Welcome to the Week 6 Fantasy Football Playbook, which kicked off Thursday night with the Broncos at the Chiefs.
This column features score projections, over/unders, win probabilities and, of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for season-long and DFS leagues. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision-making, including sit/start decisions, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices.
The advice is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with relatively standard scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 Flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST), although I'll often mention "shallow" or "deep" leagues for some starters. The charts show all players who have been projected for at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/STs. "Matchup" is automatically determined using a proprietary metric that factors in raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed to each position by the opposing defense this season.
(Editor's note: Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player might be ranked slightly higher or lower because of other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to possible updates during the weekend, although at the very minimum, rankings will be updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff. Lines courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise indicated.)
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Baltimore Ravens -4 @ Tennessee Titans
Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London
Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET
Lineup locks: Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, DeAndre Hopkins, Mark Andrews
Tyjae Spears is coming off a career-best 16.9-point fantasy outing in Week 5, but the rookie isn't yet a fantasy option. Spears was limited to just 11 touches after being in the 8-10 range over his prior three games, and the touchdown was the first of his career. Spears is all but splitting snaps with Henry and holds a 19-11 lead in targets, but the veteran remains the clear-cut primary rusher with 86 carries to only 27 for Spears.
Over/Under: 42.9 (10th highest)
Win Probability: Ravens 73% (6th highest)
Washington Commanders @ Atlanta Falcons -2.5
Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET
Lineup lock: Bijan Robinson
Terry McLaurin seemed to get back on track with 86 yards on 11 targets in Week 4, but he regressed to 49 yards on only five targets in a great matchup against Chicago in Week 5. McLaurin has now seen six or fewer targets in eight of his past nine games and is averaging a mere 12.9 fantasy PPG during the span. Especially with A.J. Terrell shadow coverage looming, McLaurin is no more than a flex play this week.
Kyle Pitts "broke out" for 87 yards on a career-high 11 targets in Week 5. Is that enough to get him back into the "lineup lock" mix? Not quite. Pitts' 15.7 fantasy points was his second-highest total since the start of the 2022 season, and he's averaging only 7.6 PPG during the 15-game span. Pitts has now seen nine-plus targets in two of his past three games, but he hasn't cleared five in his other three outings in 2023. Pitts is safest viewed as a fringe TE1, especially against a Commanders defense that has allowed the sixth-fewest TE fantasy points.
Over/Under: 37.8 (14th highest)
Win Probability: Falcons 75% (5th highest)
Minnesota Vikings -2.5 @ Chicago Bears
Soldier Field, Chicago
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Kirk Cousins, Justin Fields, Alexander Mattison, DJ Moore, T.J. Hockenson, Cole Kmet
Khalil Herbert (ankle) is expected to miss a few weeks and Roschon Johnson (concussion) is questionable to play in Week 5. If the 10-day window is enough for Johnson to get cleared, the rookie would figure to share carries with D'Onta Foreman while handling most passing-game work. That would be enough for flex consideration. If Johnson is out, Foreman would be in for a massive workload, with Darrynton Evans (signed this week) being his top competition for work. In that scenario, Foreman would be a fringe RB2.
Justin Jefferson (hamstring) was placed on IR and will miss at least four games. After his departure last week, the Vikings' WR routes were as follows: Jordan Addison 17, K.J. Osborn 17, Brandon Powell 15, N'Keal Harry 1. Addison (12.4 PPG) has been the most productive Minnesota receiver not named Jefferson this season, and a projected boost in targets gets him into the WR3 mix this week. Osborn (8.3 PPG) has been outsnapping Addison through the first quarter of the season and is a viable WR3/flex. Consider Powell only in DFS tournaments.
Over/Under: 49.1 (3rd highest)
Win Probability: Vikings 62% (10th highest)
Seattle Seahawks @ Cincinnati Bengals -2.5
Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Joe Burrow, Kenneth Walker III, Joe Mixon, Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett
With Higgins sidelined last week, Chase exploded for 15-192-3 on 19 targets, but he wasn't the only productive Cincinnati receiver. Trenton Irwin chipped in with 8-60-0 on 10 targets, and Tyler Boyd added 6-39-0 on seven targets. The Seahawks are healthier at corner coming off the bye, but they've allowed the most WR fantasy PPG this season. If Higgins remains out, Irwin and Boyd will be flex options in deep leagues.
Over/Under: 46.8 (5th highest)
Win Probability: Bengals 51% (14th highest)
San Francisco 49ers -7 @ Cleveland Browns
Cleveland Browns Stadium, Cleveland
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, Amari Cooper, George Kittle
We're avoiding both quarterbacks in this one. Deshaun Watson (shoulder) is out, replaced by PJ Walker. He'll have tough going against a 49ers defense that has allowed the third-fewest QB fantasy points despite having faced the second-most passing attempts. Brock Purdy is playing elite ball and sits fifth in fantasy points, but he's been more of high-floor option than a high-end producer -- his sixth place in Week 5 is his only finish better than ninth. The Browns have allowed the fewest passing yards, the second-fewest passing scores and the fourth-fewest QB fantasy points this season.
