Welcome to the Week 9 Fantasy Football Playbook, which kicks off Thursday night with the Titans at the Steelers.
This column features score projections, over/unders, win probabilities and, of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for season-long and DFS leagues. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision-making, including sit/start decisions, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices.
The advice is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with relatively standard scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 Flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST), although I'll often mention "shallow" or "deep" leagues for some starters. The charts show all players who have been projected for at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/STs. "Matchup" is automatically determined using a proprietary metric that factors in raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed to each position by the opposing defense this season.
(Editor's note: Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player might be ranked slightly higher or lower because of other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to possible updates during the weekend, although at the very minimum, rankings will be updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff. Odds by ESPN BET.)
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Miami Dolphins @ Kansas City Chiefs -1.5
Frankfurt Stadium, Frankfurt, Germany
Sunday 9:30 a.m. ET
Lineup locks: Patrick Mahomes, Tua Tagovailoa, Raheem Mostert, Isiah Pacheco, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Travis Kelce
With Justin Watson back from injury in Week 8, the Chiefs' WR usage was as follows: Rashee Rice (25 routes, 5 targets), Marquez Valdes-Scantling (24, 4), Skyy Moore (20, 3), Watson (18, 3), Mecole Hardman Jr. (14, 2), Kadarius Toney (8, 1). The game marked Rice's first time leading the room in routes and he remains the only Chiefs receiver worth considering for your flex spot. The rookie has had at least four catches in four straight games and either 56-plus yards or a score in each of those outings.
Over/Under: 51.7 (2nd highest)
Win Probability: Dolphins 64% (4th highest)
Minnesota Vikings @ Atlanta Falcons -4.5
Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta
Sunday 1 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Bijan Robinson, Jordan Addison, T.J. Hockenson
Kirk Cousins (Achilles) is done for the season, leaving Minnesota with major uncertainty at quarterback. Fifth-round rookie Jaren Hall is expected to get the nod this week, with the newly acquired Joshua Dobbs to be the answer from Week 10 forward. Hall attempted four passes in place of Cousins on Sunday, with two going to Hockenson and the other two to K.J. Osborn. This is a great matchup, so perhaps there's hope for the Minnesota offense, but Hockenson and Addison (who has seven scores in eight games, but was bumped down the ranks with Cousins out) are the only Vikings pass-catchers who should be in lineups.
Alexander Mattison outsnapped (43-15), outcarried (16-9) and outtargeted (3-2) Cam Akers in Week 8, but he was still limited to his fifth straight game below 13 fantasy points. Mattison has only two touchdowns on the season -- both receiving -- and, even so, has seen his receiving role diminish with three-or-fewer targets in four of his past five games. Mattison has a very tough matchup against a Falcons defense that has allowed the third-fewest RB fantasy points and no RB rushing scores. No back has reached 17 fantasy points in a game against Atlanta. As such, Mattison is no more than a flex.
Over/Under: 34.6 (13th highest)
Win Probability: Falcons 58% (10th highest)
Seattle Seahawks @ Baltimore Ravens -6
M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore
Sunday 1 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Lamar Jackson, Kenneth Walker III, Gus Edwards, DK Metcalf, Zay Flowers, Tyler Lockett, Mark Andrews
Edwards' two-game heater is enough to make him a lineup lock, but "buyer beware" on this one. During Weeks 2-6, the veteran back played on 52% of Baltimore's snaps and produced one touchdown while averaging 7.1 fantasy PPG. During Weeks 7-8, he played on 54% of snaps (a negligible increase) and scored four times while averaging 25.4 fantasy PPG. Edwards has been limited to seven targets in eight games and remains extremely dependent on big rushing volume and touchdowns. Consider him as a fringe RB2 against a Seattle defense that has allowed a league-low 2.9 RB yards per carry.
