Based on regular season results, there are no underdogs in the conference finals.
The division winners in the Eastern Conference will battle for a spot in the Stanley Cup Final, while the Central's second-place team matches against the Pacific's winner in the Western Conference.
But if you dig a little deeper, there are two clubs with storylines that could result in plenty of drama over the next two rounds. The Washington Capitals are looking to make their first Cup Final appearance in the Alex Ovechkin era, and the Vegas Golden Knights could earn a shot at a championship in their first season as a franchise. Both teams, however, are facing uphill battles to make history.
Let's have a look at how the Capitals and Golden Knights match up against the Tampa Bay Lightning and Winnipeg Jets with a trip to the Cup Final on the line.
Note: All advanced stats are courtesy of Natural Stat Trick.
Winnipeg Jets vs. Vegas Golden Knights
Three key stats:
Vegas leads all playoff teams with a .966 even-strength save percentage
During the regular season, Winnipeg scored 175 even-strength goals, Vegas scored 174
Of teams which made the second round, the Jets and Golden Knights rank No. 1 and 2 in scoring chances created per 60 minutes
Winnipeg
It took years of slowing building through the draft, but the Jets are now a complete juggernaut. They drew the toughest matchup in the second round, but came away with a seven-game victory over Nashville, last year's Stanley Cup representatives from the West.
The Jets have received contributions from up and down their lineup during the postseason, with seven different players having scored multiple even-strength goals and five players with double-digit, all-situation point totals. One particular player, however, has put his name on the map as one of the elite centers in the NHL: Mark Scheifele.
The 2011 first-round pick scored seven goals in Round 2, proving to be unstoppable despite facing Nashville's top defenders, P.K. Subban and Mattias Ekholm, for 78 of his total 121 minutes. Paul Maurice has found the perfect combination of skills to put around Scheifele on the top line, with veteran Blake Wheeler using his size and playmaking skills while young Kyle Connor draws attention with speed and skill.
Similar to the Lightning (as we'll see below), the Jets were already a contender when they added another star to the mix at the trade deadline. Veteran center Paul Stastny, who was acquired from the St. Louis Blues, leads the Jets in even-strength points (10) this postseason, and has the top on-ice goal differential on the team. Winnipeg is outscoring opponents 12-4 with Stastny on the ice.
One particular stat is emblematic of the Jets' depth and talent on defense: Third-pair defenseman Tyler Myers has been on the ice for the most goals-for of any Winnipeg blueliner. In the past, we have seen teams essentially reduce themselves to two pairs during the playoffs. The Jets, on the other hand, have been able to create mismatches with Myers, who had five points in the series against the Predators, including a key goal in Game 7.
Myers' role tells you a lot about the first two pairs. When Jacob Trouba and Josh Morrissey have been on the ice in the playoffs, the Jets have allowed just three goals, and have outshot opponents 115-78. When Trouba and star Nashville forward Filip Forsberg were matched up, Winnipeg had a 54.7 percent Corsi for percentage, and outscored the Preds 4-2.
And then there's Dustin Byfuglien, one of the NHL's most intimidating forces. The veteran defenseman leads the Jets in minutes this postseason, and has 13 playoff points.
Heading into the playoffs, the biggest two questions for the Jets were: Could they get past Nashville? Would Connor Hellebuyck be up to the task?
Both of those questions have been answered, as Hellebuyck has a .927 playoff save percentage. If he continues to carry over a Vezina Trophy-worthy season to the playoffs, the Jets can reach the Stanley Cup Final.
Vegas
The Golden Knights are no longer just a nice story. They are a force. In the franchise's first 10 postseason games, they have steamrolled the Los Angeles Kings and San Jose Sharks, outscoring them 19-8 at even strength, good for the best goal differential of any team in the playoffs.
The question is whether the Golden Knights can stand up to a powerhouse like the Jets. Both the Kings and Sharks are teams that have faded from their best years. Los Angeles severely lacks depth, and San Jose played the entire series without future Hall of Fame center Joe Thornton. Vegas has succeeded in the first two rounds in part because they were deeper than the opposition. They are not a deeper team than Winnipeg.
That is not to suggest that Vegas's success came just because of a favorable postseason slate.
Many of the players who are being touted as a ragtag group actually are either proven scorers or were quality prospects that teams were forced to part with because of the league's expansion rules.
Jonathan Marchessault, for example, scored 30 goals last season for Florida. Tied with Marchessault for playoff points (11) is Reilly Smith, who twice scored 20-plus goals in his career before this season. Young players like Alex Tuch and Shea Theodore were considered rising stars by their teams. Veterans James Neal and David Perron were significant point producers on other teams, and goalie Marc-Andre Fleury was a long-time franchise goalie in Pittsburgh.
