By all accounts, this is not necessarily the year you want to be looking for a goaltending prospect. While there are certainly a few players in this class who are going to fit nicely into a team's goaltending pipeline, there aren't any that stand out as truly elite at this point. In fact, I would be pretty surprised to see any goalies go in the first two rounds, but that's based more on the skill level of the skaters in this particular class.
I think that actually makes things a little easier for teams. They can focus on getting the skaters early and see who might be there in the third, fourth or even fifth rounds at the goaltending position. There are some players with enough upside that they might be able to strike gold.
Only one goalie made my top-80 prospect big board, which will drop this week. It wasn't intentional to leave the goalies off -- it's just how the rankings worked out. Additionally, there is a school of thought that since goalies are so difficult to project, teams should manage risk by waiting to make their selections anyway. I definitely subscribe to that, but I'm always willing to make exceptions. This year there just wasn't enough in this class to move the needle for me.
Now, I'm certainly not a goaltending expert, but there are some key things I look for in goaltending prospects. Size is the easy one, but if a goalie doesn't have it, I'm not going to write him off. This year in particular, there are some really good goalies who come in under the 6-foot-3 range that teams seemed to go gaga over in previous years. Quickness is another, but as important as a goalie's quickness is, I want to see how often that goalie is making it look easy. Does he challenge the shooter enough to take away the net and make the easy save? How well does he keep things in front of him? If he can stretch and make those highlight-reel saves, it's a bonus, but if he's doing that a half a dozen times a game, that might suggest other issues.
The most important thing, however, is the part that can't really be discerned solely by watching a player, though body language helps. I want to know about a goaltender's calmness in the net. How does he react to goals allowed? What are his next few saves like? What do teammates and coaches say about their confidence in his play? All of that matters. It's difficult to teach, and some goalies may never learn it, but it's definitely something I try to identify with outside sources.
So with that, here are my top five goalies for the 2018 NHL draft.
Nos. 1-20 | Nos. 21-40 | Nos. 41-60 | Nos. 61-80
Top 80 | Notable late-rounders
1. Lukas Dostal, Trebic (Czech-2)
Age: 18 | Catch: L | Ht: 6-1 | Wt: 158
20 GP | 2.43 GAA | 0.921 SV % | 2 SO
The only goalie to make my top 80 (No. 78), Dostal has been on my radar all season. In a year where there aren't many surefire No. 1 goalie candidates, I think Dostal has the most upside of any goalie in this draft. He is 6-foot-1, so he's not exactly small, but he's not the prototypical size of a goaltender. He is, however, extremely athletic with quick movements in the net and has an ability to be aggressive without taking himself out of position.
One of the things that really stands out to me is the way Dostal competes. When he played for the Czechs internationally this year, it was a given that he was going to see a lot of shots. He handled that extremely well, making a lot of key saves while battling to make sure it took second or third efforts to beat him with the traffic other teams were able to create.
He spent most of the year in the Czech second division where he posted a .921 save percentage, which ranked fifth among goalies with at least 20 appearances. Only four goalies under the age of 18 in that league's history appeared in more than 10 games in a single season, one of whom is also on this list. I think Dostal is just starting to scratch the surface of his potential.
2. Olivier Rodrigue, Drummondville (QMJHL)
Age: 17 | Catch: L | Ht: 6-1 | Wt: 159
53 GP | 2.54 GAA | 0.903 SV % | 3 SO
I think Rodrigue is most likely the first goalie off the board in the draft. Only two goalies in the QMJHL appeared in more games than the 53 that Rodrigue played this season. That's a great feat for a 17-year-old netminder, who also got some action in both the Ivan Hlinka and U18 World Championship tournaments. Rodrigue has good quickness and takes up a lot of net, even though he's fairly average sized. He's an especially competitive goalie who just won't quit on plays and doesn't get beaten easily very often. His numbers were fair this season while playing behind a pretty solid Drummondville squad.
