Welcome to the Week 5 Fantasy Football Playbook, which kicks off Thursday night with the Bears at the Commanders.
This column features score projections, over/unders, win probabilities and, of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for season-long and DFS leagues. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision-making, including sit/start decisions, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices.
The advice is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with relatively standard scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 Flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST), although I'll often mention "shallow" or "deep" leagues for some starters. The charts show all players who have been projected for at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/STs. "Matchup" is automatically determined using a proprietary metric that factors in raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed to each position by the opposing defense this season.
(Editor's note: Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player might be ranked slightly higher or lower because of other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to possible updates during the weekend, although at the very minimum, rankings will be updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff. Lines courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise indicated.)
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Jacksonville Jaguars @ Buffalo Bills -5.5
Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London
Sunday 9:30 AM ET
Lineup locks: Josh Allen, Travis Etienne Jr., James Cook, Stefon Diggs, Calvin Ridley, Evan Engram
Trevor Lawrence sits 17th in QB fantasy points, and his eighth-place showing in Week 1 is his only weekly finish better than 15th. Lawrence is still adding some value with his legs, so perhaps better days are ahead, but he shouldn't be near lineups against a Buffalo defense that has allowed a league-low 30.3 QB fantasy points this season. Buffalo is also tops in both INTs (8) and sacks (16).
Christian Kirk has produced three consecutive games with 15-plus fantasy points, having scored or produced 84 yards in all three. A key disclaimer here is that all of this damage has been done in games where Zay Jones left injured or was sidelined. With Jones a full go in Week 1, Kirk's snaps were limited and he was held to three targets. Kirk should be considered a WR3/flex if Jones returns this week, but he can be boosted to WR2 territory if Jones remains out.
Over/Under: 42.2 (10th highest)
Win Probability: Bills 85% (3rd highest)
Houston Texans @ Atlanta Falcons -2
Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta
Sunday 1 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Bijan Robinson, Nico Collins
Dameon Pierce has racked up 17-plus touches in three straight games and reached season-high marks in snap share (56%), touches (25) and yardage (108) in Week 4. That's enough to keep him in the RB2 mix, though he has a major challenge ahead of him this week against a Falcons defense that has yet to allow either a touchdown or an RB fantasy outing of over 12 points this season.
With C.J. Stroud on pace for one of the all-time great seasons by a rookie quarterback, the entirety of Houston's starting WR trio is on the fantasy radar. Collins (no lower than WR7 in yards, touchdowns and fantasy points) is a lineup lock, whereas both Tank Dell and Robert Woods are on the WR3/flex radar. Dell is coming off a Week 3 dud (29 yards on three touches), but the rookie produced 20-plus fantasy points on 17 total targets over the prior two weeks. Woods has yet to find the end zone, but he's averaging a healthy 7.5 targets per game, including six-plus in all four games.
Over/Under: 42 (11th highest)
Win Probability: Texans 58% (11th highest)
Carolina Panthers @ Detroit Lions -10
Ford Field, Detroit
Sunday 1 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: David Montgomery, Miles Sanders, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Adam Thielen, Sam LaPorta
Jahmyr Gibbs returned to clear No. 2 duties in Week 4 with Montgomery back on the field. In three games with an active Montgomery, Gibbs has maxed out at 14 touches and 60 yards. The rookie has yet to find the end zone and has only one carry inside the opponent's 5-yard line, which suggests things may not change soon. Gibbs does sit seventh in RB targets, so he remains in the RB2/flex discussion for a great matchup against a Panthers defense that has allowed 20-plus RB fantasy points three times in four games.
Over/Under: 39.5 (12th highest)
Win Probability: Lions 90% (Highest)
Tennessee Titans -2 @ Indianapolis Colts
Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis
Sunday 1 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Anthony Richardson, Derrick Henry, DeAndre Hopkins, Michael Pittman Jr.
Jonathan Taylor could return to the Colts' lineup this week. Unless reports indicate he'll be severely limited, Taylor will be a viable RB2 option -- although we can't quite call him a lineup lock considering both the uncertainty of his role in his first game back, as well as the tough matchup against the Titans. Tennessee has allowed the third-fewest RB fantasy points and the only back to reach double digits against them was Jerome Ford, who was held to 51 scrimmage yards (but scored two touchdowns). If Taylor remains out, Zack Moss leaps back into the RB2 mix. Moss sits eighth in RB touches and seventh in RB fantasy points per game this season.