Geno Smith has delivered one weekly fantasy finish better than 17th -- and that was a QB7 back in Week 2. Even with the messy QB situation across the league and four teams on a bye, Smith is not a streaming option against a Baltimore defense that has allowed just six passing scores (second fewest) and the fewest QB fantasy points, despite facing the fourth-most passing attempts.
Over/Under: 44.2 (4th highest)
Win Probability: Ravens 65% (3rd highest)
Arizona Cardinals @ Cleveland Browns -8
Cleveland Browns Stadium, Cleveland
Sunday 1 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Marquise Brown, Amari Cooper, David Njoku
Jerome Ford wasn't fully healthy coming into Week 8 -- and it showed in the team's RB usage. Ford (23 snaps, 9 carries, 2 targets) played less than usual, with Kareem Hunt (27 snaps, 14 carries, 1 target) and Pierre Strong Jr. (24 snaps, 10 carries, 1 target) plenty involved. Ford had produced 90-plus yards in his prior two games and, even after Sunday, is averaging 14.6 touches per game this season. He remains the slightly preferred RB2/flex over Hunt, though both will benefit from a great matchup against an Arizona defense that got sliced up by Gus Edwards last week and has now surrendered the third-most RB fantasy points and second-most RB scores (12) this season.
In Arizona's first game with Zach Ertz on IR, Trey McBride emerged with a 10-95-1 receiving line on 14 targets (all career highs). McBride played on 83% of snaps, which was his highest rate since Week 17 of last season. McBride was a second-round pick last season, so a Year 2 breakout wouldn't be a surprise, but it remains to be seen if he'll be targeted as often by Clayton Tune (and Kyler Murray) as he (and Ertz) were by Dobbs. Consider McBride to be a fringe top-10 play against a Cleveland defense that has allowed the fewest TE fantasy points and yards. George Kittle scored 25 fantasy points (80 yards, 2 TDs) against the Browns in Week 4 but all other tight ends have combined for just 16 fantasy points (53 yards, 0 TDs) against them.
Over/Under: 36.6 (12th highest)
Win Probability: Browns 64% (6th highest)
Los Angeles Rams @ Green Bay Packers -3
Lambeau Field, Green Bay, Wisconsin
Sunday 1 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Aaron Jones, Darrell Henderson Jr., Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua
If Matthew Stafford (hand) is out this week, Brett Rypien will be the next man up. The journeyman attempted 10 passes in place of Stafford on Sunday, five of which were directed at Kupp (one completion). Rypien has attempted 130 passes in his career and has accrued 820 yards (5.9 YPC), four touchdowns and eight interceptions. If Rypien starts, Kupp (34% target share this season) and Nacua (32%) are the only Rams pass-catchers who should be near lineups.
Christian Watson matched a career high with eight targets in Week 8, but Jordan Love's struggles limited the second-year receiver to a 3-33-0 receiving line. Watson has now been held below 35 yards in three of his four games and has yet to clear 11.6 fantasy points in any single outing. Watson is tied for the league lead with six end zone targets since his Week 4 return (and that includes his bye week), so perhaps better days are ahead. Still, he can't be trusted as anything more than a WR3 against the Rams.
Over/Under: 43.6 (5th highest)
Win Probability: Rams 61% (7th highest)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Houston Texans -3
NRG Stadium, Houston
Sunday 1 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Rachaad White, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Nico Collins
Week 8 appeared to confirm that the Texans are sticking with a backfield committee, with Dameon Pierce (24 snaps) and Devin Singletary (22) as the lead singers and Mike Boone (9) on drums. Pierce outcarried Singletary 12-10 on Sunday, but he was held without a single target for the second game in a row. In fact, Pierce has yet to clear three targets in any game this season and has only one touchdown to his name. Singletary has no trips to the end zone and has yet to eclipse 13 touches or 8.8 fantasy points in any game. Neither back is a recommended RB2 against a Tampa Bay defense that has allowed a league-low single RB score this season.
