Week 5's weekend action is right around the corner, and the betting market is loaded with tons of player props. That's why we're bringing you the NFL betting playbook, highlighting some of the top options for each game.
Now, you may already be familiar with my weekly playbook for fantasy football, which features score projections, over/unders, win probabilities and, of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for season-long and DFS leagues. Similarly, my weekly betting playbook features several data points for each of this weekend's scheduled games, along with my analysis of a few notable lines I'm interested in betting, though this article is designed in a way that allows you to pick your own favorites.
Note: All lines are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook and are correct as of time of publication.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Buffalo Bills -5.5
Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London
Sunday 9:30 a.m. ET
Money line: Jacksonville Jaguars (+205); Buffalo Bills (-250)
Total: 48.5; Opened: 46.5
FPI favorite: Bills by 9.8 (76.2% to win outright)
Line movement alert: Opened Bills -3.5
Projected score: Bills 26, Jaguars 16
Trevor Lawrence under 1.5 pass TDs (-133): The Jaguars rank 28th in offensive EPA this season and Lawrence has, in turn, exceeded one passing score in just one of four games. During his breakout 2022 campaign, Lawrence reached two passing TDs in seven out of 17 regular season games. This week, he'll face a Bills defense that has yet to allow more than one passing touchdown in a game this season. In fact, Buffalo has allowed a grand total of three passing TDs over four games, while ranking first in both INTs and sacks. I like this one as low as -371.
Roy Robertson-Harris under 0.25 sacks (-400): Robertson-Harris is playing on a healthy 66% of the Jaguars' defensive snaps, but the big man is 30 years old and has 13.5 sacks on 2,646 career snaps (86 games). The defensive tackle has yet to record a sack in 2023 and has only three pass rush wins. Perhaps this will be the week he sneaks in a half-sack, but that might be tough against Josh Allen, who has ranked in the 25th-or-lower percentile in sack rate each of the past three seasons. This one opened at -278, so while it's not as appealing now, I like it as low as -559.
Over/under: 42.2 (10th highest)
Win probability: Bills 85% (third highest)
Houston Texans @ Atlanta Falcons -1.5
Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta
Sunday 1 p.m. ET
Money line: Houston Texans (+100); Atlanta Falcons (-120)
Total: 41.5; Opened: 41
FPI favorite: Falcons by 4.1 (61.6% to win outright)
Projected score: Texans 22, Falcons 20
Ka'imi Fairbairn over 6.5 kicking points (-111): Fairbairn has reached 8.0 kicking points in all games and is averaging 10.5. The veteran kicker has converted 11 field goals this season -- including at least two in each game -- and his 12 attempts rank fifth. He has also nailed all nine extra point tries. C.J. Stroud's terrific start has Houston 13th in offensive EPA and should present Fairbairn with plenty of scoring opportunities against Atlanta. He projects for 7.3 points, so this one is appealing as low as -151.
Over/under: 42 (11th highest)
Win probability: Texans 58% (11th highest)
Carolina Panthers @ Detroit Lions -10
Ford Field, Detroit
Sunday 1 p.m. ET
Money line: Carolina Panthers (+360); Detroit Lions (-480)
Total: 44; Opened: 43.5
FPI favorite: Lions by 8.5 (73.1% to win outright)
Projected score: Lions 26, Panthers 13
Jared Goff under 246.5 pass+rush yards (-115): Goff is averaging 260.3 pass+rush yards this season and has cleared 246 twice (323 in Week 2 and 252 in Week 1). Detroit is operating the league's second run-heaviest offense and figures to be able to run often this week against an 0-4 Carolina team that has been run on 47% of the time this season (second highest). Carolina has allowed 27.5 attempts, 18.0 completions and 196.5 yards through the air on a per-game basis this season -- all of which rank bottom six in the league. The four quarterbacks the Panthers have faced (Geno Smith, Kirk Cousins, Desmond Ridder, Derek Carr) combined for 192.3 pass+rush yards per game and only Smith (with 292) even cleared 224 yards. This is a game-script play, so if you want to avoid yards props, Goff under 30.5 completions and under 21.5 completions are viable pivots.