Having the benefit of appearing in 94 QMJHL games all before his 18th birthday gives him a ton of quality reps at a high level. That may give him a leg up in terms of his development arc, considering how hard it is for 16- and 17-year-olds to play that much that soon. He had to struggle through that because it's not easy being a goalie in the Q.
Rodrigue also really stood out in the two big international tournaments he played in this year, posting a save percentage north of .940 in seven appearances between the Hlinka and U18 Worlds as bookends of his season. It was there that his maturity really showed off. There's not a lot of wasted movement, and he made the easy stops and gave his team a quiet presence in the net. It was a really strong showing for a player whom a lot of teams could view as a guy they can take in the second or third round.
3. Justus Annunen, Karpat Jr. (Finland-Jr.)
Age: 18 | Catch: L | Ht: 6-4 | Wt: 217
26 GP | 2.31 GAA | 0.907 SV % | 6 SO
Annunen was a player I keyed in on very early in the season. While he had his ups and downs in terms of his numbers, I still see an NHL-caliber goaltender. On top of having the size NHL teams covet in their goaltenders, Annunen brings the right demeanor to the net.
"He's powerful in the net, calm and plays like a winning goalie," said Finland head coach Tommi Niemela.
The calm factor is always evident in Annunen's body language and in his style of play. He is precise in the net, finds himself in great position a lot and doesn't often have to rely on the big save with his strong positioning. With that big frame, he doesn't give shooters a lot to look at.
Annunen played all but one game for Finland at the U18 World Championship, winning the gold medal. He posted a respectable .914 save percentage in the process, with 127 total saves over six starts. Before that, he played mostly in Finland's junior ranks and even got one game in Liiga. He still has work to do, but he's got size and power already, which is a great physical foundation to start with on top of his mentality between the pipes.
4. Jakub Skarek, Jihlava (Czech)
Age: 18 | Catch: L | Ht: 6-3 | Wt: 196
21 GP | 2.41 GAA | 0.913 SV % | 1 SO
Another goalie more in line with the prototypical size of an NHL netminder, Skarek is especially intriguing. As I noted earlier, only four goalies under the age of 18 had played 10 games in the Czech second division, and Skarek is one of them -- having even played in the league a bit in his age-16 season. This season, he spent a little time on loan in the second division but played mostly in the top division with HC Dukla Jihlava, posting a respectable .913 save percentage in 21 games. That's the 10th best save percentage by a U19 goalie in that league's history. Dominik Hasek is on that list ahead of him twice, as a fun aside.
He also played for the Czech Republic at the WJC, where the coach had a bit of a quick hook for goalies, which probably didn't help Skarek's consistency. The Czechs also ran into a couple of buzz saws in the last few games of the tournament, skewing his numbers. However, there were plenty of scouts impressed with what he showed over the course of that tournament.
Something teams will also like is that Skarek is headed to Finland next year where he will play for the Lahti Pelicans. That should be excellent for his development assuming he gets decent playing time. I think he's the kind of goalie who provides strong value to a team in the middle rounds of the draft.
5. Amir Miftakhov, Irbis Kazan (Russia-Jr.)
Age: 18 | Catch: L | Ht: 6-0 | Wt: 158
26 GP | 1.91 GAA | 0.934 SV % | 2 SO
An aggressive goalie, Miftakhov is another netminder in this class who lacks the prototypical size NHL teams seek. You can get away with that if you can be aggressive without being risky. That seems to be the way Miftakhov plays, though I've seen a few games where he was swimming in the crease a little bit too much.
He struggled down the stretch of his season, including a poor showing at the World U18 Championship. Like Dostal, he's an absolute competitor in the net, making sure that he does everything he can to make the saves. He knows he has to work harder than the big guys. I also think he bounces back pretty well from adversity. He didn't get rattled, even though the Russian team in front of him was not providing much help.
I think you're taking on a lot of risk with him, but there's upside there due to his quickness, athleticism and competitiveness. But I probably would want to wait until the later rounds to take a chance on him.