Week 8's weekend action is right around the corner, and the betting market is loaded with player props. That's why we're bringing you the NFL betting playbook, highlighting some of the top options for each game.
Now, you might already be familiar with my weekly playbook for fantasy football, which features score projections, over/unders, win probabilities and easily digestible fantasy advice for season-long and DFS leagues. Similarly, my weekly betting playbook features several data points for each of this weekend's scheduled games, along with my analysis of a few notable lines I'm interested in betting, though this article is designed in a way that allows you to pick your own favorites.
Note: All lines are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook and were correct as of time of publication.
Los Angeles Rams @ Dallas Cowboys -6
AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas
Sunday 1:00 p.m. ET
Money Line: Los Angeles Rams (+222); Dallas Cowboys (-278)
Total: 45.5; Opened: 44.5
FPI favorite: Cowboys by 6.4 (68.2% to win outright)
Projected Score: Cowboys 22, Rams 22
Matthew Stafford under 1.5 pass TDs (-147): Stafford has fallen short of two passing scores in 13 of his past 16 games tracing back to the start of 2022. That includes six out of seven games in 2023. The Cowboys, meanwhile, have the third-best defensive EPA this season. Four out of the eight passing scores they've allowed came in one game (Brock Purdy in Week 5) and they've otherwise allowed more than one TD pass in a game just once (Justin Herbert threw two in Week 6). The Rams' expected pass-TD rate, based on playcalling, sits at 56% (seventh lowest) and we should expect Sean McVay to continue his run-heavy approach near the goal line.
Over/Under: 44 (7th highest)
Win Probability: Cowboys 52% (16th highest)
Minnesota Vikings -1.5 @ Green Bay Packers
Lambeau Field, Green Bay, Wisconsin
Sunday 1:00 p.m. ET
Money Line: Minnesota Vikings (-125); Green Bay Packers (+105)
Total: 42; Opened: 42
FPI favorite: Vikings by 1.7 (55% to win outright)
Line Movement Alert: Opened Packers -1
Projected Score: Vikings 22, Packers 20
Alexander Mattison under 45.5 rush yds (-118): Mattison has reached this line only twice this season (Weeks 3 and 4) and has averaged just 34.2 yards in his other five outings. That already points to the under, but it also seems like his role is being reduced. In Week 7, Mattison handled the Vikings' first five RB carries, but then Cam Akers handled 10 out of the final 13. This is a good matchup, as Green Bay has allowed the sixth-most RB rushing yards. However, all five backs who reached 46 rushing yards against the Packers did so on 15-plus carries (and, as noted, Mattison had only eight carries last week). Mattison's uncertain role points to the under.
Over/Under: 41.9 (11th highest)
Win Probability: Vikings 58% (13th highest)
Atlanta Falcons -2.5 @ Tennessee Titans
Nissan Stadium, Nashville, Tennessee
Sunday 1:00 p.m. ET
Money Line: Atlanta Falcons (-145) ; Tennessee Titans (+122)
Total: 35; Opened: 35
FPI favorite: Titans by 1.5 (54.5% to win outright)
Line Movement Alert: Opened Titans -1
Projected Score: Falcons 19, Titans 17
Desmond Ridder under 1.5 pass TDs (-204): The juice is ugly here, but I like it down to -239. Ridder has reached two passing scores in only two out of his 11 career games. That includes once out of seven games in 2023, in a 2-TD effort in a comeback try against Washington in Week 6. Atlanta is currently operating the league's game script adjusted run-heaviest offense. The Titans, meanwhile, have allowed only six passing scores in as many games this season (and one total during their past three games). The Titans held Derek Carr, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow and Anthony Richardson/Gardner Minshew all below two TD passes, whereas Justin Herbert and Deshaun Watson just made the cut with two apiece.
