Week 4's weekend action is right around the corner, and the betting market is loaded with tons of player props. That's why we're bringing you the NFL betting playbook, highlighting some of the top options for each game.
Now, you may already be familiar with my weekly playbook for fantasy football, which features score projections, over/unders, win probabilities and, of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for season-long and DFS leagues. Similarly, my weekly betting playbook will feature several data points for each of this weekend's scheduled games, along with my analysis of a few notable lines I'm interested in betting, though this article is designed in a way that allows you to pick your own favorites.
Note: All lines are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook and are correct as of time of publication.
Atlanta Falcons @ Jacksonville Jaguars -3
Wembley Stadium, London
Sunday 9:30 a.m. ET
Money Line: Atlanta Falcons (+126) ; Jacksonville Jaguars (-150)
Total: 43; Opened: 43
FPI favorite: Jaguars by 0.9 (52.5% to win outright)
Projected Score: Jaguars 21, Falcons 19
Trevor Lawrence anytime TD (+525): Lawrence has yet to rush for a score this season, but he has scrambled seven times and sits fifth among quarterbacks in expected rushing TDs (1.0). He scored five rushing touchdowns in 2022. He's also going against an Atlanta defense that allowed a rushing touchdown to Jared Goff just last week. This is a value at the attractive vig.
Over/Under: 40.4 (12th highest)
Win Probability: Jaguars 55% (13th highest)
Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills -2.5
Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, New York
Sunday 1:00 p.m. ET
Money Line: Miami Dolphins (+122) ; Buffalo Bills (-145)
Total: 53.5; Opened: 49.5
FPI favorite: Dolphins by 0.4 (51.2% to win outright)
Projected Score: Bills 26, Dolphins 25
Tua Tagovailoa under 1.5 pass TDs (+116): Tagovailoa has four passing scores in four career full games against the Bills. That includes three in the two meetings between these teams in 2022. Tagovailoa has hit this mark twice in three games so far in 2023, though those overs were against the struggling Chargers and Broncos, whereas he was held to just one passing score against New England. Tagovailoa fell short of two passing TDs in seven out of 13 games in 2022. Buffalo has allowed a total of two passing touchdowns in three games this season.
Over/Under: 51.4 (Highest)
Win Probability: Bills 52% (14th highest)
Denver Broncos -3.5 @ Chicago Bears
Soldier Field, Chicago
Sunday 1:00 p.m. ET
Money Line: Denver Broncos (-170) ; Chicago Bears (+143)
Total: 46; Opened: 44.5
FPI favorite: Broncos by 1 (53% to win outright)
Line Movement Alert: Opened Broncos -1.5
Projected Score: Bears 24, Broncos 23
Russell Wilson over 1.5 pass TDs (+106): Wilson has thrown six touchdowns this season, which is tied for the fifth most in the NFL entering Week 4. That includes two-plus passing scores in both Week 1 and 2. Wilson will face a Bears defense that allowed three passing touchdowns to both Jordan Love and Patrick Mahomes earlier this season.
Over/Under: 46.6 (4th highest)
Win Probability: Bears 55% (12th highest)
Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns -1.5
Cleveland Browns Stadium, Cleveland
Sunday 1:00 p.m. ET
Money Line: Baltimore Ravens (+105) ; Cleveland Browns (-125)
Total: 39.5; Opened: 39.5
FPI favorite: Ravens by 1.4 (53.9% to win outright)
Line Movement Alert: Opened Ravens -1.5
Projected Score: Browns 20, Ravens 18
Deshaun Watson under 1.5 pass TDs (-135): Since the start of last season, Watson has thrown multiple touchdowns in just three out of nine starts. Watson, who ranks 22nd in QBR, will face a Ravens defense that has allowed multiple TD passes in a league-low four out of 20 games over the same span. The Ravens have allowed a grand total of three passing scores in three games this season after surrendering 20 all of 2022 (eighth fewest).
Over/Under: 38.7 (14th highest)
Win Probability: Browns 58% (10th highest)
Cincinnati Bengals -2.5 @ Tennessee Titans
Nissan Stadium, Nashville, Tennessee
Sunday 1:00 p.m. ET
Money Line: Cincinnati Bengals (-150) ; Tennessee Titans (+126)
Total: 41; Opened: 40.5
FPI favorite: Bengals by 3.8 (60.9% to win outright)
Line Movement Alert: Opened Titans -1.5
Projected Score: Bengals 24, Titans 21
Ryan Tannehill anytime TD (+650): Tannehill scored only two rushing touchdowns all of last season (in 12 games), but he had exactly seven in both 2020 and 2021 -- and he has already rushed for a score in 2023. He's set to face a Bengals defense that has allowed 45-plus rushing yards to both Watson and Lamar Jackson, as well as a rushing score to Watson. This is a value at +650.
