The Playbook, Week 4: 49ers, Eagles among most likely to win

Welcome to the Week 4 Fantasy Football Playbook, which kicked off on Thursday night with the Lions at the Packers.

This column features score projections, over/unders, win probabilities and, of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for season-long and DFS leagues. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision-making, including sit/start decisions, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices.

The advice is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with relatively standard scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 Flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST), although I'll often mention "shallow" or "deep" leagues for some starters. The charts show all players who have been projected for at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/STs. "Matchup" is automatically determined using a proprietary metric that factors in raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed to each position by the opposing defense this season.

(Editor's note: Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player might be ranked slightly higher or lower because of other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to possible updates during the weekend, although at the very minimum, rankings will be updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff. Lines courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise indicated.)

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Atlanta Falcons @ Jacksonville Jaguars -3

Lineup locks: Bijan Robinson, Travis Etienne Jr., Calvin Ridley, Evan Engram

• Trevor Lawrence has fallen out of the "lineup lock" mix after another dud in Week 3. Lawrence sits 18th in fantasy points, and his best weekly finish was eighth back in Week 1. Jacksonville ranks 31st in offensive EPA, which helps explain why Lawrence has just three passing touchdowns and zero rushing scores through three games.

• Drake London has posted receiving lines of 0-0-0, 6-67-1 and 2-31-0 on a total of 15 targets this season. That's obviously not going to cut it. The second-year receiver can't be trusted as a fantasy starter in the Falcons' woeful passing attack.

Over/Under: 40.4 (12th highest)
Win Probability: Jaguars 55% (13th highest)

Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills -2.5

Lineup locks: Josh Allen, James Cook, Raheem Mostert, Tyreek Hill, Stefon Diggs, Jaylen Waddle

• We're calling Mostert, No. 1 in RB, a lineup lock because of his larger body of work this season, but you'd be hard-pressed to bench De'Von Achane after his 233-yard, 4-TD outing in Week 3. (Mostert had 142 yards and four touchdowns.) Achane played on 42% of snaps in Miami's 70-20 win but had 22 touches to Mostert's 20. A return to earth is a near lock with a good Bills defense on tap, but both Miami backs are viable starters.

• Tua Tagovailoa posted 27-plus fantasy points against both the Chargers and Broncos but was limited to only 12 points against the Patriots back in Week 2. That dip against a good defense is notable, especially when combined with the fact that Tagovailoa is averaging 15.0 fantasy PPG in four career full games against Buffalo. Tagovailoa is a good bet to come back to earth this week, but the Miami offense's elite efficiency means he's still a fringe QB1 play.

Over/Under: 51.4 (2nd highest)
Win Probability: Bills 52% (14th highest)

Minnesota Vikings -4 @ Carolina Panthers

Lineup locks: Miles Sanders, Alexander Mattison, Justin Jefferson, T.J. Hockenson

• Revenge game! Adam Thielen is arguably a lineup lock after the 33-year-old receiver posted an 11-145-1 line on 14 targets last week. Thielen has had a target share of at least 25% in both of the past two weeks and is up to ninth in WR fantasy points for the season. He has a good matchup this week against a struggling Minnesota pass defense.

Over/Under: 43.2 (9th highest)
Win Probability: Vikings 58% (9th highest)

Denver Broncos -3.5 @ Chicago Bears

Lineup locks: Justin Fields, Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy

• Fields hasn't played like a lineup lock this season (zero top-15 fantasy weeks), but I don't know how we can sit him this week against a Denver defense that just allowed 70 points to Miami. Denver has allowed 380 fantasy points and nine passing scores (both league highs). The good matchup and Fields' rushing ability is enough to consider him as a starting option.

• DJ Moore can't be considered a lineup lock after posting just the 42nd-most WR fantasy points through three weeks. Moore followed a dud in Week 1 with a solid 16.4 points in Week 2, and then nearly had another major dud in Week 3 prior to a garbage-time TD grab. Moore's 29% target share over the past two weeks plus a terrific matchup against Denver's aforementioned struggling defense is enough to keep him in the WR3 discussion.

• Javonte Williams is operating as the Broncos' lead back, but the role has yet to allow any double-digit fantasy showings. Williams has seen his carry total dip in both of the past two weeks, he's yet to find the end zone, and he has a total of just six targets over his past two games (after seeing six in Week 1). Williams is deferring a lot of work to Samaje Perine, so he's no more than a flex option.

Over/Under: 46.6 (4th highest)
Win Probability: Bears 55% (12th highest)

Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns -3

Lineup locks: Lamar Jackson, Amari Cooper, Mark Andrews

• Zay Flowers has seen a massive 30% target share this season, albeit with Odell Beckham Jr. missing a game-plus of action due to injury. Flowers has two games with 10 targets (including Week 3), but has seen his yardage total dip each game and has yet to find the end zone. The impressive rookie is a flex option in an extremely tough matchup against a Browns defense allowing the fewest WR fantasy points.

