Mike Clay is a senior writer for fantasy football and the NFL at ESPN. Mike is a member of the FSWA Hall of Fame. His projections power the ESPN Fantasy Football game, and he also appears on "Fantasy Football Now" and the Fantasy Focus Football podcast.
Week 6's weekend action is right around the corner, and the betting market is loaded with player props. That's why we're bringing you the NFL betting playbook, highlighting some of the top options for each game.
Now, you may already be familiar with my weekly playbook for fantasy football, which features score projections, over/unders, win probabilities and easily digestible fantasy advice for season-long and DFS leagues. Similarly, my weekly betting playbook features several data points for each of this weekend's scheduled games, along with my analysis of a few notable lines I'm interested in betting, though this article is designed in a way that allows you to pick your own favorites.
Note: All lines are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook and were correct as of time of publication.
Tyjae Spears over 2.5 receptions (+110): Spears has at least three receptions in three straight games. The rookie has at least four targets in four of his five NFL games and his route participation is on the rise (36% in Weeks 1-2, 47% in Weeks 3-5). Spears, who has played on over half of the Titans' offensive snaps in four games, will face a Ravens defense that has allowed 4.6 RB receptions per game, including at least three in all five games.
Arden Key over 0.25 sacks (+140): Key has 2.5 sacks this season while playing on 62% of the defensive snaps for Tennessee. This, after he recorded 6.5 sacks with the 49ers in 2021 and 4.5 with the Jaguars last season. Key's 23.3% pass rush win rate is a career best and ranks eighth among 46 edge rushers with at least 100 pass rush attempts this season. Lamar Jackson has struggled with sacks in recent seasons and has taken 15 (sixth most) in five games this season. This one was a better value at +180, but it's still close enough to consider.
Money line: Washington Commanders (+118); Atlanta Falcons (-140) Total: 42.5; Opened: NL FPI favorite: Falcons by 2.3 (56.7% to win outright)
Projected score: Falcons 23, Commanders 15
Sam Howell under 1.5 pass TDs (-164): In six NFL starts, Howell has thrown two TD passes twice, one TD three times and zero TDs once. Howell, who has struggled with both sacks and INTs this season, will head to Atlanta to face a Falcons defense that has allowed the fourth-fewest passing yards this season. Atlanta allowed three passing scores to Jordan Love in Week 2, but held Bryce Young, Jared Goff, Trevor Lawrence and C.J. Stroud to one.
Money line: Minnesota Vikings (-165); Chicago Bears (+140) Total: 44; Opened: 44 FPI favorite: Vikings by 3.7 (60.5% to win outright)
Projected score: Vikings 26, Bears 23
Kirk Cousins over 1.5 pass TDs (-108): Cousins has thrown at least two TD passes in all five games this season, averaging 2.6. In 85 games since joining Minnesota in 2018, Cousins has gone without a passing score only four times (4.7%) and has thrown at least two TD passes 54 times (63.5%). Cousins will be without Justin Jefferson this week, but he has a good matchup against a Bears defense that has allowed 12 TD passes this season (second most). Chicago has surrendered at least two passing scores in four of five games, the exception being Baker Mayfield in Week 2. The Vikings are one of only two teams that have scored all their offensive touchdowns through the air, and Minnesota's 78% expected rate (based on playcalling) is third highest in the league.
Kenneth Walker III anytime TD (+109): Walker has found the end zone in three of his four games, totaling five scores along the way. The production is legit, as Seattle's lead rusher entered the team's Week 5 bye tops in the entire NFL in both expected TDs (4.8) and carries inside the opponent's 5-yard line (7). Walker now has 14 touchdowns in his 16 games since replacing Rashaad Penny as the team's lead back last year. The Bengals are struggling against the run (their 5.0 YPC allowed to RBs is fifth highest) and have surrendered a rushing score in four of their five games.
Joe Mixon under 91.5 scrimmage yards (-115): Mixon's median projection checks in at 65.2 yards, so this is a big gap. The Bengals' lead back has been in the 70-95 yard range in each of his five games, having barely cleared this hefty line in two outings. The most RB scrimmage yards allowed by Seattle this season was Matt Breida's 78 in Week 4. Seattle is allowing 2.6 RB yards per carry (lowest in the NFL) and 4.2 RB yards per target (seventh lowest) this season. Only six of 19 RB scrimmage yard props in the 88.5-94.5 range have gone "over" this season.