Over/Under: 35.5 (15th highest)
Win Probability: Falcons 58% (14th highest)
New Orleans Saints -1 @ Indianapolis Colts
Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis
Sunday 1:00 p.m. ET
Money Line: New Orleans Saints (-115); Indianapolis Colts (-105)
Total: 43.5; Opened: 40
FPI favorite: Saints by 2.1 (56.2% to win outright)
Line Movement Alert: Opened Colts -1
Projected Score: Colts 22, Saints 19
Derek Carr over 32.5 pass attempts (-128): We're going back to the well here after Carr easily cleared his pass attempt prop with 55 throws against the Jaguars last week. Carr is now averaging 36.4 pass attempts per game and has reached 33 in five out of seven games. The two exceptions were a 34-0 win over New England (26 attempts) and a Week 3 game against Green Bay in which he left injured around midway through the contest. The Colts have faced at least 31 passing attempts in all seven games (35.9 average), including 33-plus in four games. Indianapolis operates a fast-paced offense, which has led to a boost in snaps for the opponent (69.4 per game, highest in the NFL).
Over/Under: 40.8 (12th highest)
Win Probability: Colts 61% (12th highest)
New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins -9.5
Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida
Sunday 1:00 p.m. ET
Money Line: New England Patriots (+345); Miami Dolphins (-455)
Total: 46.5; Opened: 46
FPI favorite: Dolphins by 13.1 (83.3% to win outright)
Projected Score: Dolphins 29, Patriots 17
Mac Jones under 1.5 pass TDs (-204): Jones threw three TD passes against Philadelphia in Week 1 and two against the Bills last week, but he otherwise has been held to a total of two passing scores in the other five games. That includes a 1-TD effort on 42 passing attempts against Miami in Week 2. Even after a step forward last week, the Patriots rank only 30th in offensive EPA. Miami has held five out of seven opponents below two passing scores, with the exceptions being road games at the Bills (4) and Eagles (2).
Over/Under: 46.4 (4th highest)
Win Probability: Dolphins 87% (Highest)
New York Jets -3 @ New York Giants
MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey
Sunday 1:00 p.m. ET
Money Line: New York Jets (-155); New York Giants (+130)
Total: 36.5; Opened: 36
FPI favorite: Jets by 5.6 (66.1% to win outright)
Projected Score: Jets 17, Giants 16
Allen Lazard under 2.5 receptions (+112): I project this one very close to the line, but the plus money vig makes it worth a look. Lazard has played on most of the Jets' offensive snaps but is handling only 3.8 targets per game. He's yet to clear five targets in any game and has fallen short of three catches in half of his six outings. The Giants have good perimeter talent in Deonte Banks and Adoree' Jackson, though this bet will be less appealing if Jackson (neck) remains sidelined.
Over/Under: 32.4 (16th highest)
Win Probability: Jets 54% (15th highest)
Jacksonville Jaguars -2.5 @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh
Sunday 1:00 p.m. ET
Money Line: Jacksonville Jaguars (-150); Pittsburgh Steelers (+126)
Total: 41; Opened: 40.5
FPI favorite: Jaguars by 3.9 (61.4% to win outright)
Projected Score: Jaguars 23, Steelers 18
Travon Walker over 0.25 sacks (+200): Walker has 2.5 sacks this season and his pass-rush win rate has improved drastically from 2022 (10.2%) to 2023 (18.3%). Additionally, his 20.8% pass-rush win rate versus double-teams this season is fifth highest among qualifying players. The 2022 first-overall pick rarely leaves the field, having played on 81% of the Jaguars' defensive snaps. Kenny Pickett has been sacked 16 times on 204 dropbacks. His 7.8% sack rate is up from 2022 and is seventh highest among 31 qualified quarterbacks.
Over/Under: 40.3 (13th highest)
Win Probability: Jaguars 69% (10th highest)
Philadelphia Eagles -7 @ Washington Commanders
FedExField, Landover, Maryland
Sunday 1:00 p.m. ET
Money Line: Philadelphia Eagles (-335); Washington Commanders (+260)
Total: 43.5; Opened: NL
FPI favorite: Eagles by 7.7 (71.5% to win outright)
Projected Score: Eagles 27, Commanders 18
Terry McLaurin over 58.5 receiving yards (-118): McLaurin has cleared this mark in three out of his past four games, most notably an 86-yard effort against these same Eagles in Week 4. McLaurin has had Philadelphia's number throughout his career, averaging 87.1 yards in nine games. He has reached 59 yards in seven of those outings. No team has faced more WR targets than the Eagles (183) this season, who have allowed 10 different wideouts to reach 59 yards.