Over/Under: 45 (7th highest)
Win Probability: Bengals 64% (6th highest)
Los Angeles Rams E @ Indianapolis Colts
Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis
Sunday 1:00 p.m. ET
Money Line: Los Angeles Rams (-115) ; Indianapolis Colts (-105)
Total: 46; Opened: 44.5
FPI favorite: Rams by 2.1 (56% to win outright)
Projected Score: Colts 21, Rams 21
Kyren Williams anytime TD (+117): Williams has scored four times in three games and I like this as low as -147. His 47 touches this season are 15 higher than any other player on the Rams' offense and he ranks fourth in expected TDs (2.9) and sixth in carries inside the opponent's 5-yard line (3). Since the start of last season, the Indianapolis defense has allowed 53 scrimmage touchdowns, sixth most in the NFL.
Matthew Stafford under 1.5 pass TDs (-127): Stafford has thrown multiple passing scores in just two out of 12 games since the start of last season. He went without a single passing touchdown in Week 1 and threw exactly one against both the 49ers and Bengals. The Colts allowed a pair of passing scores to both the Jaguars and Texans but held the Ravens without one last week.
Over/Under: 42.7 (10th highest)
Win Probability: Colts 50% (16th highest)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints -3.5
Caesars Superdome, New Orleans
Sunday 1:00 p.m. ET
Money Line: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+148) ; New Orleans Saints (-175)
Total: 39.5; Opened: 39.5
FPI favorite: Saints by 1.8 (55.1% to win outright)
Projected Score: Saints 20, Buccaneers 16
Blake Grupe under 2.5 XP Made (-135): Grupe has yet to clear two made extra points in a game this season. The Saints' offense has struggled to convert in the red zone, scoring a touchdown on just four of 10 red zone drives. On Sunday, they will face a Buccaneers defense that has been stout in the red zone, allowing just three touchdowns on nine opponent red zone drives, which includes just one touchdown to the Eagles on five red zone drives last week.
Over/Under: 36.5 (15th highest)
Win Probability: Saints 63% (8th highest)
Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles -9
Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia
Sunday 1:00 p.m. ET
Money Line: Washington Commanders (+345) ; Philadelphia Eagles (-455)
Total: 43; Opened: E
FPI favorite: Eagles by 10 (76.6% to win outright)
Projected Score: Eagles 28, Commanders 17
Jahan Dotson over 3.5 receptions (-109): No player has run more routes for Washington this season than Dotson (110) and his 16 targets are tied with Terry McLaurin for the most on the team. Dotson caught five passes in Week 1, though he totaled five in Weeks 2-3. The Eagles have allowed 44 receptions to opposing wide receivers this season, including five-plus to five different wideouts. Dotson has a terrific matchup against Josh Jobe, with McLaurin likely to draw Darius Slay shadow coverage.
Over/Under: 44.6 (8th highest)
Win Probability: Eagles 85% (2nd highest)
Minnesota Vikings -4 @ Carolina Panthers
Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, North Carolina
Sunday 1:00 p.m. ET
Money Line: Minnesota Vikings (-220) ; Carolina Panthers (+180)
Total: 46.5; Opened: 44
FPI favorite: Vikings by 5 (64% to win outright)
Projected Score: Vikings 23, Panthers 20
T.J. Hockenson over 4.5 receptions (-164): Since being traded to the Vikings last season, Hockenson has eclipsed five receptions in 10 out of 13 games, including every game this season. He has seen 28 targets in 2023, which is six more than any other tight end. Carolina is allowing 9.2 yards per TE target this season (third highest) and surrendered seven catches to Seattle's tight ends in Week 3.
Alexander Mattison over 12.5 carries (+100): Mattison fell short of this mark in both Week 1 (11) and Week 2 (8) but made the leap to 20 carries in Week 3. Mattison is the clear feature back in Minnesota at the moment, as he has handled 83% of the team's designed runs. Carolina has struggled badly against the run and has faced 21-plus RB carries in all three games (25.0 per game).
Over/Under: 43.2 (9th highest)
Win Probability: Vikings 58% (9th highest)
Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5 @ Houston Texans
NRG Stadium, Houston
Sunday 1:00 p.m. ET
Money Line: Pittsburgh Steelers (-145) ; Houston Texans (+122)
Total: 42.5; Opened: 40.5
FPI favorite: Steelers by 3.1 (58.8% to win outright)
Projected Score: Steelers 21, Texans 19
Kenny Pickett over 0.5 INTs (+106): Pickett has thrown three interceptions this season (eighth most), but also has had three interceptions dropped by defenders (tied for the most). In Week 4, he faces a Texans defense that ranked seventh in interceptions in 2022 and already has two in three games here in 2023. This is a solid investment at plus money.
