Changes were coming. Pittsburgh Penguins general manager Jim Rutherford intimated as much during his end-of-season media conference after the team's disappointing qualification-round exit at the hands of the Montreal Canadiens. Toronto Maple Leafs GM Kyle Dubas hinted the same as his club licked its wounds from a disappointing ouster via the Columbus Blue Jackets.
They made good trade partners. As a result, Kasperi Kapanen -- drafted by Rutherford in 2014 and traded to acquire Phil Kessel in 2015 -- is going back to the Penguins as the Maple Leafs clear some needed cap space. The cost for Pittsburgh to acquire Kapanen and a package of other filler items? Awfully high.
The Penguins sent Toronto their first-round pick in 2020 (15th overall), AHL defenseman David Warsofsky, pending restricted free-agent forward Evan Rodrigues and Filip Hallander, one of the Penguins' top prospects in a shallow system. In addition to Kapanen, the Pens acquired NHL tweener Pontus Aberg -- who is committed to play in the KHL next season -- and Jesper Lindgren, a 23-year-old defenseman who remains a project and is expected to play in his native Sweden next season. In short, Pittsburgh paid a premium for a middle-six forward.
As long as the Penguins have Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Kris Letang, it makes sense for them to go for it every single year. You can't fault a GM for chasing a Stanley Cup. But the cupboards are largely bare beneath the NHL roster, and one day, possibly sooner than later, the Penguins will feel that sting. Let's take a closer look at how Pittsburgh reached this point, its seller's philosophy regarding draft picks and what's left in the prospect pool, along with what's next for a team hunting for another championship.
Draft pick currency
During the season, the Penguins sent former second-round pick Calen Addison, who was no worse than the team's No. 2 prospect at the time, to the Minnesota Wild as part of the deal to acquire winger Jason Zucker. That deal included a conditional first-round pick that would have gone directly to Minnesota for the upcoming 2020 draft had the Pens advanced out of the qualification round.
Instead, Pittsburgh had the choice to keep it and defer to 2021, which the team did in essence when it traded that same pick on Tuesday. Toronto now gets Pittsburgh's 2020 first-rounder, and Minnesota will get its first-round pick in the 2021 draft. That means the Pens aren't scheduled to have another first-round selection until 2022 at the earliest. To make matters worse, Pittsburgh does not have a 2020 selection until the third round.
The Round 1 pick has long been Rutherford's favorite trade chip since he came to Pittsburgh in 2014. In fact, the Kapanen deal is an odd full-circle moment for the prospect and his new GM. Kapanen, Rutherford's first Round 1 pick for the Pens, was one of the key pieces shipped to Toronto for Phil Kessel.
Of the six drafts Rutherford has overseen, the Penguins have been participants in the first round only twice, selecting Kapanen 22nd overall in 2014 and Samuel Poulin 21st overall in 2019. No other team has made fewer than four first-round selections in that span, according to ESPN Stats & Information. Draft picks, in general, have been much more valuable in Pittsburgh as trade currency than franchise building blocks. Rutherford has shipped out 28 picks in trades since he settled into the GM chair while acquiring 13 in various trades.
Between the 2014 and 2019 drafts, the Penguins have made 30 total selections. The only team that has made fewer picks is the Vegas Golden Knights, who have been part of only the 2017, 2018 and 2019 NHL drafts. Vegas made 28 selections in that span.
The return on investment
Among the key players acquired for first-round picks by Pittsburgh: Kapanen, Kessel, Ryan Reaves, Derick Brassard, Zucker and David Perron. The jury is still out on the impact Kapanen and Zucker will have, but Kessel was the only player who was part of the back-to-back Stanley Cups in 2016 and 2017. As an aside, the pick that the Penguins traded to the Edmonton Oilers to acquire Perron ended up being traded to the New York Islanders and was used in 2015 to select ... Mathew Barzal.
What of the picks the Pens did make? So far, only four of the 30 picks Pittsburgh made since 2014 have played games for the Penguins, with Dominik Simon and Sam Lafferty being the only full-timers this season. Kapanen, in a roundabout way, will make five when he debuts with the team next season after playing 202 NHL games with the Maple Leafs.
In fairness, the team used a 2021 sixth-round pick to acquire John Marino last summer in one of the rare instances in which the Penguins improved their prospect pool with a trade. The young defenseman surprised everyone this season by growing into one of the league's best rookie blueliners for an immediately valuable return on a low-risk investment.