Over/Under: 42.7 (7th highest)
Win Probability: Texans 60% (9th highest)
Washington Commanders @ New England Patriots -3.5
Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts
Sunday 1 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Rhamondre Stevenson, Terry McLaurin
Sam Howell is up to QB8 in fantasy points this season after pacing the position with 31.0 in Week 8. Howell has produced 18-plus fantasy points five times this season primarily due to heavy passing volume. The second-year passer ranks second in the league in passing attempts and fifth in passing yardage. Howell is a solid streamer this week against New England.
Jahan Dotson broke out with an 8-108-1 receiving line on 10 targets against the Eagles on Sunday. It was Dotson's first top-25 fantasy outing of the season. The 2022 first-round pick benefited from Curtis Samuel leaving the game after 13 snaps, though it's still noteworthy that he has now seen 18 targets in his last two games. Dotson's slow start means he should be considered only for your WR3 slot if Samuel is sidelined.
Kendrick Bourne (ACL) is done for the season, which could set up Demario Douglas to lead the Patriots in targets moving forward. Since returning to the lineup in Week 7, he's played on 71% of snaps and handled a solid 21% target share (6.0 per game). That's yet to allow much fantasy output, though he impressed with 74 yards on five touches in Week 7. Douglas is the top fantasy WR option in New England (especially with DeVante Parker likely to be out this week) and is on the flex radar against a Washington defense that has allowed the second-most WR yards and fantasy points, as well as the most WR scores (13) and the highest yards per target (10.7).
Over/Under: 38.7 (11th highest)
Win Probability: Patriots 57% (12th highest)
Chicago Bears @ New Orleans Saints -8.5
Caesars Superdome, New Orleans
Sunday 1 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave, DJ Moore
Roschon Johnson (concussion) returned last week and, despite not playing for most of the first quarter, ended up leading the Chicago backfield with 23 snaps (37%), handling five carries and four targets in the game. D'Onta Foreman led the team with nine carries and had a pair of targets on 19 snaps. Darrynton Evans handled four carries and four targets on 17 snaps. Johnson is the most dynamic back in the group and figures to handle a larger role (at Evans' expense) against New Orleans. Of course, this is a tough matchup against a Saints defense that has allowed the fourth-fewest RB fantasy points. Only Travis Etienne Jr. has reached 15 fantasy points against them. Johnson is no more than a flex.
Rashid Shaheed surprised with a career high 153 yards last week, but note that he was targeted only three times and had never previously reached 100 yards in a game. Shaheed played on a season-low 27% of snaps, with Lynn Bowden Jr. (36%) playing a larger role. Shaheed remains an extremely boom/bust flex lottery ticket. He has three 18-plus point games, but also four single-digit outings this season.
Taysom Hill put up 22.5 fantasy points in Week 8 thanks to two touchdowns. Hill has produced three straight top-six fantasy outings, but note that he was held under 10 points in each of the first five weeks with zero top-15 performances. In fact, the 22.5 points was Hill's first game with 17-plus since Week 5 of 2022 and, prior to Sunday, he had averaged 7.1 PPG in the 19 games since then. Hill will continue to see a handful of touches each week, but he'll have way more duds than he will fantasy-relevant games.
Over/Under: 39.7 (10th highest)
Win Probability: Saints 72% (Highest)
Indianapolis Colts -2.5 @ Carolina Panthers
Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, North Carolina
Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Jonathan Taylor, Zack Moss, Adam Thielen, Michael Pittman Jr.
Carolina appears to have a new lead back in Chuba Hubbard. The veteran played on 40 snaps (66%) in Week 8, compared to only 12 (20%) for Miles Sanders and nine (15%) for Raheem Blackshear. Hubbard dominated the carries (15, compared to three for Blackshear and two for Sanders) and matched Blackshear with two targets (Sanders had none). It's likely that Sanders gets more work moving forward -- he did receive a hefty offseason payday, after all -- but Hubbard remains the better fantasy play for now. He's best valued as a flex against a Colts defense that has allowed the fifth-most RB fantasy points and the second-most touchdowns (12) this season.
