Coming into the Stanley Cup Final, the Boston Bruins had an edge on the St. Louis Blues in just about every statistical category. You name it, it leaned toward the Bruins: power play, goaltending, scoring and more.
But the Blues did have one point of advantage, and that was in their defense depth. Through the first three games of the series, the Bruins were dominating the power play, but the Blues controlled play at 5-on-5. And Boston was getting quality shot attempts.
But in Game 4, the Blues forced the Bruins to take worse quality shots from the perimeter, which resulted in a series-tying win. And it could be what turns the series in their favor.
In Game 1, the Blues allowed half of their shot attempts against -- including shots wide of the goal -- to be square to the net, the best angle for the Bruins to tee off. St. Louis goalie Jordan Binnington faced 25 such shot attempts from the front of the net, compared with only 13 from sharp angles, per MoneyPuck.com. That number decreased as the series progressed before hitting a low of only eight in Game 4, accounting for 23.5 percent of all shot attempts.
Meanwhile, the Blues have forced the Bruins to take more shots farther to the side, with highs of 42 percent and 50 percent in their two wins. It seems simple, but when St. Louis takes away the middle of the ice, it is able to neutralize the scoring prowess of the Bruins.
The Blues also have made an effort to force the Bruins into more sharp-angle shots, as the average shot angle against the Blues has come from farther to the sides. If a shot straight in front of the net has an angle of 0 degrees, and a shot from the end boards with an angle of 90 degrees, the average Bruins shot was from a 25-degree angle in Game 1. But it stretched out to 35 degrees in Game 4.
Though Binnington has been strong coming off of losses to the tune of a 1.86 goals-against average, his success is helped by the Blues' strategy of funneling more shots to the outside. It shouldn't be shocking that the Blues' goalie, or any goalie, is better against lower-quality shots. But Binnington is 3 percentage points better against sharp-angle shots (.903) this series than straight-on opportunities (.873) in terms of save percentage, per MoneyPuck.
On the Bruins' end, you see this pressure affecting one player in particular: David Pastrnak. Boston's second-leading scorer in the regular season has managed only a goal and an assist in the Final.
The Bruins won Game 3 in a rout, but we saw the Blues try to obscure his looks. His lone goal came from right in front of the net off of a Torey Krug pass the defense could not get in front of.
And though he was held without a goal through the first two games, he generally had straight-up looks, though a bit far out from the net. In Games 3 and 4, he has had closer shots, but the trade-off is that they've been at worse angles.
Pinpoint passing to get rushes in close could be the Bruins' best option to get in front of the net. But the Blues have shown they can adjust to the Bruins' top line and dictate the defensive presence.
The Bruins had 10 high-danger chances in each of Games 1 and 2 but only four in their Game 4 loss, according to Natural Stat Trick. The Blues need to worry about that lethal power play and the penalties in this series, but the biggest thing they've done that gives them a fighting chance is to push Boston to the corners and force lower-quality shots. It will continue to be key in Game 5.