Over/Under: 43.3 (8th highest)
Win Probability: Colts 63% (7th highest)
New York Giants @ Miami Dolphins -11
Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida
Sunday 1 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Tua Tagovailoa, Saquon Barkley, De'Von Achane, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Darren Waller
Raheem Mostert took a back seat to Achane last week, totaling just 45 yards on 10 touches while playing on a season-low 41% of snaps. Mostert's snap share has plummeted from 73% during Weeks 1-2 to 47% during Weeks 3-4. His usage could fall even further with Jeff Wilson Jr. eligible to return from IR this week. This is a good matchup as the Giants have allowed the fourth-most RB rushing yards (and five RB touchdowns) this season. That said, with Achane establishing himself as lead back, Mostert is best valued as a flex (or as an RB2 if Wilson remains out).
The Giants shook up their WR room Monday night. Darius Slayton (88% of snaps) continued to lead the way, with Wan'Dale Robinson (64%) and Jalin Hyatt (59%) promoted to larger roles, and Isaiah Hodgins (38%) and Parris Campbell (31%) demoted. There are no good flex options here just yet, but 2022 second-round pick Robinson is a name to consider for your bench. He's up to 10 touches in two games and appeared headed toward a second-half breakout last season prior to tearing his ACL during a 13-target showing in Week 11.
Over/Under: 46.5 (4th highest)
Win Probability: Dolphins 89% (2nd highest)
New Orleans Saints @ New England Patriots -1
Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts
Sunday 1 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Alvin Kamara, Rhamondre Stevenson, Chris Olave
Hunter Henry has seen five-plus targets in every game this season and the veteran tight end reached 50 yards in all three of those games not derailed by poor weather. Henry's 5.8 targets per game are his most since joining the Patriots in 2021 and position him for fringe TE1 production. He's a streaming option against the Saints.
Over/Under: 32.6 (14th highest)
Win Probability: Saints 52% (14th highest)
Baltimore Ravens -4 @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh
Sunday 1 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Lamar Jackson, George Pickens, Zay Flowers, Mark Andrews
Jaylen Warren or Najee Harris? The answer remains "ideally neither." Harris actually went over 100 scrimmage yards in Week 4, but was limited to just 11.3 fantasy points (which was a 2023 high). For the season, Harris is without a touchdown and has just 34 yards on eight targets. Warren, meanwhile, handled a season-high 14 touches in Week 4 but was held to 55 yards. Warren has also yet to find the end zone or clear 12.6 fantasy points in any game.
Pat Freiermuth (hamstring) is expected to miss this game. After he departed Sunday's game, rookie Darnell Washington ran five routes, compared to six for second-year tight end Connor Heyward. The duo combined for just one target in the game and, while Heyward holds a 6-1 target edge on the season, Washington has a big edge in both snaps (103-52) and routes (37-24). Considering this offense's struggles and Kenny Pickett (knee) not being fully healthy, this is a situation best avoided.
Over/Under: 36.3 (13th highest)
Win Probability: Ravens 80% (4th highest)
Cincinnati Bengals -3 @ Arizona Cardinals
State Farm Stadium, Glendale, Arizona
Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Joe Mixon, James Conner, Ja'Marr Chase, Marquise Brown
Joe Burrow is no longer a lineup lock. The veteran sits dead last among all quarterbacks who have started four games. Burrow has struggled with efficiency (4.8 YPA), hasn't found the end zone enough (only two passing scores) and is nonfactor with his legs (a sad 3 rushing yards). Perhaps Burrow will get back on track this week against an Arizona defense that has allowed 14-plus QB fantasy points in all four games, including 21-plus to Daniel Jones and Brock Purdy. With a good matchup and four teams on a bye, Burrow remains a fringe QB1.
Believe it or not, Joshua Dobbs sits fifth in QB fantasy points over the last three weeks. Dobbs is playing very well, having completed 71% of his passes, and he is one of three quarterbacks with 75-plus passing attempts and zero INTs this season. Dobbs has added value with his legs, posting a 24-141-1 rushing line for the season. The journeyman is a streaming option at home against the struggling Bengals.
Tee Higgins (ribs) is in doubt for this game. If he's sidelined, Chase remains the only lineup lock among Bengals pass-catchers, but Tyler Boyd leaps into the WR3/flex discussion. It's worth noting that while Boyd has some fantasy value, the veteran slot receiver saw his targets increase only slightly (from 4.8 to 5.7 per game) when one or both of Chase or Higgins were out in 2022.
Over/Under: 50.2 (2nd highest)
Win Probability: Cardinals 58% (12th highest)
Philadelphia Eagles -4.5 @ Los Angeles Rams
SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, California
Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Jalen Hurts, Kyren Williams, D'Andre Swift, A.J. Brown, Cooper Kupp, DeVonta Smith, Puka Nacua
Kupp is eligible to return from IR this week. If he plays, he should be in lineups, as he is averaging a massive 24.7 fantasy PPG since the start of 2021. Nacua (who is averaging 23.9 PPG during his first four NFL games) should remain in lineups even upon Kupp's return, though a target share dip from 33% to somewhere around 20% is likely. Tutu Atwell (20th in fantasy points) has seen eight-plus targets in all four games, but Kupp's return would likely knock him to flex territory. If Kupp remains out, both Nacua and Atwell will be lineup locks.