Over/Under: 43.7 (8th highest)
Win Probability: 49ers 70% (8th highest)
New Orleans Saints -1.5 @ Houston Texans
NRG Stadium, Houston
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Alvin Kamara, Nico Collins, Chris Olave
Tank Dell (concussion) is dicey for Week 6, which solidifies Collins as a lineup lock and vaults Robert Woods into the flex discussion. Believe it or not, Woods actually leads Houston in targets this season (23% share), although he has turned the 39 looks into an underwhelming 21-221-0 receiving line. The Saints have been feisty against wide receivers, however, so the veteran is best viewed as a low-ceiling flex.
It took a few weeks, but Dalton Schultz is getting acclimated in Houston. The ex-Dallas tight end was limited to a 7-47-0 receiving line on 14 targets during Weeks 1-3, but he found the end zone in Week 4 before leaping to 7-65-1 on 10 targets (matching a career high) in Week 5. Schultz's 16% target share is enough to get him back into the streaming conversation, although this is a tough matchup against a Saints defense that has allowed the fewest TE fantasy points this season. He'll be a more appealing option this week if Dell is out.
Over/Under: 40.7 (13th highest)
Win Probability: Texans 52% (13th highest)
Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars -4
TIAA Bank Field, Jacksonville, Florida
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Travis Etienne Jr., Michael Pittman Jr., Calvin Ridley, Christian Kirk, Evan Engram
Trevor Lawrence is off to a slow start, having produced only one weekly finish better than 15th. Of course, that one exception (eighth) came against these same Colts back in Week 1. Indianapolis has allowed the fourth-most passing yards this season, and four out of five opposing quarterbacks have reached 16 fantasy points against them. At least for this week, Lawrence is a QB1 option.
Jonathan Taylor returned to action last week but was limited to six carries and one target on 10 snaps (16%). Zack Moss, meanwhile, had a career day, posting 195 yards and a pair of scores on 25 touches. Moss has now delivered four games with 100-plus yards, 20-plus fantasy points and at least one touchdown this season. Despite his strong play, the Colts just made Taylor one of the league's highest-paid running backs, which means he's guaranteed to eventually take control of this backfield. Expect a larger role this week, although the uncertainty leaves both as fringe RB2 options.
Over/Under: 42.8 (11th highest)
Win Probability: Jaguars 63% (9th highest)
Carolina Panthers @ Miami Dolphins -13.5
Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Tua Tagovailoa, Raheem Mostert, Tyreek Hill, Adam Thielen, Jaylen Waddle
Miles Sanders is trending in the wrong direction. The veteran back handled a season-high 22 touches in Week 1, averaged 15.7 per game during Weeks 2-4 and hit a low with just seven in Week 5. Sanders sits 16th in RB touches, but he's only 27th in yardage because of poor efficiency as a rusher (3.1 YPC) and as a receiver (3.4 YPT). Sanders has played seven fewer snaps than Chuba Hubbard over the past two weeks and is no longer a lineup lock. Consider him a flex against Miami.
De'Von Achane (knee) is out for at least four weeks, which vaults Mostert back into the RB1 discussion. Mostert has played on 50% of Miami's offensive snaps during Achane's emergence over the past three weeks. Before that, he had played on 74% of the snaps. Even with the change in role, Mostert sits second in RB fantasy points for the season, ranking first at the position in touchdowns (8), as well as eighth in receptions and total yards. Mostert is back in the RB1 mix this week against a Panthers defense that has allowed the second-most fantasy points, third-most yards and most scores (9) to backs this season. Jeff Wilson Jr. could return from IR this week, and although he's a bit risky to start in his first week back, he could be a big factor as soon as Week 7.
Over/Under: 49 (4th highest)
Win Probability: Dolphins 91% (3rd highest)
New England Patriots @ Las Vegas Raiders -3
Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Josh Jacobs, Rhamondre Stevenson, Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers
Hunter Henry appeared to have climbed his way back into the TE1 discussion, but the veteran promptly delivered a goose egg on a season-low two targets against the Saints. Before that dud, Henry had seen at least seven targets in all four of New England's games, although he has yet to clear 56 yards in any game. Since joining the Patriots in 2021, Henry is averaging 5.2 fantasy PPG in the 28 games in which he didn't find the end zone and 15.8 in the 11 games he did. Most of the latter came in 2021, as he has scored in only four of his past 26 games. Henry will rebound a bit in Week 6, although last week is a reminder that he's no more than a risky, TD-dependent streamer.