• Jerome Ford soaked up 10 carries and three targets on 37 snaps in his first start in place of the injured Nick Chubb. Ford ran 23 routes, whereas his runningmates, Kareem Hunt and Pierre Strong Jr., combined for only six. Hunt is going to be involved, but Ford is the lead back, which should keep him in the weekly RB2 mix.

Over/Under: 38.7 (14th highest)
Win Probability: Browns 58% (10th highest)

Pittsburgh Steelers -3 @ Houston Texans

Lineup locks: George Pickens

• Dameon Pierce found the end zone in Week 3, but he was held below 40 rushing yards for the third straight game and has yet to clear three targets in any contest. Pierce, who now has one top-40 fantasy week this season, has been limited to playing half the snaps in all three games. He's in the RB2 discussion this week against a Steelers defense that has allowed the second-most RB rush yards (and 5.5 yards per carry) this season.

• The Steelers' backfield has a great matchup this week, but it's tough to trust either Najee Harris or Jaylen Warren. Harris has yet to clear 6.5 fantasy points in any game, and while he had a healthy 19 carries in Week 3, he was limited to just one target, bringing him to only six on the season. Warren has been in the 8-11 touch range in all three games, which has limited him to 9.2 fantasy PPG.

• Tank Dell and Nico Collins are both top-20 fantasy wideouts this season. Dell has produced a 12-217-2 line on a team-high 17 targets over the past two weeks, whereas Collins has produced a pair of top-25 fantasy outings and is averaging 7.7 targets per game -- even after a three-target dud in Week 3. The Steelers' defense is good but has already allowed 32-plus-point games to both Davante Adams and Brandon Aiyuk. Dell and Collins are WR3 options in Week 4.

Over/Under: 39.7 (13th highest)
Win Probability: Steelers 57% (11th highest)

Los Angeles Rams @ Indianapolis Colts -1

Lineup locks: Anthony Richardson, Kyren Williams, Zack Moss, Michael Pittman Jr., Puka Nacua

• Tutu Atwell is up to 14th in WR fantasy points and 12th in yards after another solid showing in Week 3. Atwell has produced 15-18 fantasy points in all three games and is handling a strong 22% target share. With Cooper Kupp out for at least one more week, Atwell remains in the WR3 mix in a plus matchup against the Colts.

• Josh Downs caught 8 of 12 targets in Week 3 and is now among the top 25 receivers in receptions and targets. The rookie's heavy usage as a short-range target hasn't led to much box-score production, however, as he's totaled only 124 yards and zero touchdowns. Indianapolis' slot receiver isn't quite on the flex radar yet.

Over/Under: 42.7 (10th highest)
Win Probability: Colts 50% (16th highest)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints -3

Lineup locks: Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave, Mike Evans

• Rachaad White has struggled in the efficiency department (3.1 yards per carry), but the second-year back is seeing a ton of volume (fourth in RB touches). That usage has allowed one strong fantasy outing (21 points in Week 2), but he bookended that one with a pair of duds. White has another tough matchup this week -- only Derrick Henry (13.9) has cleared 10 fantasy points against the Saints this season -- so he's best valued as a fringe RB2.

• Chris Godwin is off to a slow start this season, having yet to clear either 58 yards or 10.8 fantasy points in a single game. His 21% target share is similar to recent seasons, but Tampa Bay's massive (and expected) dip in passing volume has led to a decline from his 9.5 targets per game in 2022 to just 6.3 per game in 2023. That number needs to rise, but it may be difficult this week considering Evans' historical struggles against Marshon Lattimore shadow coverage. Consider Godwin to be a WR3.

• Michael Thomas has seen seven-plus targets in all three games this season and has at least five catches in all six of the games he's played since the start of 2022. Thomas has produced between 49-65 yards in all six of those outings, though he hasn't found the end zone yet in 2023. Thomas' workload is enough to keep him in the flex mix against Tampa Bay.

Over/Under: 36.5 (15th highest)
Win Probability: Saints 63% (8th highest)

Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles -8

Lineup locks: Jalen Hurts, D'Andre Swift, DeVonta Smith, A.J. Brown, Dallas Goedert

• Swift is a lineup lock after establishing himself as the Eagles' lead back on Monday night. Swift posted a 16-130-0 rushing line after he delivered 28-175-1 in Week 2. Swift ended up playing on "only" 54% of snaps, but that rate was much higher in the first half, with Kenneth Gainwell (46%) soaking up most of his touches when the Eagles were protecting a two-score lead in the second half.

• Brian Robinson Jr.'s predictable crash back to earth in Week 3 was worse than expected. The Commanders' lead back ran well (7.0 yards per carry), but was limited to just 10 carries and zero targets on 19 snaps. Game script may again be an issue this week as Washington is the underdog against an Eagles defense that has allowed the fewest RB fantasy points through three weeks. Robinson is no more than a flex.

• Terry McLaurin had another underwhelming fantasy showing in Week 3, and he's now been held to six or fewer targets in seven consecutive games. He'll draw the Darius Slay shadow this week, and while he had success against Slay in 2022, McLaurin's limited volume means he's no more than a WR3/flex. Jahan Dotson, meanwhile, is a sneaky bet for a big day with unproven Josh Jobe set to defend him often this week.

