Coming out of the NHL scouting combine, there remains very little consensus on how things will go after Rasmus Dahlin is selected No. 1 overall. The differing opinions on players throughout the first and second rounds in particular make for a very interesting and exciting draft with very little predictability.
It also makes it difficult to identify players who fit into the specific categories on this list. I took a look at players I've moved up on my own draft board, but also cross referenced with scouting services and various team scouts to mix in some other opinions with my own. In addition to the risers and fallers, I also pointed out a few wild-card players who have either been all over the map or jumped up later in the process. In some cases, those can be the more interesting players in the draft.
Here's a look at players trending up, down and everywhere in between.
Risers
Vitali Kravtsov
One of the biggest risers of the draft season -- particularly among first-round caliber prospects -- Kravtsov's remarkable scoring run during the KHL playoffs opened a lot of eyes. As a big player with skill, he was on a lot of radars, but to see him open up his game the way he did during those playoffs was too stunning to ignore.
Kravtsov had 11 points in 16 postseason games for Chelyabinsk, setting a new KHL playoff record for points by a U20 player in a single playoff. It wasn't just about his production, though. He was playing the game with a level of uncommon confidence, attacking opposing defenders and beating them with both creativity and power.
Additionally, Kravtsov apparently grew a little bit more this season, as he was measured closer to 6-foot-3 than 6-foot-2. He has room to fill out his frame a little more, too. If he ends up playing at a bit closer to 200 pounds (he weighed in at 184 in Buffalo) without losing speed, then he'd be more effective in the power elements of his game.
One of the reasons Kravtsov was under the radar much of the season was that he barely played for Russia internationally. He played in one U20 tournament but did not make the World Juniors roster and hadn't played at all internationally as a U18 last year. Teams have been doing their homework to make sure Kravtsov's postseason performance wasn't just a flash in the pan, but he has the combination of skill level and size that teams covet. It'd be reasonable to see him drafted somewhere in the middle portion of the first round at this point.
Liam Foudy
Foudy may be one of the most dramatic risers in the entire draft. NHL Central Scouting had him listed as the 91st North American skater in the draft at the midterm, and he wasn't among the initial invitee list for the CHL Top Prospects Game, though he ended up being added as an injury replacement. Now at the end of the season, Foudy was ranked 19th by Central Scouting, and I now have him in my own top 40 after not ranking him on previous lists.
Foudy is a great example of how much opportunity and usage mean, as sometimes good players get buried on really good teams. Foudy's rise has a lot to do with London shipping out multiple veteran players who logged big minutes, including first-round draft picks Max Jones and Robert Thomas.
"I think just the ice time," Foudy said about what changed in his game when I spoke to him in London in March. "Dale [Hunter] is more confident in me, letting me go out in all situations, late-in-the-game kind of situations. He obviously believes in me, so that's nice. Just getting the ice helped."
Getting the ice time is one thing, but making the most of it is quite another. Foudy became an offensive standout for a London team that didn't take nearly as big a step back as most thought after they started trading away star players.
Foudy had just seven points in his first 34 games of the season with the Knights. He had 33 in his remaining 31 games, showing off his high-end skating ability and skills to beat defenders and find the net with increased regularity. He also made Canada's U18 World Championship team, and I thought he was one of its most consistent threats due to his skating.
He was also a combine standout, showcasing his superior athleticism by placing first in two of the three vertical jump categories, first in the standing long jump, first in peak power output on the Wingate test, fourth in bench press power and in the top two on pro agility time to both the left and right. Perhaps we should expect that from the son of former CFL defensive back Sean Foudy and Olympic silver medalist sprinter France Gareau. I think he has an outside shot of going in the first round, but he'll also provide great value in the early second.
Jesperi Kotkaniemi
Kotkaniemi is not really a huge draft riser, as he was already highly regarded as a surefire first-round pick. However, I've heard rumblings of teams having him among their top prospects on their draft boards. He has the best chance of anybody to break up the party that was thought to be reserved for top wingers Andrei Svechnikov, Filip Zadina, Brady Tkachuk and Oliver Wahlstrom.
The Finnish forward played a lot of wing in Liiga this year, but he is a natural center, and teams will always put a higher value on a center over wings. Kotkaniemi's performance in late-season international events like the Five Nations and U18 World Championship (the latter of which he won gold at) have him rising up the charts. Additionally, it sounds like he interviewed especially well at the combine, which is often more important than how one performs during the physical testing portion.
Nils Lundkvist
I know Lundkvist is not much of a riser for some of my contacts in Sweden, but he has been for everyone else. The average-sized defenseman with outstanding hockey sense and maturity in his game has rocketed up the charts and is looking more and more like a probable first-round draft pick. He averaged over 16 minutes per game in the SHL this season, a big number for any U18 player, and saw his role even increase a little in the playoffs. Lundkvist was also a solid performer for Sweden at various U18 events, showing tremendous defensive sense and good footwork in his own end. He is also adept at getting pucks out of the zone, making good feeds and showing zero panic with the puck on his stick. He's an advanced player for his age and is no longer a secret.
