Much like scouting, player development is an inexact science. A player's progression is something all his own.
What makes that more challenging to grasp is the regularity with which younger players have earned roster spots on NHL teams. It breeds impatience for those who don't follow suit and creates a little more scrutiny on everyone involved, from the scouting staff to the GM to the player. But once a player enters his age-21 or age-22 season, it becomes more reasonable for both the team and player to wonder when it's going to happen. The timeline becomes more of an issue because entry-level contracts can slide only so far, and the team is going to have a very good sense of where that player will or won't fit in.
With that in mind, I wanted to take a look at several players who are reaching crucial seasons in their development. For some, this is the year we should see them take a big step toward becoming NHL players, most notably 2015 third overall pick Dylan Strome of the Arizona Coyotes. But I also looked at some players who aren't necessarily in make-or-break seasons but are entering important years of their development when we should see more progression than has been apparent to date. Here are some prospects under pressure to take the next step this season.
Strome | Nylander | Ho-Sang | Svechnikov
Quenneville | Juolevi | Tippett | Tufte
Dylan Strome, C, Arizona Coyotes
Few prospects outside of the NHL have been under as much scrutiny over the past few years as Strome. It hasn't helped Strome that he was part of such a high-profile draft, one in which he was picked right after Erie Otters teammate Connor McDavid went No. 1 and Jack Eichel went No. 2 and right before the Toronto Maple Leafs snapped up Mitch Marner at No. 4. Meanwhile, 19 of the 30 first-rounders selected in 2015 have played more games than Strome, as have several players picked in later rounds.
Strome is a victim of who was drafted around him and his own organization's circumstance more than anything else. That he didn't make the NHL at 18 isn't a problem. That he couldn't stick when given seven games in his draft-plus-one year isn't either. Nor was it a bad thing that he played 50 games in the AHL last season. Strome is still a good player and a good prospect. Not everyone can make it right away, and the Coyotes were simply doing right by their player and their organization's future in taking a more patient approach. Strome is too important a piece to not develop properly.
The length of time it has taken Strome to get to the NHL has changed opinions on him, and I'll admit that his upside is not at the level we thought it could be in 2015, when he led the OHL with 129 points at 17 years old. His skating continues to be a work in progress and could hold him back. He also needs to be more detailed away from the puck, but his offensive skill set remains high-end. He averaged 1.61 points per game in the OHL and was better than a point-per-game player in his first full professional season in the AHL. Strome also managed to put up nine points in 21 games with the Coyotes last season.
If you're a Coyotes fan worried that he's trending toward bust, there is a decent comparable that might give you a little bit of reprieve from your anxiety. Strome's path seems eerily similar to that of Bobby Ryan, who had the high-profile distinction of being the guy picked right after Sidney Crosby in the 2005 NHL draft. He didn't make the Anaheim Ducks right away, getting sent back to junior two years in a row before spending much of his draft-plus-two season in the AHL. Like Strome, Ryan showed incredible offensive talent despite so-so skating and a lack of detail away from the puck.
Despite Ryan's seemingly slow start to his NHL career -- he became an NHL regular at 21 -- he ranks fourth in his draft class in total points and posted four consecutive seasons of 30 or more goals with the Ducks. If Stome's ceiling is Ryan, I think that's an especially good outcome for the Coyotes. I actually think Strome's overall upside is higher than Ryan's was at the same age based on his body of work to this point. Watching some of Tucson's games on video last year, I saw a player who knows how to exploit gaps and make NHL-level reads in the offensive zone. He has tremendous vision and is a gifted passer. Strome also has that big, 6-foot-3, 201-pound frame that he's figuring out how to use more effectively as a pro.
Despite all of his success outside the NHL, this season will probably be another exercise in patience for Strome. Even Ryan had to go back for some extra AHL time in his age-21 season before returning to the NHL and scoring 31 goals to finish second in Calder Trophy voting. Strome might never satisfy all the doubters, but he's going to have his best chance to be part of the Coyotes for an entire season this year. The team is banged up heading into the 2018-19 campaign, which adds only more responsibility and pressure to perform. If Arizona gets secondary scoring from guys such as Strome, it is going to be in a much better position to compete.
Alexander Nylander, LW, Buffalo Sabres
After going No. 8 overall in 2016, Nylander has spent the past two seasons in the AHL. In that time, there has been marginal improvement in his game. Over 116 games with the Rochester Americans, Nylander has 55 points. It's a decent total, but last season was a bit concerning when it comes to progression. It has been hard for Nylander to give the Sabres a reason to give him an extended look on the NHL roster. He has appeared in seven NHL games and has two points the past two years.
There have been bright spots for Nylander. He was a leading offensive player for Sweden in the past two World Junior Championships, and he had a strong training camp performance this fall. He has shown at times that he can play with high-end players. Looking for Nylander to match the pedigree of a top-10 pick is not out of the question yet. It's just harder to buy that he'll get there based on the past two seasons. He's going to start the season in the AHL.