Over/under: 39.5 (12th highest)
Win probability: Lions 90% (highest)
Tennessee Titans -2.5 @ Indianapolis Colts
Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis
Sunday 1 p.m. ET
Money line: Tennessee Titans (-135); Indianapolis Colts (+115)
Total: 43; Opened: 41.5
FPI favorite: Titans by 0.7 (52% to win outright)
Line movement alert: Opened Colts -1
Projected score: Colts 23, Titans 20
Ryan Tannehill over 213.5 pass yards (-115): This one isn't as strong an edge as many others in this piece, but it jumps out with the Titans on the road against the divisional-rival Colts. Tannehill threw for 240-plus yards in both Titans wins this season, but had 198 in a close loss to the Saints in Week 1 and 104 in a blowout loss against a very good Cleveland defense in Week 3. Tannehill hasn't thrown the ball much, but that could change this week against a Colts defense allowing 286.5 pass yards per game (fourth highest), including at least 241 in three out of four games. The Colts also rank top 10 in passing attempts faced, as well as in YPA and completion rate allowed.
Over/under: 43.3 (eighth highest)
Win probability: Colts 63% (seventh highest)
New York Giants @ Miami Dolphins -12
Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida
Sunday 1 p.m. ET
Money line: New York Giants (+500); Miami Dolphins (-700)
Total: 47.5; Opened: 47.5
FPI favorite: Dolphins by 16 (87.7% to win outright)
Line movement alert: Opened Dolphins -10
Projected score: Dolphins 30, Giants 17
Daniel Jones under 1.5 pass TDs (-233): The Giants are tied for last in the NFL with two passing scores this season. That shouldn't be shocking considering they also ranked last in the category during the 2020-22 seasons (14.7 average). Jones threw both of his 2023 touchdowns in the same game (the comeback win against the Cardinals in Week 3), and went without a single TD (passing or rushing) in the other three. Jones has thrown a pair of TDs in 11 out of 45 games since 2020 and hasn't had more than two in a game since his rookie season in 2019. Miami has allowed seven passing scores this season, though four were to Buffalo and Josh Allen last week. The Dolphins allowed exactly one passing score in their games against Justin Herbert, Russell Wilson and Mac Jones.
Over/under: 46.5 (fourth highest)
Win probability: Dolphins 89% (second highest)
New Orleans Saints @ New England Patriots -1
Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts
Sunday 1 p.m. ET
Money line: New Orleans Saints (-105); New England Patriots (-115)
Total: 39.5; Opened: 39
FPI favorite: Patriots by 4 (61.4% to win outright)
Projected score: Saints 17, Patriots 16
Christian Barmore under 0.25 sacks (-149): Barmore has 5.0 sacks in 31 career games. After posting 1.5 on 55% of the snaps in 2021, he recorded 2.5 on 49% in 2022. He has played on 58% of snaps in 2023 and has 1.0 sack. Barmore's pass rush win rate is up quite a bit, but he's nonetheless a long shot for a sack as an interior lineman. Of the 15.0 sacks the Saints have taken this season, only 4.0 were via defensive tackles. I like this as low as -322.
Alvin Kamara under 58.5 rush yards (-104): Kamara returned from suspension in Week 4 and ran for 51 yards on 11 carries while playing a hefty 75% of snaps. Kamara's snap share was similar to his 2022 rate (70%) when he was under 59 rush yards in seven of 15 games. The key this week is a tougher-than-usual matchup against a New England defense allowing 3.7 RB yards per carry (eighth lowest). Raheem Mostert (121 yards in Week 2) is the only running back who has cleared 58 yards against the Patriots this season. Especially with Kamara busy doing his damage in the passing game (14 targets last week), the under is the appealing play -- and that also applies to his carry prop (14.5).
