Welcome to the Week 8 Fantasy Football Playbook, which kicked off Thursday night with the Buccaneers at the Bills.
This column features score projections, over/unders, win probabilities and, of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for season-long and DFS leagues. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision-making, including sit/start decisions, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices.
The advice is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with relatively standard scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 Flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST), although I'll often mention "shallow" or "deep" leagues for some starters. The charts show all players who have been projected for at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/STs. "Matchup" is automatically determined using a proprietary metric that factors in raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed to each position by the opposing defense this season.
(Editor's note: Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player might be ranked slightly higher or lower because of other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to possible updates during the weekend, although at the very minimum, rankings will be updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff. Lines courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise indicated.)
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Houston Texans -3 @ Carolina Panthers
Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, North Carolina
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Adam Thielen, Nico Collins
Both of these teams are returning from their bye week with question marks at running back. When we last saw the Panthers, Miles Sanders was sidelined. Chuba Hubbard stepped in and posted a healthy 19-88-1 rushing line while playing on 79% of snaps. He was targeted only once, but he is a capable receiver and ran a route on 56% of the team's passing plays. If Sanders returns, he'll be a fringe RB2, and Hubbard belongs on benches. If Sanders remains out, Hubbard will be a viable RB2 against a Houston defense that has allowed the ninth-most RB fantasy points to RB.
As for the Texans, Dameon Pierce opened the season as the team's clear lead back and led the RB room in snaps in each of the first five games. That changed in Week 6, however, with Devin Singletary playing on 31 snaps (12 carries, two targets) while Pierce saw just 21 snaps (13 carries, no targets). Even if Pierce reestablishes himself as the lead back, he's yet to clear three targets or 14.9 fantasy points in any game and will be a risky play. He's only on the flex radar because of an elite matchup against a Carolina defense that has allowed the second-most RB fantasy points and the most RB touchdowns (13) this season. Five different backs have produced 20-plus fantasy points against Carolina in six games.
Over/Under: 42.2 (10th highest)
Win Probability: Texans 72% (8th highest)
Los Angeles Rams @ Dallas Cowboys -6
AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Tony Pollard, Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua, CeeDee Lamb
Kyren Williams was placed on IR last week, and it was old friend Darrell Henderson Jr. who replaced him as the Rams' lead back. Henderson handled 18 carries and two targets on 36 snaps (58%) in Week 7, with Royce Freeman (12 carries and zero targets on 26 snaps) being the only other member of the Rams' RB room to see the field. Los Angeles has a tough matchup this week, as Dallas has allowed only one running back to reach 14 fantasy points. As such, while Henderson is the top fantasy option from this group, he's no more than a fringe RB2.
Over/Under: 44 (7th highest)
Win Probability: Cowboys 52% (16th highest)
Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers E
Lambeau Field, Green Bay, Wisconsin
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Alexander Mattison, Aaron Jones, Jordan Addison, T.J. Hockenson
A major dud from the Packers' passing game in Week 7 has demoted Christian Watson from "lineup lock" status. Love tossed two TD passes in the game, but was held below 185 passing yards for the third time this season. Watson has played on 85% of snaps over the last two weeks, but the full-time role earned him only 27 yards on five targets in Week 7. Perhaps Watson will get back on track against a shaky Minnesota CB unit, but he'll need more targets if he's going to emerge as anything more than a WR3/flex. Note that Watson is also dealing with a knee injury so, if he's sidelined, Romeo Doubs and Jayden Reed would become deep-league flex options.
Over/Under: 41.9 (11th highest)
Win Probability: Vikings 58% (13th highest)
New Orleans Saints -1 @ Indianapolis Colts
Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis
Sunday,1 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Alvin Kamara, Jonathan Taylor, Chris Olave, Michael Pittman Jr.
