As each NHL team is eliminated from playoff contention -- either mathematically or by losing in the postseason -- we'll take a look at why its quest for the Stanley Cup fell short in 2018-19, along with three keys to its offseason, impact prospects for 2019-20 and a way-too-early prediction for what next season will hold.
What went wrong
Pittsburgh Penguins general manager Jim Rutherford knew his roster wasn't quite right early on this season, and spent much of the campaign tinkering with it. Pittsburgh tried to upgrade its defense, signing Jack Johnson over the summer and taking a flier on Erik Gudbranson at the trade deadline. Rutherford also added Marcus Pettersson for the (underutilized) Daniel Sprong. The Penguins added young forwards Nick Bjugstad and Jared McCann.
While many of the moves have worked out, it also felt as though Pittsburgh trended away from a hallmark of its back-to-back Stanley Cups: speed. The Penguins are a much slower team these days, missing guys like Carl Hagelin and Conor Sheary. Phil Kessel, Kris Letang, Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin are all in their 30s, and not getting any faster.
The blue line was often banged up, which was problematic. Secondary scoring was an issue. Matt Murray struggled early, and though he showed glimpses, never fully returned to his shutdown form.
In the first-round playoff loss to the New York Islanders, the Penguins fell to a team with much less talent because they couldn't match the compete level. The stars, specifically Crosby and wingman Jake Guentzel, were stymied. It culminated with an unceremonious playoff exit and plenty of questions; could this be it for the Penguins' championship-winning core?
Keys to the offseason
Consider seismic changes. Rutherford is never afraid to make a splash, and he has ample time this spring to consider something drastic. Crosby is untouchable. Malkin also has a no-move clause, and is only going somewhere if he asks out (highly unlikely). Murray, Guentzel, Bryan Rust and Letang are likely not going anywhere.
So who could theoretically be on the block? The Penguins will likely shop a defenseman or two; at the very least, they'll check out the market. There's a chance this is Olli Maatta's last season in Pittsburgh (he has a cap hit just over $4 million through 2021-22). Patric Hornqvist is an emotional heartbeat on this team, but is 32 and his production has declined; but given his $5.3 million cap hit for four more seasons, would the Pens find a good trading partner? That leads us to our most likely trade candidate ...
Work things out with/for Phil. Kessel has been involved in rumors over the past two seasons -- he never really jelled with Mike Sullivan's style -- and expect those murmurs to persist this summer. If the Penguins do keep Kessel, they need to figure out how to best utilize him (maybe it's just keeping him on a line with Malkin, which he seems to enjoy), because he has too much talent to let waste.
Restock for the future. Most troubling for Pittsburgh: As the core ages, the Penguins can't restock fast enough with homegrown talent. That's the tradeoff they made for their recent string of success -- a tradeoff most teams would make, to be clear -- but it's not ideal at this stage. It would behoove the Penguins to recoup some draft capital. They don't have a second-round pick in each of the next two drafts, and are also without a third- and sixth-round pick in the 2019 draft.
Impact prospects for 2019-20
The Penguins don't have a lot in their prospect pool that would provide immediate help. They do have some players who can fill out some depth slots or fill in as call-ups, however. Here are a few options for them as soon as next season.
Teddy Blueger, C/W, age 24: Blueger technically graduated from prospect status, as he appeared in 28 games this season with Pittsburgh and even has a playoff appearance under his belt. He'll be an arbitration-eligible restricted free agent this offseason, but he probably showed the Pens enough to look to him as roster depth next season. Blueger has always been a player who got by on work ethic as much as he did his skill.
Sam Miletic, LW, age 21: I really enjoyed watching Miletic in his junior seasons, and I thought he made a relatively smooth transition to the AHL this season. He still needs time at that level to hone his game, but I could see him earning a few call-ups next season when the Pens are short on the wing. Miletic put up 35 points in 49 games this season, showcasing skill and quality speed.
Adam Johnson, C/W, age 24: The Penguins called Johnson up for a few games this season, and he showed why there could be some room for him on the NHL roster next season. In just his second pro campaign, he increased his point total by 12 despite playing in three fewer games than his rookie AHL season. Johnson is probably not much more than a low-lineup guy for next season, but he'll at least give the Penguins a decent, affordable option to fill a role. He is also an arbitration-eligible restricted free agent this offseason.
Realistic expectation for 2019-20
It's hard not to figure on a step backward for Pittsburgh if the same lineup returns for next season. Of course, that could change if we see some roster tweaks; perhaps Crosby & Co. will be fresh after their second consecutive extended rest this spring.
As long as Crosby and Malkin are around, the Penguins will have a chance. But they might not have that second gear anymore to go on a long, successful run.