The Penguins have also been fairly aggressive on the undrafted free-agent market in recent years, which is one way to supplement a shallow system but not often the best way to build sustained success. Conor Sheary joined the Pens on a minor-league deal before Rutherford signed him to an NHL deal in 2015. Zach Aston-Reese was another solid add via undrafted free agency, signing out of Northeastern University in 2017.
A quiet farm system
Unsurprisingly, the Penguins have the shallowest prospect pool in the NHL, and it has been that way for the past few years. Samuel Poulin, the club's 2019 first-rounder and current top prospect, is the lone blue chipper in the bunch, but there are a few others who should have NHL futures.
Poulin ascended to the top of the pool with a strong draft-plus-one season in the QMJHL this year. He showcased more power and added some precision to his puck skills. He could challenge for an NHL spot next season but is more likely at least a year away. He finished sixth in the QMJHL with 1.67 points per game and looks like he could be a handful on the wing, providing a good blend of edge and talent. There is still work to be done, but this season was an encouraging step for a player I had my doubts about during his draft year.
Addison and Hallander, a pair of 2018 second-rounders, were in the mix, too, before being traded. Addison looked like he might be the equivalent of a first-round pick despite falling to the Penguins at No. 53. He averaged better than a point per game in his third WHL season and was Canada's top-scoring defenseman for the gold-medal-winning team at the 2020 World Juniors. As a right-shot, offensive-minded defenseman, his skill set is especially needed in today's NHL, where speed and transition have become so important.
Hallander was picked five slots later and is an especially versatile forward. Having spent the past two seasons in Sweden's top pro league, the 20-year-old saw an increased role with Lulea during 2019-20. An injury prevented him from going to the World Juniors, where he would have had a big role for Sweden. His two-way capabilities likely would have put him on track to play a similar role as Kapanen in Pittsburgh's middle six within a few years.
Neither Addison nor Hallander was on the NHL doorstep, but they both look like they'll be in the league in the near future ... for different teams. What's left in the system behind Poulin?
Nathan Legare is a QMJHL sniper who impressed in Penguins training camp last season before being sent back to junior. He has goal-scoring upside. Valtteri Puustinen, the team's seventh-round choice in 2019, came out of nowhere to have a breakout season in Finland's top pro league in 2019-20, scoring 40 points. Those two have some intriguing upside. Other draft picks such as Justin Almeida, Kasper Bjorkqvist and Jordy Bellerive, along with undrafted free agents such as Sam Miletic, still have time to find their way.
The club has stayed aggressive in pursuing undrafted free agents in 2019-20, signing Drew O'Connor, a top scorer from Dartmouth, and Josh Maniscalco, a late-blooming, two-way defenseman from Arizona State.
Beyond that, there are some players who could jump up and be quality depth players at the NHL level, but there are a lot more who are unlikely to be significant impact prospects. The Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins, the club's AHL affiliate, was in the middle of the pack of the NHL's top farm league, thanks in large part to a reliance on minor league veterans, as opposed to bona fide NHL prospects.
The bottom line
Simply put, there isn't much help on the way -- at least not from a draft standpoint. Right now, the Penguins have only eight draft picks in the next two drafts, with the earliest pick being their 2021 second-rounder. That puts a bit of added pressure on the team's amateur scouts to mine a diamond against some pretty tall odds.
The Penguins are more than likely going to continue chasing Stanley Cups, and their fans are rightly going to cheer on the GM for doing that. Malkin, 34, is still averaging more than a point per game, and Crosby, 33, is still among the most talented hockey players in the world. Pittsburgh was still among the league's best rosters this season, turning in the seventh-best points percentage before the season was paused.
But the time is coming when things are going to start looking a little less rosy for the short term and particularly bleak for the future. The necessity of raising young talent to contribute on entry-level contracts amid a flat cap will only intensify. In the short term, the Pens just don't have many options to do that, and the limited options get more limited every time a Round 1 pick is moved.
Sending this year's first-rounder out of town hurts a bit more, given the quality of the top half of the 2020 draft class. In putting together my most recent mock draft (coming Thursday), I gave defensemen Kaiden Guhle to Pittsburgh at No. 15 before making changes following the trade. Guhle, a defenseman for Prince Albert in the WHL, is a phenomenal skater and a high-end defender who would have helped a blue-line prospect pool in dire need of some talent.
Then again, Crosby and Malkin probably aren't going anywhere anytime soon. As long as those two can hold a hockey stick, Pittsburgh isn't in too bad of a spot. Just avert your eyes when looking to the future.