Over/under: 32.6 (14th highest)
Win probability: Saints 52% (14th highest)
Baltimore Ravens -4 @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh
Sunday 1 p.m. ET
Money line: Baltimore Ravens (-210); Pittsburgh Steelers (+175)
Total: 38; Opened: 38
FPI favorite: Ravens by 4.2 (62.1% to win outright)
Line movement alert: Opened Ravens -2
Projected score: Ravens 23, Steelers 14
Jaylen Warren under 29.5 rush yards (-114): Warren has yet to clear either eight carries or 29 rushing yards in a game this season. In fact, he has reached this mark in only six of his 20 career games. The second-year back has primarily focused on receiving work -- his 22 targets are second most on the Steelers -- but has only 25 carries, compared with 49 for lead rusher Najee Harris. The Ravens have been middle-of-the-road against backs this season, though they've allowed exactly one to reach 30 rushing yards against them in each game this season. If one Steelers RB does so this week, Harris would be the better bet.
Over/under: 36.3 (13th highest)
Win probability: Ravens 80% (fourth highest)
Philadelphia Eagles -4 @ Los Angeles Rams
SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, California
Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET
Money line: Philadelphia Eagles (-210); Los Angeles Rams (+175)
Total: 50; Opened: 46.5
FPI favorite: Eagles by 3.7 (60.4% to win outright)
Projected score: Eagles 27, Rams 24
Brett Maher over 6.5 kicking points (-119): Maher has accrued over 6.5 kicking points in all four games. The Rams kicker leads the NFL in FG attempts (16), sits third in made field goals (12) and has converted all eight extra points. Maher's big-time production has come despite league-average accuracy, which is an area where we might see improvement. His 91.0% FG conversion rate in 2022 was well above his 80.5% expected rate based on distance.
Jalen Hurts under 41.5 rush yards (-106): This might not seem like a big number, but Hurts has yet to clear it in four games this season. The versatile quarterback is averaging a hefty 10.0 carries, but that has resulted in just 33.5 rush yards per outing. Hurts is running only slightly less often than in 2022 (11.0 carries per game), but his yardage has fallen off quite a bit from 50.1 per game last season. Even then, Hurts reached 42 rush yards in seven out of 15 regular-season games. Hurts' 3.4 yards per carry is easily a career low.
Matthew Stafford under 1.5 pass TDs (+104): Believe it or not, Stafford has fallen short of two passing scores in all four games this season. In fact, he has thrown for more than one score in just one of his past 11 games tracing back to Week 3 of the 2022 season. Some regression to the mean is on tap for Stafford in the TD department, but the Rams have nonetheless been very run-heavy near the goal line. They've scored 33% of their touchdowns through the air (lowest) and their 48% expected rate based on playcalling is fifth lowest in the league. Kirk Cousins and Mac Jones both reached two passing scores against the Eagles (Weeks 1-2), though Sam Howell and Baker Mayfield were each held short of the mark over the past two weeks. This is a close call, but the plus money makes it interesting.
Over/under: 50.7 (Highest)
Win probability: Eagles 62% (eighth highest)
Cincinnati Bengals -3 @ Arizona Cardinals
State Farm Stadium, Glendale, Arizona
Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET
Money line: Cincinnati Bengals (-165); Arizona Cardinals (+140)
Total: 44.5; Opened: 42.5
FPI favorite: Bengals by 7 (69.5% to win outright)
Projected score: Cardinals 26, Bengals 24
Zach Ertz anytime TD (+300): Ertz has yet to find the end zone this season, but it hasn't been due to a lack of opportunity. He had a near-miss on a drop at the goal line last week and now ranks third in TE targets (28), fourth in receptions (20) and 10th in expected touchdowns (1.4). The Bengals have allowed three TE touchdowns this season (second most), as well as 8.8 yards per target (fifth highest) and an 84% catch rate (fourth highest).
