Players hit their peak at different ages.
Wayne Gretzky achieved over half of his career scoring -- and all but one of his 50-goal seasons -- by age 26, Phil Esposito accomplished every single one of his 100-point seasons from ages 26 through 32, John Bucyk doubled his career scoring totals after age 33, and at age 40, Gordie Howe was one of the three players to first break the 100-point barrier in 1968-69. Who are the best players at each age today?
To answer this question much as we did in 2013-14 and 2014-15, we're going to use a variety of statistics to establish each player's offensive, defensive and goaltending performance and place them into context so that they can be compared.
Even with all of these numbers floating around, there is still a fair deal of interpretation to pack into a single paragraph, so ultimately these choices can be considered a single perspective -- and wide open to other viewpoints.
We'll start with ages 18 through 23 in this story, continue with ages 24 through 29 next week, and those aged 30 and up in the final piece.
Age 18
Patrik Laine, RW, Winnipeg Jets
Laine is not just the best 18-year-old player in the NHL today; he may be one of the most dangerous ever.
With 23 goals in 47 games, Laine is poised to become only the ninth player to score 30 goals at this age in NHL history, and he's even within striking distance of Dale Hawerchuk, who set the 18-year-old record with 45 goals for the original Winnipeg Jets, in 1981-82.
Laine is admittedly not yet a complete player, and he has enjoyed his fair share of the bounces. The Jets have been outshot 618-557 when he's on the ice, for an SAT of minus-61 that's third-lowest on the team. His success is based on Winnipeg's 12.2 shooting percentage when he's on the ice at even strength, which ranks seventh in the NHL among those to play at least 20 games.
But, there are only four 18-year-olds in the NHL, and very few players in history have ever developed the offensive side of their game to such a great extent this early.
Age 19
Auston Matthews, C, Toronto Maple Leafs
In what may be the start of a great rivalry, Matthews was selected No. 1 at the 2016 NHL draft, right before Laine.
Like his rival, Matthews has some historic goals within reach. For example, his 172 shots in 50 games works out to 3.44 shots per game, which ranks fifth among 19-year-olds since the statistic was first recorded in 1967-68, putting him behind only Hawerchuk, Bobby Orr, Steven Stamkos and Wayne Gretzky. That's good company!
At even strength, Matthews has scored 20 goals in 50 games, which is on pace for 33 goals in 82 games. That puts him within striking distance of the 37 goals that Gretzky scored in 1979-80, which is the most for a 19-year-old player.
Matthews has also developed certain aspects of his game to a greater extent than Laine. In similar usage, Matthews has helped Toronto outshoot its opponents 748-689 when he has been on the ice, for an SAT of plus-59 that ranks third on the Maple Leafs.
Honorable mention: Zach Werenski
Age 20
Connor McDavid, Edmonton Oilers
Is there any player more valuable than McDavid this season? Matthew Coller explored that question earlier this week, and the answer was no.
The Oilers rely heavily on their new captain, whose average even-strength ice time of 17 minutes, 22 seconds per game ranks second among NHL forwards to Chicago's Patrick Kane, at 17:58. The Oilers may have drafted a lot of great players recently, but none of them have had nearly the same impact as McDavid.
With eight more points, the Oilers will have already matched their best total since 2008-09. They have a points percentage at .600 or above for the first time since Gretzky was still in town in 1987-88, and could win the division for the first time since 1986-87. The Oilers may have revamped their blue line and added veterans like Milan Lucic, but it's fair to say that McDavid was responsible for the bulk of this stunning success.
This may be the easiest selection on the entire list, because the NHL's scoring leader may soon be the best player at any age.
Age 21
Nathan MacKinnon, C, Colorado Avalanche
MacKinnon is being outscored 47 points to 34 by Edmonton's Leon Draisaitl, but his mark is enough to lead the struggling Avalanche in scoring. Given that he has more shots than Draisaitl, 167 to 120, it's possible that he would be the one lighting the lamp if he had McDavid helping him to the same 16.7 shooting percentage, instead of his lowly 7.2 percent in Colorado.
MacKinnon is also a more complete player than Draisaitl, and he has defensive responsibilities that far exceed most players his age, as demonstrated by his average of 1:58 minutes killing penalties per game, and the following player usage chart:
The 10 highest-scoring 21-year-old players were placed on a player usage chart using the interactive tool available at Hockey Abstract. The horizontal axis demonstrates that MacKinnon has responsibilities in both zones, and the vertical axis clearly reveals that he takes on top-line opponents to a far greater extent than anybody else. Finally, the shaded blue circle indicates the significant boost he gives his team, in terms of shot-based metrics.
In the world of hockey statistics, opportunity and context are everything. Draisaitl may be piling up the points right now, but MacKinnon is still the better player overall.
Honorable mention: Leon Draisaitl
Age 22
Seth Jones, D, Columbus Blue Jackets
There are a number of reasons why the Blue Jackets improved from 27th in the NHL standings in 2015-16 to third this season, and one of them can be traced back to Jan. 6, 2016, when they boldly acquired Seth Jones from the Nashville Predators for Ryan Johansen. Joined this season by rookie Zach Werenski, Jones has provided Columbus with its best top pairing in franchise history -- not that the bar was set particularly high.
Jones is at the age at which defensemen really start making their presence felt. There's no single metric that can help measure success on the blue line, but several statistics can start to paint a picture when used together:
Comparing him to the other top options at the same age, Jones is the only top-four defenseman who can score, kill penalties and move the needle from a shot-based perspective. Overall, his 19:44 of even-strength ice time per game ranks 11th in the NHL, his 23 points at even strength is tied for fifth among all defensemen, and he's one of his team's top choices in each manpower situation.
Acquiring Jones may have been the best trade in franchise history -- again, not that the bar was set particularly high.
Honorable mention: Matt Murray
Age 23
Nikita Kucherov, C, Tampa Bay Lightning
Of the various offensive weapons in the NHL at age 23, Kucherov has been the most dangerous. During the past three seasons combined, he ranks 14th in the NHL overall with 78 goals, and 17th with 178 points. That leads his age group, ahead of Calgary's Johnny Gaudreau, who has 65 goals and 177 points, and Winnipeg's Mark Scheifele, who has 69 goals and 163 points.
In addition to his slightly higher scoring, Kucherov ranks fifth since 2013-14 with a plus-52 rating. Plus/minus may not be the most illuminating statistic, because it can be influenced by so many factors, like a player's team, his linemates, his playing conditions, his ice time, and a lot of luck. But in Kucherov's case, it accurately demonstrates how valuable he has been to the Lightning.
Using shot-based metrics instead, the Lightning have outshot their opponents 2,749-2,253 with Kucherov on the ice during this time span, for an SAT of plus-496 that ranks 34th in the NHL.
In relative terms, Kucherov has boosted Tampa Bay's share of shot attempts from 51.2 percent to 55.0 percent, which is a 3.8 percentage point increase. That compares favorably to 2.2 for Gaudreau, who has boosted Calgary from 46.6 to 48.8 percent, and 1.7 for Scheifele, who has boosted Winnipeg from 50.7 to 52.4 percent. That's another example of why Kucherov sits atop a tight pack.
Honorable mentions: Johnny Gaudreau, Mark Scheifele