Scott Perunovich
A third-year eligible prospect, Perunovich was the national rookie of the year in men's college hockey this season. He led Minnesota Duluth in scoring as a freshman blueliner with 36 points, helping the Bulldogs win the national championship. He plays with great maturity and poise and has enough edge to hold his own in the defensive zone despite being a bit on the smaller side. He proved in the college ranks that he can play and think about the game at a high level, and that puts him on the radar for a second-round selection.
Wild cards
The wild-card players don't necessarily fit comfortably into either the riser or faller categories. In some cases, like that of Ryan Merkley, they've been all over the mark the entire season. These players offer a lot of intrigue and differing opinions.
Ryan Merkley
As a supremely skilled defenseman and one of the best passers in the draft, Merkley finished third among defensemen in the OHL with 67 points and was the only U18 defenseman in the league to average better than a point per game. In fact, over the last 20 years, only six defensemen in the OHL have averaged over a point per game in their U18 season. All but one were selected in the first round.
No one will deny Merkley's offensive talents. What concerns teams is just about everything else. Defensively, Merkley struggles in a pretty big way. Some teams feel he may be completely disinterested in his own zone. I'm definitely not a huge fan of plus-minus in evaluations, but in Merkley's case it's especially noticeable because of his high point total and ridiculously high minus rate. He was minus-29 this year and minus-41 the year before.
Despite the poor numbers, I've seen enough of Merkley to know that he can be a capable defender when he wants to be. He seems to play better in the bigger games and looked particularly strong at times at the World U18 Championship.
Merkley spoke with 25 teams at the combine. According to him, each one asked questions about his personality and attitude. That has been one of the persisting concerns about the talented 17-year-old. Some teams are willing to chalk it up to immaturity, but some are worried that if those character concerns persist, he may never reach the top level. It's something that Merkley is taking time to address.
"I think it's pretty common topics, the defense and my body language and maturity," Merkley said of what teams particularly wanted him to address during the combine. "I know I've got to work on my mental game for sure. J.P. Barrie (his agent) has been helping me find people to talk to. It's a big area of my game if I want to get to that level and stay there. I've got to mature and deal with my frustration levels and obviously my defensive game and commitment level there."
Merkley said he still hopes to go in the first round, and it at least remains a possibility. The fact that 25 teams still wanted to talk to him at the combine is a good sign. There are also teams that won't even put him on their draft boards. I still think there's enough value in his skill set to give him a chance, but I wouldn't want to make that pick in the first round with all of the risk tied to him.
Liam Kirk
Kirk won't be on my top 100 this year, but I think he's got an honest shot at becoming the first-ever player born and trained in England to be drafted into the NHL. He was invited to the NHL combine and said he met with 10 teams. If he is picked, I don't anticipate it being before the fifth round.
What makes him a bit of a wild card is that he has some decent skill but plays in a league that the NHL typically does not scout: the Elite Ice Hockey League in the UK. He spent the last two seasons with the Sheffield Steelers in the professional ranks after simply dominating the junior circuit and as a national team player at the U20 and U18 levels for England. The question scouts have to answer is if they have enough to go off of to list him. There aren't really any historical comparables, and the international tournaments he played in are pretty low-level. Based on the skill, there's potential. Maybe he left a lasting impression on a team with his combine meetings. If he goes on Day 2 of the draft, he'll make some history.
Fallers
Jack McBain
I was especially high on McBain early in the season after watching his game film from the Ivan Hlinka tournament. Those summer hockey tournaments can be a bit deceiving, though. After an exceptional showing in that August tournament with five points in five games, I didn't see much progression in McBain's game. He's lost some fans in the scouting community along the way, as well.
Because of McBain's physical tool set, there's going to be interest. However, the probability of being a first-round pick seems distant at this point. There's no question he's strong, can be mean on the ice and has some offensive abilities, but the idea that he is among the elite forwards in the draft has evaporated over the course of the season. If he works on quickness and his hands a bit more, he could get himself back on track.
Benoit-Olivier Groulx
A talented two-way center, Groulx is an interesting player. Formerly believed to be a first-round caliber talent, I've heard enough about his lack of offensive upside to think it's likely he drops into the second round. He had a solid season with Halifax, but most teams don't necessarily value the parts of Groulx's game that he's best at to make the move in the first round.
Alexis Gravel
Coming into the season as the top goaltender, Gravel has slipped. I think there are still teams that have positive views of his upside, but I am not in that camp. He has tremendous size, but I haven't seen many games in which Gravel looked exceptional against the other goalies in this class.
Jett Woo
Formerly a likely first-round prospect, Woo appears closer to a mid-to-late second-rounder at this point. Part of that may be due to Woo being injured for a portion of the season and seeing his role dwindle a bit as Moose Jaw loaded up for a WHL title run that ultimately fell just short. Scouts have long admired Woo's hard-nosed game. His sturdy frame and propensity to deliver hard hits always jump out, but his offensive game needs a lot of work. That's a reason he's slipped more amid a class chock full of gifted puck-movers.