Over/Under: 42.9 (6th highest)
Win Probability: Colts 68% (2nd highest)
New York Giants @ Las Vegas Raiders -1.5
Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas
Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs, Davante Adams
Darren Waller (hamstring) left Sunday's loss after just 17 snaps and is expected to miss Week 9 (and perhaps additional action). With Waller sidelined, Daniel Bellinger is the next man up. Bellinger played on 89% of snaps -- his highest rate since Week 17 of last season -- in place of Waller last week. The second-year tight end has never cleared five targets or 42 yards in a game, so he won't be a fantasy option, regardless of Waller's status. New York's wide receivers will see a boost in targets, but the likes of Wan'Dale Robinson, Darius Slayton and Jalin Hyatt simply can't be trusted in an offense that ranks dead last in touchdowns.
Over/Under: 30.8 (14th highest)
Win Probability: Raiders 51% (14th highest)
Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles -3
Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia
Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Jalen Hurts, Dak Prescott, Tony Pollard, D'Andre Swift, A.J. Brown, CeeDee Lamb, DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert
Prescott qualifies as a lineup lock this week after consecutive strong outings, as well as a career of big games against the Eagles. Prescott hadn't even had any top-15 fantasy weeks this season before having two top-five outings in his past two games. Granted, a lot of the damage was done in Dallas, but Prescott is averaging 19.7 fantasy PPG in 10 career full games against Philadelphia, including 20-plus points in six of their past seven meetings. The Eagles face a ton of passing volume and have allowed the fifth-most QB fantasy points.
Over/Under: 46.1 (3rd highest)
Win Probability: Eagles 58% (11th highest)
Buffalo Bills @ Cincinnati Bengals -2.5
Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati
Sunday 8:20 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, Joe Mixon, James Cook, Stefon Diggs, Ja'Marr Chase, Dalton Kincaid
Gabe Davis is on the upswing after a 9-87-1 receiving line on 12 targets in Week 8, though he has proved extremely boom/bust this season with three 21-plus point games and three under six points. That includes 3-21-0 and 1-6-0 receiving lines in Weeks 6 and 7, respectively. Consider him in the WR3 discussion
Tee Higgins has generally been a lineup lock, but his 11.9 fantasy points in Week 8 was his second-highest total of the season. Higgins ran routes on 69% of the Bengals' passing plays, which was a step forward from prior weeks -- but not quite the every-down role we're used to seeing. He still managed a serviceable 5-69-0 receiving line, however, which also puts him in the WR3 discussion.
Kincaid is a lineup lock this week after an impressive breakout with Dawson Knox sidelined. The rookie played on a career-high 84% of snaps and delivered a 5-65-1 line on seven targets. Kincaid has now managed 7-plus targets, 65-plus yards and 15-plus fantasy points in consecutive games. Kincaid figures to settle in at third (or perhaps even second) in target priority in one of the league's best and pass-heaviest offenses, at least until Knox returns. The rookie is now a midrange TE1, especially this week against a Bengals defense that has allowed the most TE fantasy points this season.
Over/Under: 51.8 (Highest)
Win Probability: Bills 56% (13th highest)
Los Angeles Chargers -3.5 @ New York Jets
MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey
Monday 8:15 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Justin Herbert, Austin Ekeler, Breece Hall, Keenan Allen, Garrett Wilson
With Gerald Everett out last week, Donald Parham Jr. ran routes on 46% of the Chargers' passing plays. That's the third-highest rate of his career and his highest since Week 17 of the 2020 season. Parham delivered a solid 4-43-1 receiving line and his five targets matched a career high. Parham is a TD machine, having scored on 11 out of his 53 career receptions. Despite checking in at No. 31 with 19 TE targets this season, he's first in end zone targets (6), third in expected TDs (3.5) and second in actual TDs (4). Parham will be a fringe TE1 if Everett remains out this week.
Over/Under: 42.2 (8th highest)
Win Probability: Chargers 64% (5th highest)