Where Vegas can match Winnipeg is in two key areas: Speed and goaltending. Both teams play at a high pace and create scoring chances off the rush. Center Erik Haula, who produced 29 goals this season, will be particularly key because of his quickness. The Golden Knights also put together two extremely good puck-handling defenders in Theodore and Nate Schmidt. Combined, they have been on the ice for 16 goals for and six against in the postseason.
In net, Fleury has exorcised all of his demons of playoff past in the first two rounds. With four shutouts and a .951 save percentage, he has been the best netminder in the postseason thus far, and it isn't close. Maintaining that pace would be challenging, but Fleury will likely have to carry his team if the Golden Knights are going to make history.
The pick: Winnipeg in five
Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Washington Capitals
Three key stats:
The Lightning have allowed the fewest scoring chances per 60 minutes in the playoffs
Washington leads all playoff teams with 12 power play goals
Braden Holtby (.926) and Andrei Vasilevskiy (.927) have nearly identical save percentages
Tampa Bay
On paper, it appeared that the Lightning would have a serious battle on their hands with the Boston Bruins. After all, Boston finished the regular season only one standings point behind Tampa Bay and had defeated a strong Toronto team in the first round. Instead, the Lightning ran away from the B's. Following a Game 1 loss, Jon Cooper's club won four straight and outscored their opponents by a 15-7 margin.
Overall, Tampa Bay has mauled its first two opponents at even strength. They have taken 54.3 percent of the total shots, outscored the opposition 19-12 and created 73 high-danger shots to only 52 allowed.
Without a doubt the beneficiary of the Lightning's possession dominance and defensive prowess has been goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy, who entered the playoffs as a wild card because of his lack of postseason experience. Before this season, the Russian netminder had made only seven playoff starts. The only goalie ahead of him in even-strength save percentage in the postseason is Vegas's Marc-Andre Fleury.
The addition of defenseman Ryan McDonagh has had exactly the impact general manager Steve Yzerman dreamed of when he pulled off the deal at the trade deadline. In the first two rounds, McDonagh largely matched up with the elite players from New Jersey and Boston, playing 47 minutes against Taylor Hall in Round 1 and 52 against Patrice Bergeron in Round 2.
This has allowed Victor Hedman to line up across from second and third lines. Tampa Bay's Norris Trophy finalist saw Hall and Bergeron for only 20 minutes each. Furthermore, dynamic young defenseman Mikhail Sergachev can be used in a very specific role. Cooper has deployed him for 51 offensive zone faceoffs and just nine D-zone faceoffs; Sergachev has been on the ice for a 62-32 advantage in shots.
Up front, Steven Stamkos and Nikita Kucherov are leading the Lightning with 22 points combined in 10 games, but it's Tampa Bay's depth that makes them even more dangerous than in years past. Brayden Point has been on the ice for 27 more scoring chances for than against (while seeing a ton of Bergeron's line in Round 2), while Yanni Gourde leads the team with a 60.2 Corsi for percentage.
For the Lightning to earn a trip back to the Stanley Cup Final, they will have to continue to control play from the back end. McDonagh is set for another incredibly tough matchup against Evgeny Kuznetsov and Ovechkin, but Tampa Bay has been the superior possession team to Washington during the regular season and playoffs. If their goaltending holds up and depth players continue to roll, the Lightning will advance.
Washington
The Capitals' offensive prowess has been on display in the postseason. They have scored more total goals than any other team in the playoffs and produced a power-play goal in 10 of 12 contests.
So far, it hasn't mattered that Washington is top-heavy -- because the top players have been dominant. Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom and Evgeny Kuznetsov each average more than a point per game in the playoffs and winger T.J. Oshie has tacked on five goals.
While Ovechkin is most known for his shot on the power play, his 5-on-5 play has led the Caps into the conference final for the first time in his career. With Ovechkin on the ice, Washington has outshot opponents 102-84, outscored them 12-7 and created 42 high-danger chances to opponents' 30 chances.
The concern for the Capitals is when Ovechkin is off the ice. In the postseason, Washington's Corsi for percentage drops by 5.6 percent when he is on the bench, and its goals for percentage sinks by 15.2 percent.
Barry Trotz's team may need an unlikely hero to rise if they are going to advance to the Stanley Cup Final. Two candidates are forwards Chandler Stephenson and Jakub Vrana, particularly with Backstrom in question due to injury.
While Stephenson produced only 18 points during the regular season, he has found himself playing a significant role. He has spent 105 minutes with Backstrom during the first two rounds and produced five points. Vrana has averaged under 10 minutes of even-strength ice time per game, but still posted five points of his own. The 22-year-old winger scored 13 goals during the regular season and may get an opportunity to play top-six minutes against the Lightning.
Even with help from unexpected players, the Capitals will need spectacular goaltending to defeat the more talented Lightning. Following a rough regular season, Braden Holtby has proven again to be one of the best postseason goalies in the NHL. In his career, Holby has an outstanding .931 save percentage in 69 playoff starts. He has the ability to steal a series.