Money line: San Francisco 49ers (-550); Cleveland Browns (+400) Total: 36; Opened: 36 FPI favorite: 49ers by 4 (61.5% to win outright)
Projected score: 49ers 25, Browns 19
Isaiah Oliver under 4.5 total tackles (-154): Oliver has exactly 4.0 tackles in four of five games, the exception being a 6.0 tackle performance on an inflated snap total (85%) in Week 2. Oliver is the nickel/slot corner for the 49ers and has been on the field for 67% of the team's defensive snaps this season. He has rarely been a big tackler and hit 5.0 in only two out of 12 games with Atlanta last season. In his highest-tackle season (70 in 2020), Oliver played on 77% of snaps but hit 5.0 tackles in only seven out of 16 games. Even against a Browns offense that leans heavily on three-plus WR sets, the under is the lean here.
Eddy Pineiro over 4.5 kicking points (-120): Pineiro has produced at least 5.0 points in four of five games this season, having barely fallen short in Week 1 (4.0). The veteran has nailed at least one field goal in all five games and two-plus in three outings. Carolina's kicker has quietly emerged as one of the best in the league, having converted 50-of-53 FG attempts since the start of 2021. That 94.3% conversion rate tops the league.
Money line: Indianapolis Colts (+175); Jacksonville Jaguars (-210) Total: 44.5; Opened: 44.5 FPI favorite: Jaguars by 5.1 (64.6% to win outright)
Projected score: Jaguars 23, Colts 19
Calvin Ridley anytime TD (+140): Ridley's best game since joining Jacksonville came in Week 1 against this same Colts defense. Ridley posted season-high marks in targets (11) and receptions (8) en route to producing 101 yards and a score. Ridley slumped a bit in the weeks that followed, but found the end zone in Week 4 before posting a season-high 122 yards on eight targets in Week 5. The Colts have allowed only five passing scores, though all went to wide receivers (which is ninth most) and they've also allowed the ninth-most yards to the position.
Money line: New Orleans Saints (-125); Houston Texans (+105) Total: 42.5; Opened: 40 FPI favorite: Texans by 0 (50% to win outright)
Projected score: Texans 21, Saints 20
Alvin Kamara under 63.5 rush yards (-125): Kamara ran for 51 yards on 11 carries in Week 4 before putting up 80 yards on 22 carries in last week's 34-0 blowout of New England. Kamara's 69% snap share aligns with his past five seasons and is very close to his 2022 rate (70%) when he was under 64 rush yards in nine of 15 games. Kamara will face a Houston defense allowing 3.7 RB yards per carry (11th lowest), so this isn't quite the "pushover" run defense it has been in years past.
Money line: New England Patriots (+122); Las Vegas Raiders (-145) Total: 41.5; Opened: NL FPI favorite: Patriots by 0.8 (52.3% to win outright)
Projected score: Raiders 17, Patriots 16
Christian Barmore under 0.25 sacks (-238): Look familiar? We made this bet last week at -149 and not only did Barmore fail to record a half-sack, but he saw his playing time dip to 49% of New England's defensive snaps. Barmore now has 5.0 sacks in 32 career games, including 1.0 in five games this season. After posting 1.5 on 55% of snaps in 2021, he recorded 2.5 on 49% in 2022. Barmore's pass rush win rate is up quite a bit, but he's nonetheless a long shot for a sack as an interior lineman. Jimmy Garoppolo has been sacked only seven times in four games this season.
Money line: Detroit Lions (-170); Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+143) Total: 42.5; Opened: 42.5 FPI favorite: Lions by 1.3 (53.7% to win outright)
Projected score: Lions 23, Buccaneers 21
Rachaad White under 46.5 rushing yards (-132): White is averaging 49.4 rush yards and has hit 47 in two out of his four outings. White's hefty usage (15.8 carries per game) definitely helps his cause, but his efficiency has been weak (3.3 YPC) and the main issue this week is a tough matchup against Detroit. The Lions have yet to allow over 43 rushing yards to any running back this season and they've faced some good ones, including Walker (43), Bijan Robinson (33), Miles Sanders (32), Isiah Pacheco (23) and Aaron Jones (18). Detroit has allowed a total of 248 rushing yards (49.6 per game) and 3.1 yards per carry to opposing backs, both of which are third lowest in the league. This line fell a ton from its 54.5 opening, but there's still a tiny edge.
Money line: Arizona Cardinals (+270); Los Angeles Rams (-345) Total: 48.5; Opened: 46 FPI favorite: Rams by 7.5 (70.8% to win outright)
Line movement alert: Opened Rams -4.5
Projected score: Rams 28, Cardinals 23
Tyler Higbee under 35.5 receiving yards (-120): Higbee has reached 36 receiving yards in three of five games this season, but the veteran tight end was limited to 20 yards on three targets with Cooper Kupp back in the mix in Week 5. Last season, Higbee opened the year with 36-plus yards in five straight games before hitting 36 in only three of his final 12 outings. The Rams' top three wideouts handled 30 of the team's 39 targets last week and that trend might continue against an Arizona defense that has allowed the sixth-most WR receptions and yards, but also the fifth-fewest TE catches and 11th-fewest yards this season.
