Hockey analytics pioneer Rob Vollman is ESPN Insider's armchair GM this season, exploring how modern statistics can inform front-office decisions.
Hockey players peak at different times. Wayne Gretzky achieved more than half of his career scoring -- and all but one of his 50-goal seasons -- by age 26, while Phil Esposito earned every single one of his 100-point seasons from ages 26 through 32 and John Bucyk doubled his career scoring totals after age 33. At age 40, Gordie Howe was one of the three players to first break the 100-point barrier, in 1968-69. Who are the most valuable players at each age today?
To answer this question -- as Neil Greenberg did last season -- I'm going to use a variety of hockey analytics to help me establish the context of each player's usage, to compare skaters to goalies, and offensive contributions to defensive play. Unless stated otherwise, my primary data source for non-traditional statistics is Behind the Net, and we are considering players' current ages as of Feb. 1.
Since I'm essentially approaching this from the perspective of which players front offices should be trying to retain or pursue, a player's past, current and expected future performance will be considered. Contractual matters are not weighed heavily, largely because it's my view that when players are this good, they should get paid whatever it takes to get and keep them in a friendly uniform.
Even with all these numbers floating around, there is still a fair deal of interpretation to pack into each age group, and I'm open to see who you'd suggest in certain spots -- use the comments section below, or the Twitter hashtag #NHLAgeMVPs to join the conversation.
Note: In each case, we've listed the player who won for that same group of players on last year's list; for example, Erik Karlsson was the top 23-year-old on last year's list, but he is now the top 24-year-old on this year's list.
18 years old
Aaron Ekblad, D, Florida Panthers
Ekblad leads all rookie defensemen in scoring thanks to very careful usage from new Florida bench boss Gerard Gallant. The first overall selection in the 2014 NHL draft is being paired up with superstar Brian Campbell, a unit that is deployed primarily in the offensive zone, and against secondary competition. Ekblad, who beat the Feb. 1 cutoff by just six days, had to beat out the league's only other 18-year-old (Boston's David Pastrnak) to become the first and easiest selection on this list.
19 years old
Nathan MacKinnon, C, Colorado Avalanche
Another easy decision is MacKinnon, who leads all 19-year-olds in every statistical category imaginable -- and by a wide margin. Of particular appeal is the heavy volume of pucks the Halifax-born star puts on net: MacKinnon has almost three times as many career shots as any other NHL teenager and is currently outshooting every other Avalanche player for the second season in a row.
The NHL's No. 1 overall selection in 2013 typically plays with team captain Gabriel Landeskog on his left side in a balanced top-six role and won the Calder award last year after leading all rookies with 24 goals, 39 assists and 63 points. The latter total was the 11th-highest in NHL history for an 18-year-old.
Last year: Valeri Nichushkin
Honorable mention: Aleksander Barkov
20 years old
Alex Galchenyuk, C, Montreal Canadiens
Of the league's handful of high-scoring 20-year-olds, Galchenyuk has the most potential for future production. To help compare defensemen with forwards, the following chart places their career even-strength scoring rate on a comparable scale of six points for every 10 by a forward.
Why select Galchenyuk over comparably high-scoring forwards such as Nashville's Filip Forsberg and Calgary's Sean Monahan or more-difficult-to-find defensemen such as Winnipeg's Jacob Trouba or Pittsburgh's Olli Maatta? In my view, Galchenyuk's stronger possession numbers against top-six competition is the tie breaker, along with the incredible upside potential his overall statistics suggest. Using Hockey Reference's Point Shares catch-all statistic, for example, Greenberg (now with the Washington Post) recently concluded that Galchenyuk was the "top franchise forward if holding an open draft today."
I wouldn't go quite that far, but I do agree that he's the most promising young talent of this age group.
Last year: Jacob Trouba
21 years old
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, C, Edmonton Oilers
Nugent-Hopkins is Edmonton's "most complete player," according to Bruce McCurdy of the Edmonton Journal. His argument is based on the fact that Nugent-Hopkins works both the power play and the penalty kill, centers the team's top two-way line, is just behind Jordan Eberle for the team lead with 12 goals and 31 points, and is the only forward on the team averaging more than 20 minutes of ice time per game. In contrast to Nugent-Hopkins' 21:16 per game, fellow 21-year-olds Johnny Gaudreau, Nikita Kucherov and Ryan Strome each play 17:00, 14:52, and 14:51 per game, respectively.
The following player usage chart allows us to compare Nugent-Hopkins' value with his most prominent 21-year-old peers throughout the NHL. While he certainly enjoys the advantage of being used in an offensive-minded capacity (the horizontal axis), he also faces top competition (vertical axis) and still manages to drive the team's possession (the sized, shaded bubbles).
Nugent-Hopkins was drafted first overall in 2011 and was the runner-up for the Calder after tying Gabriel Landeskog for the rookie scoring lead with 52 points in 2011-12. He is beginning to realize his full potential this season, and the best is yet to come.
Last year: Jonas Brodin
Honorable mention: Dougie Hamilton
22 years old
Gabriel Landeskog, LW, Colorado Avalanche
If you took the best statistical elements of every 22-year-old and combined them into a single player, you'd basically get Landeskog, Colorado's smart, strong, two-way team leader.
During the past three seasons combined, Landeskog leads this age group in shots, assists and penalty minutes and trails only Columbus' Ryan Johansen in total points and average scoring rate. He is one back of L.A.'s Tyler Toffoli with three short-handed goals and trails only Carolina defenseman Justin Faulk in total ice time.
In terms of usage, only Philadelphia's Sean Couturier faces a higher average quality of competition, and yet only Montreal's Brendan Gallagher and Ottawa's Mark Stone have better possession numbers. Only a Frankenstein monster created from the best of these six players could compete with Landeskog.
Colorado was very wise in locking down their captain and 2011-12 Calder trophy winner to a seven-year deal with an attractive annual cap hit that barely exceeds $5.5 million.
Last year: Gabriel Landeskog
Honorable mention: Ryan Johansen
23 years old
Selecting Seguin as the league's best 23-year-old for this list might be a tough decision, but it's without the same impact as the one that led to Edmonton selecting Taylor Hall ahead of him in the 2010 NHL draft, or the one that led to the Boston Bruins trading him to Dallas three years later.
Seguin, who turned 23 the day before the age cutoff, is already almost unparalleled offensively. The former OHL scoring leader is currently second in the NHL, with 28 goals and 56 points. Last season, Seguin finished fourth in scoring and sixth in Hart Trophy voting and was largely to credit for the Stars' qualifying for the playoffs for the first time since 2007-08.
He isn't weak defensively, and actually received some Selke Trophy consideration his final two seasons in Boston, but Seguin didn't fully blossom until he was in Dallas and focused more exclusively on scoring. He currently leads the team's forwards by more than a minute in even-strength ice time per game (15:40) and tops the team by averaging 3:55 per game on the power play. As for his possession numbers, they are second in his age group to Vladimir Tarasenko of the St. Louis Blues. Maybe this choice wasn't that difficult after all.
Last year: Tyler Seguin
Honorable mentions: Taylor Hall, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Ryan O'Reilly