Considering the way the 2020-21 NHL season has gone -- or more accurately hasn't gone -- we have to look at all prospects and young players like we're grading on a curve. Many of these players have never gone this long between games in their entire playing careers. Some are closing in on their 10th straight month without any sort of competitive hockey. That's not conducive to development.
But with the expectation that we'll have an NHL season, there are opportunities for prospects to elbow their way into lineups. Because the flat salary cap is at a figure lower than pre-pandemic projections suggested, many teams are at or very near the cap ceiling. With the trade market frozen, teams can look within their own systems, using the low-dollar contracts of pipeline prospects to stay under the cap number.
One of the other factors at play is the uncertainty of when farm teams will be able to resume play. While the NHL is set to start in mid-January, it's not as clear a path forward for the AHL and ECHL, the latter of which has already had a number of teams opt out of the upcoming season. The lack of places to put prospects to allow them to continue to develop might force some teams to give longer looks at the NHL level.
Regardless, given the nature of this season, this isn't the traditional make-or-break kind of situation. More than anything, this is a chance to look at some prospects who have been in systems for a few years and are staring down one of their best opportunities to not only make the NHL roster, but also find a full-time job there. Here are six young players who need to make the most of those chances and take the next step in 2020-21.
Eeli Tolvanen, RW, Nashville Predators
Tolvanen was on this list last year, too. As I noted then, it was more about reestablishing himself within the organization and making sure he gets his development on track toward the NHL. To be fair, he increased his goal totals slightly in 2019-20 and progressed enough to suggest he can still be on the NHL track.
At the moment, Tolvanen, 21, is in his native Finland, on loan to the KHL's Jokerit club. That's where Tolvanen had his magical 2017-18 season, when he established a new high for under-19 players in the KHL with 36 points in 49 games. He's averaging about half a point per game in his current tour with Jokerit, a little below expectations given how he torched the league two years ago. Expectations, however, have been recalibrated, as Tolvanen's status has gone from blue chip to project.
There are lessons to be learned about the importance of patience when it comes to prospects like Tolvanen. Look at Denis Gurianov of the Dallas Stars. Gurianov was on this list last year, too, and it's safe to say he "made" it, scoring 20 goals with Dallas during the regular season and 17 points in 27 games during a run to the Stanley Cup Final. It's not a one-to-one comparison -- they are a little different in style and body type, and their paths were a little different. But Gurianov was a highly touted prospect, he was picked 12th overall in 2015 and his first three seasons after his draft were average to below average. Then he had a breakout in his third full AHL season, when his body and hockey sense caught up to his skill level.
Tolvanen, meanwhile, seemingly supercharged his NHL timeline with that explosive KHL season immediately following his draft year -- he was a first-rounder in 2017 -- but development is not always linear. Gurianov is a great example of that.
Should the Preds recall Tolvanen from his KHL loan, there are roster spots for the taking. Given the uncertainty of the AHL season, and the fact that the Preds are still trying to figure out how to replace Craig Smith, Nick Bonino and Mikael Granlund, Tolvanen should be given a chance to see if he can fill a void. It will be up to him to seize the opportunity as he enters the last year of his entry-level contract.
Cal Foote, D, Tampa Bay Lightning
The defending Stanley Cup champs have a wide-open spot on the right side of their blue line. Foote, the No. 14 overall pick in 2017, has been patient and followed the Lightning's tried-and-true model of recent years. After two strong seasons in the AHL -- where he showed he can defend, move pucks and help out on the score sheet -- it seems like now is the time for Foote to step into the spot the Lightning have kept warm for him.
Tampa Bay moved some prospects around during the quest for the Cup but managed to hold on to Foote, who turns 22 next week. With a real cap crunch that the Lightning have to navigate, they are going to be in desperate need of players on low-dollar contracts to give them meaningful games this season.
Jake Bean, D, Carolina Hurricanes
It's not really Bean's fault he hasn't established himself in the NHL yet. The Hurricanes have built an incredible blue line anchored by Jaccob Slavin and Dougie Hamilton, and there's not a lot of room. But over the past two seasons, Bean has shown he's ready for an NHL opportunity.
In just 59 games last season, Bean posted 48 points to lead all AHL defensemen. He had over 40 points the year before, too, while helping the Charlotte Checkers win the Calder Cup. Having organizational depth on the blue line is valuable, but Bean needs to be playing games. If the NHL has expanded rosters for the shortened season, Carolina should find a way to get the 22-year-old former first-rounder (2016) some solid NHL minutes to keep progressing.
Alex Barre-Boulet, C, Tampa Bay Lightning
No player age-23 or younger has scored more points over the past two AHL seasons than Barre-Boulet (124). Signed as an undrafted free agent out of the QMJHL in 2018, Barre-Boulet looks poised to replace Tyler Johnson in the Tampa lineup as a much, much lower-cost option. Those savings are going to be really important to a team that still has to re-sign restricted free agents Anthony Cirelli and Erik Cernak.
Barre-Boulet has dynamic skill and plays a tenacious style that would allow him to fit in with a lineup that's plenty loaded. Doing so at a cap hit of just $759,258 is the added bonus. This is the last year of Barre-Boulet's entry-level deal, so Tampa Bay's cap crunch could afford the 23-year-old his best chance to make it to the NHL.
Logan Stanley, D, Winnipeg Jets
The Jets have seen a defensive group that was once their strength really dwindle in recent years following the departures of Jacob Trouba and Dustin Byfuglien. One replenishment option they could potentially turn to is the 6-foot-7 Stanley, who was picked 18th overall in 2016. As he enters the final year of his entry-level contract, there's seemingly no better time for him to stake his claim to a roster spot.
Stanley's past two seasons in the AHL have been up and down with the Manitoba Moose. He has had to prove he has the mobility to be able to use the rest of his skills, which include a good shot and a physical presence. He had just 10 points last season, but he is only 22 and has been a pro for just two seasons.
Still, with 2019 first-rounder Ville Heinola also angling for a spot, Stanley has to find a way to prevent himself from being edged out in Winnipeg.
Nick Merkley, RW, New Jersey Devils
The 23-year-old looked pretty good in the four games he got with the Devils last season after coming over in the Taylor Hall trade. Merkley has been a strong performer at the AHL level but has failed to make a lasting home in the NHL (just five games so far). Currently on loan in Finland, Merkley has looked stronger and is playing with a good pace, challenging defenders in the Liiga.
The Devils have a good amount of belief in him and took the steps necessary to make sure he's playing games to get himself ready to be on the NHL roster this season. It's all right in front of him. Only one player from the 2015 NHL draft's first round has played in fewer NHL games than Merkley (Bruins defenseman Jakub Zboril). The situation should change for Merkley this season.