Gardner Minshew surged ahead with 305 yards and two TD passes as well as 29 yards and two touchdowns on the ground against a good Cleveland defense in Week 7. Despite the impressive showing, expectations should be kept in check here considering that the huge day was Minshew's first top-20 fantasy campaign of the season. In fact, Minshew's 27.1 fantasy points were easily a career high and the two rushing scores matched his prior career total. Minshew is a poor fantasy start this week against a New Orleans defense that has allowed the sixth-fewest QB fantasy points. Quarterbacks are averaging only 6.0 yards per attempt and a 58% completion percentage (both third lowest) against the Saints.
Josh Downs burst out with a career-high 125 receiving yards in Week 7. The rookie has now produced at least 13 fantasy points in four of his past five games and he's found the end zone in two straight contests. Downs' 6.7 targets per game (a 20% share) is enough to keep him in the flex discussion, but his ceiling is a bit limited as a short-range target in an offense led by Minshew and with Pittman sitting atop the depth chart. The Saints have yet to allow any wideout to clear 20.4 fantasy points this season, though they have struggled against the slot, which is where Downs aligns 83% of the time.
Over/Under: 40.8 (12th highest)
Win Probability: Colts 61% (12th highest)
New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins -9
Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Tua Tagovailoa, Raheem Mostert, Rhamondre Stevenson, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle
Kendrick Bourne's season has been a bit of a roller coaster. The veteran receiver has produced 16-plus fantasy points in three different games, but has been under nine in his other four outings. Bourne has seen eight-plus targets in four games, but either DeVante Parker or JuJu Smith-Schuster were sidelined for three of those games and he saw no more than five in his other three games. Bourne has been New England's most-reliable target and his team-high 53 targets are 22 more than any other New England player, but he'll be a much better flex if Smith-Schuster remains out this week.
Over/Under: 46.4 (4th highest)
Win Probability: Dolphins 87% (Highest)
New York Jets -3 @ New York Giants
MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Saquon Barkley, Breece Hall, Garrett Wilson, Darren Waller
Wan'Dale Robinson's 8-target, 62-yard showing in Week 6 had him trending toward flex consideration, but the second-year receiver followed that up with a 2-target, 22-yard dud in Week 7. Robinson has established himself as one of the Giants' top-three receivers, but he's yet to play on more than two-thirds of snaps in any single game. Jalin Hyatt, meanwhile, has played on over 70% of snaps in consecutive games and, although he's yet to clear five targets in any single outing, the rookie has the most fantasy upside among New York's receivers. He is your top bench stash. No Giants wideouts should be in lineups against the Jets' elite pass defense this week.
Over/Under: 32.4 (16th highest)
Win Probability: Jets 54% (15th highest)
Jacksonville Jaguars -2.5 @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Travis Etienne Jr., Christian Kirk, George Pickens, Diontae Johnson, Calvin Ridley, Evan Engram
The Steelers scored three rushing touchdowns in Week 7 after failing to record any during their first five games. Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren each scored once, though the duo remained in a committee, with 32 snaps for Harris and 26 for Warren. Harris has cleared 11.3 fantasy points just once this season, whereas Warren has yet to reach 13.0 points in any game. With Harris handling most of the carries and Warren more of the targets, both remain no more than flex options. Note that Warren gets the matchup edge this week, as the Jaguars are excellent against the run (their 3.4 YPC to RBs is third lowest) but are getting hammered by backs in the passing game (the most receptions and fifth-most receiving yards allowed).
Over/Under: 40.3 (13th highest)
Win Probability: Jaguars 69% (10th highest)
Atlanta Falcons -2.5 @ Tennessee Titans
Nissan Stadium, Nashville, Tennessee
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Bijan Robinson, Derrick Henry, DeAndre Hopkins
With Robinson (illness) limited to just 10 snaps last week, Tyler Allgeier (21 carries and three targets on 33 snaps) and Cordarrelle Patterson (10 carries and zero targets on 26 snaps) managed the workload in the Atlanta backfield. Robinson is expected to be a "full go" against the Titans but, should he surprisingly sit out, Allgeier (112 yards in Week 7) would find his way into the RB2 discussion. Patterson would only be under flex consideration in the deepest of formats and is best left on waivers.