Josh Ho-Sang, LW, New York Islanders
A new regime in the Islanders' front office did little to help Ho-Sang get onto the roster for opening night. He was sent back to the AHL in what will be his third professional season. In that span, he has appeared in 43 games with the Islanders and has a respectable 22 points to show for it. No one has ever doubted Ho-Sang's skill level because his puck-handling is downright electric. But questions about his overall hockey sense and specifically his ability to play away from the puck remain. There has been improvement on those fronts, and the noise surrounding his attitude and maturity has begun to dwindle a bit.
But if there isn't a spot for Ho-Sang on this roster in the post-John Tavares era, one wonders if these two parties might need to move on from each other. Even though we're four years removed from when Ho-Sang went 28th overall to the Isles, he still has NHL upside in the skill department. But this is truly his make-or-break season.
Evgeny Svechnikov, LW, Detroit Red Wings
Bad luck seems to keep hitting Svechnikov. He is going to start the season on non-roster injured reserve, which is how he started last season. Svechnikov never managed to stick with the NHL team last year and saw a dip in his AHL production as well. It was a bit of a troubling development for a once-exciting prospect. He had a decent preseason, the injury appears to be minor, and he is expected to head to Grand Rapids once again. The Red Wings have every reason to continue believing in him, but this is going to be an especially big season for him to prove he deserves a place on the NHL roster -- and soon. This is a team that is attempting to rebuild, and if there isn't a spot for him during these transitional years, then it's time to start making other plans.
John Quenneville, C/W, New Jersey Devils
It has been a pretty long road to this point, but Quenneville has his best opportunity to stick with the Devils after making the team out of camp. The 30th overall pick in the 2014 draft has appeared in 14 NHL games so far, and I was starting to wonder if he could be an everyday NHLer. He has been a slightly above average AHL player for his age, but it was getting harder to see where he could fit for a New Jersey squad that has seen multiple draftees skip ahead of Quenneville on the depth chart. The 22-year-old has been rewarded for a good summer of training and a strong performance in camp with a chance to stick in a depth role. He might not live up to the hype that a first-round draft pick naturally brings, but he has never had a better chance to take hold of a role and carve out a niche for himself at the NHL level.
Olli Juolevi, D, Vancouver Canucks
At the time the Canucks drafted Juolevi, hopes were especially high for this offensively gifted defenseman. There was little doubting his upside after 42 points in 57 OHL games and nine assists in the World Juniors, in which Finland won gold. But there hasn't been much progress since then. Juolevi pretty much stayed the same in another season with the London Knights, so the Canucks had him go back to Finland and play pro last season. I think that was a really good thing for his game and his confidence. He played well by all accounts, and I saw a more mature player at the World Juniors last season.
He'll start the season in Utica in the AHL, and I think he'll probably play the full season there. He's only 20 years old, but there's obviously some pressure, as he was a high draft pick for a team in the midst of a rebuild. As long as Juolevi can earn and maintain a top-four role with Utica, that's a good spot for him to take a few more steps toward the NHL. It is definitely too soon to write him off, but this is an especially important season for him.
Owen Tippett, LW, Florida Panthers
After getting a seven-game audition with the Panthers last season, Tippett was sent back to Mississauga in the OHL. That was a big wake-up call for the talented sniper, and the 19-year-old responded with a hat trick in his first game back in the league. There is no doubting Tippett's offensive ability, as he has an elite shot and good north-south speed. It's also far too early to panic about the 2017 10th overall pick's future, especially since competition for forward spots was way tougher in Florida's camp this season with the arrival of top prospect Henrik Borgstrom and trade acquisition Mike Hoffman.
Tippett is a particularly good case for why you'd wish NHL teams would show more flexibility with their prospects. He looks like an ideal candidate for the AHL, but he can't go there due to the NHL's agreement with the CHL and its three member junior leagues that requires players to be loaned back to their junior teams if they are 19 or younger. Very few players are going to be hurt by spending more time at a lower level, especially when they get major ice time and can play in all situations. The trail of broken prospects is far more populated by players who were pushed before they were ready than by those left to marinate longer. Tippett still should dominate this level, earn a spot on the Canadian national junior team -- which he did not make last season -- and maybe have a chance to join Florida's AHL team at the end of the season like he did last year. As long as he commits himself to working out the kinks in his game and dominating offensively, he's going to be just fine.
Riley Tufte, LW, Dallas Stars
The 25th overall pick in 2016, Tufte has always been a project. He is huge, at 6-foot-6, 209 pounds, and he can absolutely skate. His brain had to catch up to his feet, though, as I don't think he processed the game as fast as he could move. He's getting there. Last season as a sophomore at Minnesota Duluth, Tufte showed significant progress from an otherwise tepid freshman campaign. He made the U.S. National Junior Team and won bronze and then helped Duluth win the national title. This is the year I'd like to see Tufte become a dominant force. He's bigger and stronger than most everyone he plays against. Now it's time to see that translate into a big season.