Money line: Philadelphia Eagles (-320); New York Jets (+250) Total: 41; Opened: 41 FPI favorite: Eagles by 5.1 (64.4% to win outright)
Projected score: Eagles 26, Jets 19
Jalen Carter under 0.75 sacks (-110), Haason Reddick under 0.75 sacks (+110) and Josh Sweat under 0.75 sacks (-105): There's value on the unders for all three of these Eagles defenders. Carter, Reddick and Sweat have all recorded at least one sack in only two of the Eagles' first five games. Carter has been terrific, but the rookie saw a big spike in playing time with Fletcher Cox sidelined last week (69%) and could revert back to the 45-51% range with Cox expected back Sunday. Reddick is heating up (all 3.0 of his sacks have come in the past two games), but his pass-rush win rate is down a bit from 2022. The latter goes for Sweat, as well, and with 2.5, he's also on pace for a dip in sacks compared with his 11.0 last season. As a team, the Eagles have 15 sacks (eighth most) and are on pace for 51, an expected step back from their league-high 70 sacks last season. Zach Wilson, meanwhile, has taken 14 sacks in five games (2.8 per game).
Zach Wilson over 196.5 pass yards (-118): Wilson fell short of this line in three tough matchups against the Bills (140), Cowboys (170) and Patriots (157) to open the season, but has cleared it the past two weeks against the Chiefs (245) and Broncos (199). In 25 career games in which he has played on at least 90% of snaps, Wilson is averaging 191.6 yards and has cleared 196 yards 12 times. That places him in the range of this line, but what pushes him toward the over is the matchup against Philadelphia. The Eagles are allowing 267.6 pass yards per game (eighth highest) and four out of five opposing quarterbacks have reached 222 yards against them. Teams throw the ball a ton against the Eagles (201 pass attempts is second most) and we should expect the same from the 7-point underdog Jets, especially considering how good the Eagles are against the run (3.1 YPC allowed to RBs is second lowest). There's also some "fade extreme lows" gamesmanship here, as 13 out of 18 pass yardage lines set below 200 yards this season have gone over.
Money line: New York Giants (+650); Buffalo Bills (-1000) Total: 45; Opened: 44.5 FPI favorite: Bills by 17.8 (90.3% to win outright)
Line movement alert: Opened Bills -12
Projected score: Bills 31, Giants 12
Graham Gano under 1.5 extra points (-128): This one is pretty straightforward. The Giants offense is not good. The unit has scored just five touchdowns in five games and four of them came in one game against Arizona. As a result, Gano has converted more than one extra point in only one of five games this season. The Giants are tied for last in XP attempts per game (1.0), and the Bills are tied for the fourth-fewest XP attempts faced. Granted, they're dealing with a few key injuries, but the Bills' defense has allowed a grand total of eight touchdowns in five games this season.
Money line: Dallas Cowboys (-135); Los Angeles Chargers (+115) Total: 51; Opened: 46.5 FPI favorite: Chargers by 0.1 (50.2% to win outright)
Projected score: Cowboys 23, Chargers 23
Justin Herbert anytime TD (+600): Herbert has three rushing scores this season, including at least one in two of his four outings. Herbert did not score on the ground in 2022 while battling an injury, but he ran for eight scores during his first two NFL seasons. Even after serving his bye, Herbert ranks third among quarterbacks in expected TDs (2.3) and is tied for second in carries inside the opponent's 5-yard line (3). Perhaps he'll find his way into the end zone against a Dallas defense that allowed 36-plus rushing yards to Joshua Dobbs, Zach Wilson and Daniel Jones.
Baltimore Ravens -4 @ Tennessee Titans
Washington Commanders @ Atlanta Falcons -2.5
Minnesota Vikings -3 @ Chicago Bears
Seattle Seahawks @ Cincinnati Bengals -2.5
San Francisco 49ers -9.5 @ Cleveland Browns
Carolina Panthers @ Miami Dolphins -13.5
Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars -4
New Orleans Saints -1.5 @ Houston Texans
New England Patriots @ Las Vegas Raiders -2.5
Detroit Lions -3 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams -7
Philadelphia Eagles -7 @ New York Jets
New York Giants @ Buffalo Bills -14.5
Dallas Cowboys -2 @ Los Angeles Chargers