Over/under: 50.2 (second highest)
Win probability: Cardinals 58% (12th highest)
New York Jets @ Denver Broncos -2.5
Empower Field at Mile High, Denver
Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET
Money line: New York Jets (+115); Denver Broncos (-135)
Total: 43.5; Opened: 40
FPI favorite: Jets by 1.1 (53.3% to win outright)
Projected score: Jets 24, Broncos 22
Garrett Wilson anytime TD (+195): The Jets have four passing scores this season and Wilson was on the receiving end of two of them. The second-year receiver ranks 11th in WR targets (9.0 per game), which is actually up slightly from the 8.7 per game he averaged as a rookie when he finished sixth in the category. Wilson's 32% target share sets him up well for scoring opportunities -- and that's especially the case this week against a Denver defense that has allowed the most touchdowns (20, six more than any other defense), most passing scores (13) and most WR touchdowns (6) this season. Denver has allowed an opposing wideout to catch a touchdown in all four games this season.
Over/under: 46.3 (fifth highest)
Win probability: Jets 58% (10th highest)
Kansas City Chiefs -3.5 @ Minnesota Vikings
U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis
Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET
Money line: Kansas City Chiefs (-180); Minnesota Vikings (+152)
Total: 52.5; Opened: 51.5
FPI favorite: Chiefs by 7.5 (70.5% to win outright)
Projected score: Chiefs 28, Vikings 21
Ivan Pace Jr. under 6.5 total tackles (-111): Pace recorded 8.0 tackles in Weeks 1 and 2, but played on 68% and 80% of snaps, respectively, in those games. He had 4.0 tackles on 61% of snaps in Week 3 and 5.0 tackles on a season-low 53% snap share in Week 4. The undrafted rookie's playing time has seemingly dipped a bit as Josh Metellus has handled an expanded safety/slot/box defender role in recent weeks.
Over/under: 49.8 (third highest)
Win probability: Chiefs 74% (fifth highest)
Dallas Cowboys @ San Francisco 49ers -4
Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, California
Sunday 8:20 p.m. ET
Money line: Dallas Cowboys (+158); San Francisco 49ers (-190)
Total: 45; Opened: 45
FPI favorite: 49ers by 2.8 (58.1% to win outright)
Projected score: 49ers 24, Cowboys 22
Brock Purdy over 31.5 pass attempts (-128): The Cowboys have faced 108 passing attempts this season (second fewest in the league), but a closer look suggests we shouldn't overvalue that data point. In three blowout wins against Daniel Jones/Tyrod Taylor, Zach Wilson and Mac Jones/Bailey Zappe, Dallas faced 30, 27 and 30 passing attempts. In a loss to Arizona, Joshua Dobbs attempted 21 passes in a game Arizona never trailed while on offense. In a similar vein, Purdy has been under 32 passing attempts in three out of four games, but the 49ers are 4-0 and have held a lead on a league-high 69% of their offensive snaps. San Francisco is favored in this game, but by only 4.0 points (its lowest since Week 1) in what should be a competitive game with 3-1 Dallas. This line has already moved up from 29.5, but Purdy's projection checks in at 33.0.
Over/under: 45.9 (sixth highest)
Win probability: 49ers 54% (13th highest)
Green Bay Packers @ Las Vegas Raiders -1
Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas
Monday 8:15 p.m. ET
Money line: Green Bay Packers (-105); Las Vegas Raiders (-115)
Total: 44.5; Opened: 0
FPI favorite: Packers by 2.9 (58.3% to win outright)
Projected score: Packers 24, Raiders 21
Christian Watson over 3.5 receptions (+110): Watson was limited to four targets in his return to action in Week 4, but managed a pair of catches and a touchdown. He should be a "full go" this week, which positions him well to clear three receptions. Watson first took on a full-time role in Week 10 last season and caught at least four passes in six of eight games. The Raiders haven't faced much pass volume this season (seventh-fewest passing attempts against), but have allowed a 71% completion rate (sixth highest) and five wideouts have caught at least four passes against them.
Over/under: 44.2 (seventh highest)
Win probability: Packers 61% (ninth highest)