Logan Thomas anytime TD (+390): Thomas has scored in two out of six games this season and his three end zone targets are already more than the two he saw over 14 games last season. Thomas has been a favorite target of Sam Howell, ranking 13th in TE targets as well as ninth in expected TDs (2.0). Philadelphia has allowed three TE scores this season (sixth most), as well as an 8.2 yards per target (sixth highest) and 80% catch rate (fifth highest).
Over/Under: 45.4 (6th highest)
Win Probability: Eagles 78% (6th highest)
Houston Texans -3 @ Carolina Panthers
Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, North Carolina
Sunday 1:00 p.m. ET
Money Line: Houston Texans (-178); Carolina Panthers (+150)
Total: 43.5; Opened: 41.5
FPI favorite: Texans by 4.1 (61.9% to win outright)
Projected Score: Texans 24, Panthers 18
Dalton Schultz anytime TD (+285): We're getting pretty sweet juice on this one considering that Schultz has found the end zone in three consecutive games. The veteran tight end has been targeted at least seven times in three games this season, including both of his past two outings. Carolina has allowed the sixth-most passing touchdowns this season (10), as well as the fourth-highest yards per TE target (8.7).
C.J. Stroud over 1.5 pass TDs (+102): This is an extension of the Schultz prop, considering Carolina's defensive struggles. Stroud has reached two passing scores in four out of six games, including four out of his past five, whereas Carolina has allowed at least two passing scores three times this season. The Panthers also have the league's fourth-worst defensive EPA.
Over/Under: 42.2 (10th highest)
Win Probability: Texans 72% (8th highest)
Cleveland Browns @ Seattle Seahawks -3.5
Lumen Field, Seattle
Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET
Money Line: Cleveland Browns (+152); Seattle Seahawks (-180)
Total: 38; Opened: 38
FPI favorite: Seahawks by 2.2 (56.4% to win outright)
Line Movement Alert: Opened Seahawks -1.5
Projected Score: Seahawks 20, Browns 16
Geno Smith under 1.5 pass TDs (-179): Smith has reached two passing scores in only two out of six games this season. Playcalling has been a major factor, as Seattle's expected pass TD rate of 53% is fifth lowest in the NFL (and aligns almost perfectly with its 54% actual pass TD rate). The Browns allowed two passing scores to Lamar Jackson (Week 4) and Gardner Minshew (Week 7) but surrendered a total of two passing scores in their other four games. Cleveland's defense has the second-best EPA, both overall and against the pass.
Over/Under: 36 (14th highest)
Win Probability: Seahawks 64% (11th highest)
Kansas City Chiefs -7 @ Denver Broncos
Empower Field at Mile High, Denver
Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET
Money Line: Kansas City Chiefs (-350); Denver Broncos (+275)
Total: 47; Opened: 44.5
FPI favorite: Chiefs by 12.3 (81.7% to win outright)
Projected Score: Chiefs 29, Broncos 20
Courtland Sutton anytime TD (+290): Sutton has scored in five out of seven games this season, including once when these two teams met in Week 6. His usage suggests that he has been a bit over his head, but his 3.5 expected TD total ranks eighth and his seven end zone targets rank fourth. Sutton's heavy usage near the goal line isn't new, as he's finished three of his four "full" NFL seasons in the top 15 of WR end zone targets. The Chiefs are playing well defensively, but they're near midpack in TD passes allowed and wideouts have scored against them five times in seven games. I like this down to +176.