Over/Under: 44.6 (8th highest)
Win Probability: Eagles 85% (2nd highest)

Cincinnati Bengals -2 @ Tennessee Titans

Lineup locks: Joe Burrow, Derrick Henry, Joe Mixon, Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins

• Henry should remain locked into lineups for now, but his dwindling playing time is a concern. For the season, Henry has a 91-80 snap and a 51-15 carry edge on Tyjae Spears but trails the rookie 39-31 in routes and 10-7 in targets. Henry sits 18th in fantasy points but has no top-12 outings.

• It's tough to consider DeAndre Hopkins a lineup lock after yet another dud in Week 3. The veteran receiver came out strong with a 7-65-0 receiving line on 13 targets in Week 1 but has since posted lines of just 4-40-0 and 3-48-0 on a total of 12 targets. Hopkins is set for a tough matchup against a Bengals defense that has kept opposing No. 1 receivers in check this season (Cooper, Flowers and Nacua all posted fewer than 12.5 fantasy points against them). Consider Hopkins as a WR3.

Over/Under: 45 (7th highest)
Win Probability: Bengals 64% (6th highest)

Las Vegas Raiders @ Los Angeles Chargers -5.5

Lineup locks: Justin Herbert, Austin Ekeler, Josh Jacobs, Davante Adams, Keenan Allen, Jakobi Meyers

• Mike Williams (ACL) is done for the season. After his departure from Sunday's win, the Chargers leaned on more multiple-TE sets, and the WR routes were as follows: Allen 9, Joshua Palmer 9, Quentin Johnston 3, Derius Davis 1. Palmer is back in a full-time role, which we saw quite a bit last season. During Weeks 1-13, he averaged 8.0 targets per game and was ranked 29th in WR fantasy points. He is a flex option in a good matchup this week. First-round rookie Johnston will play a larger role but should be on benches.

• In two games with Ekeler sidelined, Joshua Kelley has totaled 51 yards on 24 carries and 5 yards on two targets. Especially after a big letdown in Minnesota, Kelley will be hard to trust as anything more than a flex if Ekeler remains sidelined this week.

Over/Under: 53.1 (Highest)
Win Probability: Chargers 81% (3rd highest)

New England Patriots @ Dallas Cowboys -6.5

Lineup locks: Tony Pollard, Rhamondre Stevenson, CeeDee Lamb

• Dak Prescott is way down the ranks this week. The veteran quarterback disappointed in a smash spot against Arizona last week, and his best weekly fantasy finish is only 17th. Prescott has three TD passes in three games, has yet to clear 255 passing yards in a single outing and remains a borderline nonfactor with his legs (44 yards). He shouldn't be in lineups against a Patriots defense that held Hurts and Tagovailoa (OK, yes, and Zach Wilson) below 13.0 fantasy points.

Over/Under: 36.2 (16th highest)
Win Probability: Cowboys 69% (5th highest)

Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers -14

Lineup locks: Christian McCaffrey, James Conner, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle

• Marquise Brown is off to a solid start to 2023 despite the absence of Kyler Murray. Brown has been in the 54-61 yard range in all three games and has scored in two straight contests. Brown has seen 17 targets over the last two weeks and is handling a career-high 28% target share on the season. Brown can be valued as a WR3 against the 49ers.

Over/Under: 45.9 (6th highest)
Win Probability: 49ers 89% (Highest)

Kansas City Chiefs -9.5 @ New York Jets

Lineup locks: Patrick Mahomes, Isiah Pacheco, Garrett Wilson, Travis Kelce

• Breece Hall enjoyed season highs in snap share (48%) and carries (12) in Week 3, but it didn't translate to much fantasy production. Hall was limited to 27 yards on 13 touches and now has 36 yards on 17 touches since his 147-yard effort in Week 1. The uptick in usage is a promising sign, but he's not yet in a feature role, and the Jets' offensive struggles will continue to limit his fantasy upside. Hall is no more than a flex.

Over/Under: 41.7 (11th highest)
Win Probability: Chiefs 81% (4th highest)

Seattle Seahawks @ New York Giants

Lineup locks: Kenneth Walker III, DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Darren Waller

• With Saquon Barkley out in Week 3, it was Matt Breida who led the Giants' backfield. The veteran back played on 80% of snaps but was limited to a mere four carries and three targets. Gary Brightwell matched him with four carries and three targets but played on only 20% of snaps. If Barkley remains out, Breida will be no more than a desperation flex against Seattle.

• The best weekly fantasy outing by any Giants receiver this season was a 14.0-point effort by Isaiah Hodgins in Week 2. Hodgins, Darius Slayton, Parris Campbell, Jalin Hyatt, Wan'Dale Robinson and Sterling Shepard are all getting run for New York, and -- even in a good matchup -- none can be trusted in lineups.

Over/Under: 48.6 (3rd highest)
Win Probability: Seahawks 64% (7th highest)