Over/Under: 35.5 (15th highest)
Win Probability: Falcons 58% (14th highest)
Philadelphia Eagles -6.5 @ Washington Commanders
FedExField, Landover, Maryland
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Jalen Hurts, D'Andre Swift, A.J. Brown, Terry McLaurin, DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert
Brian Robinson Jr.'s season got off to a hot start, but Washington appears to be interested in leaning into more of a three-headed backfield. Robinson was limited to only eight carries and one target on 32 snaps (48%) in Week 7. Antonio Gibson (two carries, two targets on 26 snaps) was involved as usual, and rookie Chris Rodriguez Jr. (seven carries on nine snaps) stole some work for the second week in a row. Robinson has been bailed out by touchdowns (six in seven games), but he's been held below 14 fantasy points in six out of seven games, including five in a row. Robinson's 3.7 expected-TD mark suggests he's headed for a regression, so especially with Rodriguez's expanding role, Robinson is a name to consider trading away. The second-year back is a weak flex against an Eagles defense that has allowed the fewest RB yards and fantasy points this season.
Over/Under: 45.4 (6th highest)
Win Probability: Eagles 78% (6th highest)
Cleveland Browns @ Seattle Seahawks -3.5
Lumen Field, Seattle
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Kenneth Walker III, DK Metcalf
With Metcalf out in Week 7, Seattle's WR snaps were as follows: Jake Bobo 45, Tyler Lockett 41, Jaxon Smith-Njigba 37, Cody Thompson 3 and Easop Winston Jr. 2. Smith-Njigba was the only Seattle player over five targets (he had seven), though both he (4-63-1 receiving line) and Bobo (4-61-1) had good fantasy showings. Neither had produced a double-digit fantasy outing prior to this game, so neither should be considered for a flex spot unless Metcalf remains out. Lockett, by the way, has fallen short of double-digit fantasy points in four out of six games and has fallen to flex territory. That's especially the case against a Browns defense that, even after a Week 7 debacle, has allowed the fewest WR receptions and fantasy points.
Jerome Ford (ankle) is going to miss a week or two, which sets up Kareem Hunt and Pierre Strong Jr. as Cleveland's top running backs. Hunt has been operating as the No. 2 behind Ford and, although Strong out-snapped him 20-19 in Week 7, Hunt had more carries (10-8) and targets (1-0) despite managing an injury of his own. Hunt, who has three scores over his past two games, is no more than a flex option against a Seattle defense that has allowed a league-low 3.2 yards per RB carry. No running back has cleared 17.4 fantasy points against them.
Over/Under: 36 (14th highest)
Win Probability: Seahawks 64% (11th highest)
Baltimore Ravens -8.5 @ Arizona Cardinals
State Farm Stadium, Glendale, Arizona
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Lamar Jackson, Marquise Brown, Zay Flowers, Mark Andrews
Gus Edwards broke out with 15 touches, 144 yards and a score on Sunday, but note that 80 of those yards came on his lone target. Edwards' usage was roughly the same as usual and his prior season high in yardage was only 62 (Week 2). Edwards is up to two scores and five targets on the season and remains a flex, especially with Justice Hill (27 snaps, compared to 28 for Edwards, in Week 7) still plenty involved. On the plus side, both backs have a plus matchup against a Cardinals defense that has allowed the fourth-most RB fantasy points and nine RB scores this season.
Zach Ertz was placed on IR, which opens the door for Trey McBride to push for TE1 consideration. The 2022 second-round pick was already on the rise (he out-snapped and out-targeted Ertz in both of the last two weeks), but now the table is set for a big leap in usage. McBride flashed some upside with a 7-78-1 receiving line on 10 targets late last season and he's seen 11 targets over the last two weeks. However, this is a brutal matchup as Baltimore has allowed the second-fewest TE yards and fantasy points (as well as no TE touchdowns). McBride is best valued as a midrange TE1 in Week 8.