Over/Under: 48.9 (2nd highest)
Win Probability: Chiefs 81% (4th highest)
Baltimore Ravens -9.5 @ Arizona Cardinals
State Farm Stadium, Glendale, Arizona
Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET
Money Line: Baltimore Ravens (-480); Arizona Cardinals (+360)
Total: 44.5; Opened: 43
FPI favorite: Ravens by 11.9 (81% to win outright)
Line Movement Alert: Opened Ravens -7.5
Projected Score: Ravens 27, Cardinals 17
Lamar Jackson anytime TD (+140): I have this as essentially a 50/50 toss-up, so I like it all the way down to +105. Jackson already has 69 carries (second most among QBs) for 363 yards (most) and five rushing scores (second most) in seven games this season. Jackson's five scores are legit, as he has a 4.5 expected TD total and four carries inside the opponent's 5-yard line. Arizona has allowed eight rushing scores this season, three of which came from quarterbacks.
Over/Under: 44 (8th highest)
Win Probability: Ravens 83% (2nd highest)
Cincinnati Bengals @ San Francisco 49ers -4
Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, California
Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET
Money Line: Cincinnati Bengals (+170); San Francisco 49ers (-205)
Total: 43.5; Opened: 43.5
FPI favorite: 49ers by 7.9 (71.9% to win outright)
Projected Score: 49ers 28, Bengals 22
Joe Mixon under 81.5 rush + receiving yards (-119): This line is a hair above Mixon's 78.3 average for the season, and the veteran back has fallen short of 82 scrimmage yards in four out of six games. Mixon has enjoyed heavy usage, but the efficiency hasn't matched. He's averaging 3.81 yards per carry (his worst since 2017) and 4.5 yards per target (the worst of his career). This is a tough matchup against a 49ers defense that has allowed the fifth-fewest RB yards this season. Only two backs have even reached 72 yards against San Francisco.
Tyler Boyd over 3.5 receptions (-133): Boyd has managed at least seven targets and four receptions in each of his past five games. The Cincinnati slot man has been on the field a ton (his 84% snap share is up from 73% last season) and that doesn't figure to change in a game in which the Bengals are road underdogs against the 49ers. The San Francisco defense is terrific, but it has faced the fifth-most WR targets and has allowed the fifth-most WR receptions this season. Ten different wideouts have reached five catches against the 49ers.
Over/Under: 49.5 (Highest)
Win Probability: 49ers 72% (9th highest)
Chicago Bears @ Los Angeles Chargers -8.5
SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, California
Sunday 8:20 p.m. ET
Money Line: Chicago Bears (+328) ; Los Angeles Chargers (-430)
Total: 46.5; Opened: 44
FPI favorite: Chargers by 9.7 (76.3% to win outright)
Projected Score: Chargers 27, Bears 19
DJ Moore over 57.5 receiving yards (-118): Tyson Bagent is again subbing in for Justin Fields, which makes this one risky. Still, Moore's heavy usage, strong play and elite matchup make it worth a look. Moore is averaging 8.2 targets per game since Week 2, including at least six in all six games. Since a dud in Week 1, he has reached 58 yards in three out of six games and, even if we remove his outlier 230-yard game in Week 5, he's averaging 67.7 yards per game for the season (90.9 with the big game included). The Chargers, meanwhile, have allowed the most passing yards per game and the most WR yards per game this season. Eight different wideouts have already reached 58 receiving yards against them -- and that total doesn't include the two running backs and two tight ends who also easily cleared the mark.
Over/Under: 45.7 (5th highest)
Win Probability: Chargers 76% (7th highest)
Las Vegas Raiders @ Detroit Lions -8
Ford Field, Detroit
Monday 8:15 p.m. ET
Money Line: Las Vegas Raiders (+320) ; Detroit Lions (-420)
Total: 46; Opened: NL
FPI favorite: Lions by 11 (79.1% to win outright)
Projected Score: Lions 26, Raiders 17
Tracy Walker III over 5.5 total tackles (-118): Since returning healthy and in a full-time role in Week 3, Walker has played on all but one of Detroit's defensive snaps. The veteran safety has reached 6.0 tackles in three out of those six games, falling short with 4.0 in both Weeks 4 and 5. During his most recent full season (2021), Walker averaged 7.0 total tackles per game and reached 6.0 in nine out of 12 games in which he played on at least 70% of snaps.
Over/Under: 43 (9th highest)
Win Probability: Lions 82% (3rd highest)