Dallas Goedert leads all tight ends in snaps but is only 27th in targets and 29th in fantasy points. Goedert is averaging 4.8 targets per game and is on pace for 374 receiving yards. That's a big dip from his 5.7 targets per game and 702 yards in 2022. Goedert is still running routes at the same rate as last season, so hope remains for a rebound. However, the slow start can't be completely ignored. He's a fringe starter this week.
Over/Under: 50.7 (Highest)
Win Probability: Eagles 62% (8th highest)
New York Jets @ Denver Broncos -1.5
Empower Field at Mile High, Denver
Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET
Lineup lock: Garrett Wilson
Javonte Williams left Sunday's game with an injury after eight snaps. In his absence, Samaje Perine soaked up six carries and two targets on 22 snaps (11 routes). Jaleel McLaughlin handled seven carries and three targets on 16 snaps (eight routes). If Williams plays, this backfield is best avoided, as he's been the lead back, but has yet to deliver a top-25 fantasy outing. If he's sidelined, Perine and McLaughlin figure to split the work and would both be flex dart throws. McLaughlin has looked explosive, but note that his ceiling might be limited at 5-foot-7, 187 pounds.
Breece Hall has followed up his big Week 1 with fewer than 10 fantasy points in three straight. He's averaging 9.3 touches per game this season, though his playing time is on the rise. In Week 4, Hall played on 26 snaps, compared to 17 for Michael Carter and 14 for Dalvin Cook. Hall's recent production suggests he should be on benches, but he has an elite matchup this week against a Denver defense that has allowed the most yards (838), touchdowns (11) and fantasy points (176) to running backs. Four different backs have scored 22-plus points against Denver, including Khalil Herbert in Week 4. Hall is a viable RB2/flex.
Over/Under: 46.3 (5th highest)
Win Probability: Jets 58% (10th highest)
Kansas City Chiefs -4 @ Minnesota Vikings
U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis
Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Patrick Mahomes, Kirk Cousins, Isiah Pacheco, Alexander Mattison, Justin Jefferson, Travis Kelce, T.J. Hockenson
Jordan Addison went without a catch on one target in Week 4. It was a surprising development for a player who had racked up 19 targets during his first three games, but inconsistency should be the expectation as long as the rookie is stuck behind both Jefferson and K.J. Osborn on the depth chart. Addison has come back to earth since finding the end zone in both Weeks 1 and 2. With L'Jarius Sneed likely to shadow Jefferson, Addison has a decent matchup against Joshua Williams this week. He's best viewed as a WR3/flex.
This isn't saying much, but Rashee Rice appears to be the Chiefs wideout you want on your roster. The rookie played on 25% of snaps during Weeks 1-2, but is up to 50% during Weeks 3-4. Rice now leads "all Kansas City players not named Travis Kelce" with 19 targets (a 13% share). Rice has yet to deliver a top-30 fantasy outing, but his increase in usage suggests perhaps he could emerge into a WR3 option. He's an interesting flier this week against a Minnesota defense that has allowed the most WR receptions and fantasy points.
Over/Under: 49.8 (3rd highest)
Win Probability: Chiefs 74% (5th highest)
Dallas Cowboys @ San Francisco 49ers -4
Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, California
Sunday 8:20 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Christian McCaffrey, Tony Pollard, CeeDee Lamb, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle
Jake Ferguson has seen exactly seven targets in three of Dallas' first four games. The second-year TE ranks no lower than eighth at the position in targets, receptions and fantasy points. San Francisco is feisty against tight ends, but Ferguson's 18% target share very much gets him in the back-end TE1 mix.
Over/Under: 45.9 (6th highest)
Win Probability: 49ers 54% (13th highest)
Green Bay Packers -1 @ Las Vegas Raiders
Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas
Monday 8:15 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Josh Jacobs, Aaron Jones, Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers
Christian Watson returned from injury in Week 4 and ran routes on 19 of Green Bay's first 26 passing plays prior to resting in the blowout loss. Watson's heavy usage suggests he'll be a full go for Week 5 and should be in lineups against a Raiders defense that has allowed a league-high six TD receptions to wideouts. Even with Watson back, Romeo Doubs will be tough to bench. The second-year receiver has seen 26 targets over the last two weeks, which has allowed receiving lines of 5-73-1 and 9-95-0. Doubs was limited to only 56 yards on eight targets during Weeks 1-2, but did score twice during those games. Doubs has three top-20 fantasy outings and is a viable WR3/flex.
Over/Under: 44.2 (7th highest)
Win Probability: Packers 61% (9th highest)