Looking ahead for the Sharks: Erik Karlsson a massive summer domino

As each NHL team is eliminated from playoff contention, we'll take a look at why its quest for the Stanley Cup fell short in 2018-19, along with three keys to its offseason, impact prospects for 2019-20 and a way-too-early prediction for what next season will hold.

What went wrong

Their luck ran out.

Oh, the San Jose Sharks had a good amount of it throughout this playoff run. Witness that infamous Game 7 comeback against the Vegas Golden Knights after Joe Pavelski's horrific injury, scoring four times on a botched five-minute major penalty for which the NHL would apologize. Witness the successful coach's challenge on a rarely called offside in Game 7 against the Colorado Avalanche, as a goal came off the board due to Gabriel Landeskog standing near the bench on a change. Witness Game 3 against the St. Louis Blues, when Erik Karlsson scored in overtime after a hand pass went undetected by the on-ice officials -- who, like the officials from the Vegas debacle, would not appear again in the postseason.

But the karma turned after that. The Blues outscored the Sharks 12-2 in winning three straight games to eliminate them. Injuries became the story: The ongoing groin issues for Karlsson took him out of most of the third period of Game 4; most of the second and all of the third period in Game 5, where he factored into two Blues' goals before departing; and all of Game 6. Also absent from Game 6 were Tomas Hertl and Pavelski, both injured in Game 5.

The Sharks are a deep team. But not that deep.

Saying that San Jose had a run of good fortune in the postseason isn't meant to diminish their accomplishments. They rallied from a 3-1 series deficit against Vegas, winning a Game 6 in double-overtime on the road, and won Game 7 in overtime. Their series win over Colorado came with Pavelski out of the lineup for six games. The battled the Blues until their tank hit "empty."

GM Doug Wilson meticulously constructed a roster of franchise stalwarts (Joe Thornton, Pavelski, Logan Couture, Hertl, Brent Burns, Marc-Edouard Vlasic), imported stars (Evander Kane, Karlsson and Gustav Nyquist) and a solid young supporting cast. It was a team that amassed 101 points in the regular season and scored the second most goals (289) in the NHL. It was a team that saw goalie Martin Jones have a mediocre regular season, start the playoffs losing three of four games, and then rebound with a series of solid efforts.

They were a team built to win the Stanley Cup this season. They won't. And now they're looking at an uncertain tomorrow.

Keys to the offseason

The future of the Joes. Pavelski turns 35 in July and is coming off a 38-goal season heading into unrestricted free agency. The assumption has been that he'll return, but at what term and what cap number? Thornton turns 40 in July, acts like he's 22 and plays like he's 34. He had 51 points in 73 games as his ice time dropped to its lowest amount since his sophomore season in Boston (1998-99!).

He'll return as long as he wants to play in San Jose (and the NHL), and the end doesn't seem near. Which is to say that when the sun explodes, all they'll find left on Earth are cockroaches, Twinkies and Joe Thornton playing center for the Sharks, if he wants it.

The future of Erik Karlsson. It was quite a ride for Erik Karlsson in San Jose. Injuries restricted him to 53 regular season games, but he posted 45 points in them and had some sterling possession numbers (such as a 7.6 percent Corsi relative to his teammates). There were times during the postseason when he started looking like Erik Karlsson again -- until groin problems seriously restricted his skating. Gone were the end-to-end rushes. Gone was the closing speed on defense. And soon, gone was Erik Karlsson from the postseason.

There was talk when he was acquired that the Sharks wanted to sign him to an eight-year extension, but it was still "wait and see" through the trade deadline. Scuttlebutt around the organization is that he likes the Sharks and the Bay Area, yet there has always been speculation that he could return back east -- the loudest chatter during the playoffs was a potential match with old friend Henrik Lundqvist and the New York Rangers. Needless to say, the 28-year-old remains the elite of the elite when he's healthy, and would be a foundational asset for the Sharks. But after the playoffs, his health can't be trusted or assumed.

Evaluate the goaltending. For all of the Sharks' tremendous numbers in the regular season, one negative number stood out: .889, which was their team save percentage, ranking the Sharks 31st in the league. It was the first time in 12 years that the team with the worst goaltending in the NHL made the playoffs. Jones showed what he's capable of in the playoffs -- or at least what he's capable of when his team swarms the zone around him and limits odd-man rushes. With a contract that runs through 2024 at $5.75 million annually, Jones should be back. Aaron Dell is signed through 2020 with just a $1.9 million cap hit and had an .886 save percentage with a 3.17 goals-against average. It's time for an upgrade there.

Impact prospects for 2019-20

Dylan Gambrell, C/W, age 22: In his first full professional season, Gambrell has been very good. He had 45 points in 51 games in the AHL with the San Jose Barracuda and got some good experience in the playoffs, scoring his first goal. Gambrell is a good skater with solid offensive smarts. He could push for a roster spot in camp, especially with the potential for turnover on the Sharks' roster.

Nick DeSimone, D, age 24: As a right-handed-shooting defenseman who is a pending restricted free agent, DeSimone's future might rely more on what happens this offseason than anything else. Both Erik Karlsson and Tim Heed are unrestricted free agents. If either or both don't come back, there's suddenly an opportunity for DeSimone. He was an undrafted free agent signed two seasons ago out of Union College, and he took a big step forward in his second professional season in 2018-19, scoring 14 goals and 46 points in 65 games. He has some size, good mobility and now a full season of significant production from the blue line.

Alexander True, C, age 21: There aren't many 6-foot-5, 200-plus pound centers out there. Aside from that, there aren't as many who can put up the numbers True did with the Barracuda this season. He led the team with 55 points, including 24 goals -- 20 of which came at even strength. True's skating is average at best, but he knows how to get to where he needs to be, and he can certainly finish. His size is obviously a huge advantage for him, and he learned to use it better this season. He could probably challenge for a roster spot, but it's more likely he's a call-up at various points next season.

Ivan Chekhovich, C, age 20: This was a breakout season for Chekhovich, as he had 105 points in 66 games for Baie-Comeau in the QMJHL. I wasn't completely sold that he had taken that big of a step forward, but his early audition in the AHL has been especially notable. He had four points through his first five games with the Barracuda and has made an early impact in the Calder Cup playoffs. He has average size but is shifty and boasts a terrific release on his shot. I would not guarantee him an NHL roster spot at this point, as I think he could benefit from more AHL time, but this season was eye-opening to say the least.

Realistic expectation for 2019-20

It's hard to imagine GM Wilson ever being the "transition year" guy. He has aggressively added to the Sharks in the past two years and was even more aggressive in going after big names he didn't land, such as John Tavares. Even if free agency changes the complexion of this team, you know Wilson will have the backing of ownership to continue contending ... even if they're not getting any younger.