Over/Under: 33.1 (15th highest)
Win Probability: Raiders 54% (12th highest)
Detroit Lions -3.5 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: David Montgomery, Mike Evans, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Chris Godwin, Sam LaPorta
While St. Brown was out last week, Jameson Williams made his 2023 debut. The Lions' WR snaps were as follows: Marvin Jones Jr. 35 (out of 60), Kalif Raymond 29, Williams 28, Josh Reynolds 28, Antoine Green 11, Dylan Drummond 5. Despite surprisingly tying for third in routes, Reynolds was the only Detroit wideout with over three targets. St. Brown is expected back this week, so the situation behind him is best avoided for now. That said, Williams saw the field enough that the 2022 first-round pick could be on the flex radar in the near future.
Rachaad White has handled 17-22 touches in all four games this season. He has cleared 10.8 fantasy points only once but has now reached 60 yards in three straight outings. This week, he'll face a Detroit defense that has allowed the third-fewest RB fantasy points (and 3.1 YPC) this season. Only one running back has cleared 10 fantasy points against the Lions. White's heavy usage is all that keeps him in the RB2/flex discussion.
Over/Under: 43.7 (9th highest)
Win Probability: Lions 59% (11th highest)
Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams -7SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, California
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Kyren Williams, Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua, Marquise Brown
James Conner (knee) will be out for at least four weeks, which sets up a likely committee in the Arizona backfield. During Weeks 1-3, Keaontay Ingram (12 carries and one target on 22 snaps) and rookie Emari Demercado (three carries and two targets on 20 snaps) essentially split No. 2 duties, but with the former out with a neck injury over the past two weeks, Demercado has held down the gig. The rookie has been serviceable (88 yards, 1 TD on 20 touches), but it's unclear how touches will be distributed among him, Ingram (if healthy) and waiver claim Tony Jones Jr. Demercado is the top waiver add, but none of these backs is a recommended flex option against the Rams.
With Kupp back in Week 5, the Rams' WR depth chart quickly became clear. Nacua (100% of snaps), Kupp (95%) and Tutu Atwell (89%) are the top three, with Van Jefferson (4%) joining Ben Skowronek (11%) as a clear reserve. The usage confirmed Kupp and Nacua as lineup locks, but it also helps support Atwell as a viable flex option (especially after Jefferson was traded to Atlanta). The entire trio is in a good spot this week against an Arizona defense that just allowed a 52-point outing to Ja'Marr Chase.
Over/Under: 50.9 (2nd highest)
Win Probability: Rams 70% (7th highest)
Philadelphia Eagles -7 @ New York Jets
MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Jalen Hurts, D'Andre Swift, Breece Hall, A.J. Brown, Garrett Wilson, DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert
The Eagles committed to getting Goedert back on track last week, and the result was an 8-117-1 receiving line on nine targets. It was Goedert's first double-digit fantasy outing of 2023 and his first game with 20-plus points since Week 9 of last season. Goedert is averaging 5.6 targets per game, which aligns with his 5.5-5.9 range during the 2019-22 seasons, so he's a good bet to return to consistent mid-to-back-end TE1 numbers moving forward. He should be in lineups against a Jets defense that has allowed the most TE fantasy points and touchdowns (5) this season.
Over/Under: 44.8 (7th highest)
Win Probability: Eagles 76% (4th highest)
New York Giants @ Buffalo Bills -14
Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, New York
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Josh Allen, Saquon Barkley, James Cook, Stefon Diggs, Darren Waller
Gabe Davis has found the end zone in four consecutive games, but that's not quite enough to get him in the lineup-lock mix. The deep threat is averaging 5.2 targets per game, which is actually a step back from the 6.2 per game he averaged when he finished as WR36 in fantasy PPG last season. Davis is fourth among wideouts in touchdowns, but just 48th in targets and 19th in expected TDs (2.3). Davis remains a boom/bust flex, although he has some added appeal this week against a Giants defense that has allowed six WR scores (fifth-most) this season.
Over/Under: 42.4 (12th highest)
Win Probability: Bills 96% (Highest)
Dallas Cowboys -2.5 @ Los Angeles ChargersSoFi Stadium, Inglewood, California
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Justin Herbert, Tony Pollard, Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, CeeDee Lamb
In the Chargers' first game without Mike Williams, it was Joshua Palmer (87% snap share) and Allen (76%) who led the Chargers' WR room, with Quentin Johnston (51%), Derius Davis (19%) and Keelan Doss (6%) all seeing some level of involvement. Palmer, who led the team with eight targets, has delivered consecutive top-35 fantasy outings, and the Chargers' pass-heavy, high-scoring offense has him locked into the WR3/flex mix. Johnston isn't yet a flex option, but the first-round rookie's career high in snap share is a step in the right direction. He should be on benches.
Over/Under: 46.7 (6th highest)
Win Probability: Cowboys 50% (15th highest)