One week after handling only two carries and one target, Emari Demercado was promoted to clear lead back in Arizona in Week 7. Demercado handled 13 carries and five targets on 50 snaps (79%), whereas Damien Williams was limited to just one carry on 12 snaps (19%) and Keaontay Ingram didn't play on any offensive snaps. Demercado was serviceable (75 yards on 17 touches) and has now reached 11 fantasy points in two of his last three games. The major usage shift makes this a risky backfield to bet on, but, if you're looking for a flex, Demercado is your top option from this backfield against a Baltimore defense that has struggled against the run.
Over/Under: 44 (8th highest)
Win Probability: Ravens 83% (2nd highest)
Kansas City Chiefs -7 @ Denver Broncos
Empower Field at Mile High, Denver
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Patrick Mahomes, Isiah Pacheco, Courtland Sutton, Travis Kelce
Mecole Hardman Jr. made his return to the Chiefs on Sunday and the WR snap counts were as follows: Marquez Valdes-Scantling 45, Skyy Moore 39, Rashee Rice 38, Justyn Ross 15, Kadarius Toney 11, Hardman 10. A clear "top three" appears to have established itself -- and that may be enough for Rice to establish himself as a weekly flex (at worst). Rice has now produced 60-plus yards in two straight games and has a touchdown in two of his last three outings. He's yet to clear seven targets or 17.0 fantasy points in any single game, however, so his ceiling remains a bit limited. He's on the flex radar against a Denver defense that has improved a bit since the Miami/Chicago disasters.
Over/Under: 48.9 (2nd highest)
Win Probability: Chiefs 81% (4th highest)
Cincinnati Bengals @ San Francisco 49ers -3.5
Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, California
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Christian McCaffrey, Joe Mixon, Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle
Joe Burrow is fresh off his bye week, but he's tough to consider a lineup lock after his early-season struggles and in a tough matchup at San Francisco. Burrow's lone good fantasy game came in Week 5 (23.4 points), but he's otherwise averaging a mere 9.0 per game, including 13.8 in his most recent outing (Week 6 vs. Seattle). Perhaps Burrow will be healthy and back to his 2022 self, but he'll have his hands full against a 49ers defense that has allowed the third-fewest QB fantasy points despite having faced the second-most passing attempts. Burrow is a fringe starter.
Over/Under: 49.5 (Highest)
Win Probability: 49ers 72% (9th highest)
Chicago Bears @ Los Angeles Chargers -8.5
SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, California
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Justin Herbert, Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, DJ Moore
D'Onta Foreman went off in Week 7, posting 89 yards and two touchdowns on 16 carries and 31 yards and another score on four targets. Despite the big game, there are some concerns here moving forward. Foreman was limited to just 48% of offensive snaps, which was just ahead of Darrynton Evans (46%, 14 carries, three targets). Foreman figures to have additional competition this week, with rookie Roschon Johnson (concussion) expected back in the lineup. The Chargers have been better against the run this season (most of the damage they've allowed to backs has been via the pass, which isn't an area Foreman is usually utilized), so this is no better than a neutral matchup for the big man. It's probably better to avoid the Bears backfield this week, though Foreman will be a more appealing flex if Johnson remains out.
Over/Under: 45.7 (5th highest)
Win Probability: Chargers 76% (7th highest)
Las Vegas Raiders @ Detroit Lions -8.5Ford Field, Detroit
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Jahmyr Gibbs, Josh Jacobs, Davante Adams, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jakobi Meyers, Sam LaPorta
Gibbs' ranking might raise an eyebrow, but the man was nothing short of a feature back with David Montgomery out in Week 7. Gibbs played on 86% of snaps and soaked up 11 carries and 10 targets. The heavy usage allowed Gibbs to reach 126 yards, score his first NFL touchdown and record the third-most RB fantasy points for the week. We may see a little more of Craig Reynolds this week, but Gibbs is still set up for a big role against a Las Vegas defense that allowed 33 fantasy points to D'Onta Foreman last week. The Raiders have allowed both the fifth-most RB fantasy points and RB scores (8) this season.
Over/Under: 43 (9th highest)
Win Probability: Lions 82% (3rd highest)