Over/Under: 39.7 (13th highest)
Win Probability: Steelers 57% (11th highest)
Las Vegas Raiders @ Los Angeles Chargers -5
SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, California
Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET
Money Line: Las Vegas Raiders (+192) ; Los Angeles Chargers (-235)
Total: 48.5; Opened: 50.5
FPI favorite: Chargers by 9.2 (74.7% to win outright)
Projected Score: Chargers 31, Raiders 19
Justin Herbert over 1.5 pass TDs (-200): Herbert has thrown multiple touchdowns in four of his past five games dating back to last season. That includes at least two in both of the past two weeks. Herbert has also performed well against the Raiders in his career, throwing multiple touchdowns in five out of six games. The Raiders' pass defense has struggled badly this season, ranking 31st in opponent total QBR (70.9) while allowing seven TD passes with no interceptions. All three Raiders opponents in 2023 have thrown at least two TD passes against them.
Over/Under: 50.7 (2nd highest)
Win Probability: Chargers 81% (3rd highest)
New England Patriots @ Dallas Cowboys -6.5
AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas
Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET
Money Line: New England Patriots (+235) ; Dallas Cowboys (-292)
Total: 43.5; Opened: 41.5
FPI favorite: Cowboys by 6.7 (68.7% to win outright)
Projected Score: Cowboys 21, Patriots 15
Dak Prescott under 1.5 pass TDs (-123): Prescott has just three passing scores this season, having fallen short of two TD passes in two out of three games. On Sunday, he will face a Patriots defense that has allowed just two passing scores this season, tied for the third fewest in the NFL. Both touchdown throws against the Patriots have come in the red zone, which is an area opponents have struggled to reach against New England. This season, the Patriots have allowed just six red zone drives, tied for the third fewest in the NFL. The Cowboys have made it to the red zone a league-high 15 times this season, but they have converted those drives into touchdowns just 40% of the time, tied for the fourth-lowest mark in the NFL.
Over/Under: 36.2 (16th highest)
Win Probability: Cowboys 69% (5th highest)
Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers -14
Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, California
Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET
Money Line: Arizona Cardinals (+600) ; San Francisco 49ers (-900)
Total: 44; Opened: 41
FPI favorite: 49ers by 15.8 (87.4% to win outright)
Projected Score: 49ers 29, Cardinals 17
Brock Purdy over 0.5 INTs (+219): Purdy has yet to throw an interception this season, but it's not as though there haven't been opportunities. The 49ers quarterback has had four tipped passes this season, tied for third most in the NFL entering Week 4. He threw four interceptions on 170 attempts in 2022. As for the Cardinals, they are one of just four teams that have recorded an interception in every game this season.
Over/Under: 45.9 (6th highest)
Win Probability: 49ers 89% (Highest)
Kansas City Chiefs -9 @ New York Jets
MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey
Sunday 8:20 p.m. ET
Money Line: Kansas City Chiefs (-430) ; New York Jets (+328)
Total: 41.5; Opened: 41
FPI favorite: Chiefs by 9 (74.2% to win outright)
Line Movement Alert: Opened Chiefs -7
Projected Score: Chiefs 26, Jets 16
Garrett Wilson anytime TD (+235): The Jets have scored only three touchdowns this season, although in their defense, the schedule -- Bills, Patriots, Cowboys -- has been brutal. Still, two of those scores have come from Wilson. In fact, the 2022 first-round pick has accounted for a team-high 19% of the Jets' offensive touchdowns since entering the league. The Chiefs' defense has allowed just three scrimmage touchdowns this season. However, dating back to the start of last season, Kansas City has allowed the most passing scores (35) in the NFL. Wilson's talent level makes this intriguing at generous plus money.
Zach Wilson over 177.5 pass yards (-120): Wilson has yet to eclipse 177 passing yards this season, but he is going against a Chiefs defense that has allowed 177-plus passing yards to 16 out of 20 starting quarterbacks since the start of last season. Only one of those four "unders" was a road game, with the Chiefs allowing an average of 231.7 pass yards per game on the road over that span.
Over/Under: 41.7 (11th highest)
Win Probability: Chiefs 81% (4th highest)
Seattle Seahawks -1 @ New York Giants
MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey
Monday 8:15 p.m. ET
Money Line: Seattle Seahawks (-120) ; New York Giants (+100)
Total: 47; Opened: 44.5
FPI favorite: Seahawks by 2.5 (57.2% to win outright)
Line Movement Alert: Opened Giants -1
Projected Score: Seahawks 26, Giants 22
Kenneth Walker III anytime TD (+112): Walker has scored four touchdowns in three games this season and has now found the end zone 14 times in his 19 career games (with 13 TDs in 15 games as the lead back). He leads the entire NFL in expected TDs (4.0) and carries inside the 5 (6). Walker deferred some additional work to rookie Zach Charbonnet last week, but he still handled 18 carries and four targets, which brings him to 15.7 carries and 3.7 targets per game in 2023. The Giants have already allowed four RB scores this season, including at least one in all three games.
Over/Under: 48.6 (3rd highest)
Win Probability: Seahawks 64% (7th highest)