals (-125)
Total: 49.5; Opened: 46
FPI favorite: Bills by 7.5 (71% to win outright)
Line movement alert: Opened Bills -1
Projected Score: Bills 27, Bengals 25
Dax Hill over 3.5 solo tackles (-145): Hill has emerged into an every-down player in his second NFL season, having been on the field for 435 of the Bengals' 439 defensive snaps. The 2022 first-round pick has produced at least four solos in five out of seven games, averaging 4.9 per game along the way. Hill played an every-down role in only one game as a rookie but produced five solos in that Week 15 outing.
Over/Under: 51.8 (Highest)
Win Probability: Bills 56% (13th highest)
Los Angeles Chargers -3.5 @ New York Jets
MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET
Money Line: Los Angeles Chargers (-175) ; New York Jets (+150)
Total: 40.5; Opened: 40
FPI favorite: Chargers by 2.5 (57.2% to win outright)
Line movement alert: Opened Chargers -1.5
Projected Score: Chargers 23, Jets 19
Zach Wilson over 216.5 passing yards (-118): Wilson has been over this line only twice this season, but both of those outings have come in his past four games (and he was within 31 yards of this line in the two others). In a neutral matchup, we'd be leaning under here, but this is no normal game. The Chargers are allowing a league-high 320.7 passing yards per game and have also surrendered a league-worst 8.4 YPA. Every quarterback they've faced has reached 232 passing yards -- including Tyson Bagent (232) last week and Aidan O'Connell (238) in Week 4.
Over/Under: 42.2 (8th highest)
Win Probability: Chargers 64% (5th highest)