It's hard not to view the 2018 NHL draft as particularly crucial for the Detroit Red Wings. Now that Ken Holland knows his job is safe for a while longer, he has an opportunity to reshape the team a little bit. It's probably going to end up taking longer than the Wings would like, but there is an opportunity to make some significant gains in their prospect system.
In what is considered a deep draft, particularly within the top 50, the Red Wings have two first-rounders and two early second-round picks. Add in three more third-rounders, and the Red Wings have seven of the first 90 picks in the draft. Of the years to have a surplus of early picks, this should be a particularly fruitful one. The Wings join the New York Rangers as the only two teams with seven picks in the first three rounds of the draft this year. To finish out the draft, Detroit additionally has a fourth-rounder, a pair of sixth-round picks and a seventh-rounder.
Of the picks, No. 6 overall is obviously the one they can't miss on. This is a year in which the top 10 looks particularly strong. Not winning the draft lottery likely does not afford the Red Wings an NHL-ready asset next season, but they could still net a player who instantly becomes the top prospect in their system and a player with a great opportunity to have a lasting impact on the franchise. It all comes down to finding the right fit for the organization.
The rest of the picks have a chance to fill out a system that has some intrigue, but there are a lot of unknowns and longer-term projects for Detroit right now. There won't be any quick-fix options in the draft, but there is enough here to aid the Red Wings a few years down the line when they're a little further along in their transitional phase.
As we did for the Rangers, the abundance of picks in the top 90 makes Detroit a great team to look at and see what its first half of the draft could look like. While it's next to impossible to know for sure which players will be available, I'll estimate who I think will still be on the board and plug in a player who I think would be a good fit for the organization. This also assumes the team holds onto all of its available picks. Unlike the mock draft, this is less about who I think the team will pick and more what I would do if I were in their position. Let's take a look.
Round 1
No. 6 pick: Quinn Hughes, D, Michigan (Big Ten)
Age: 18 | Shoot: L | Ht: 5-10 | Wt: 170
37 GP | 5 G | 24 A
Based on the way we expect this draft to go, the Red Wings are going to have options that may include Hughes, Adam Boqvist, Evan Bouchard, Noah Dobson and Oliver Wahlstrom available to pick here. I'm fully expecting Rasmus Dahlin, Andrei Svechnikov, Filip Zadina and Brady Tkachuk to be gone, with an outside chance Tkachuk is still available. I think the Red Wings would be wise to target a defenseman.
Of the blueliners available, Hughes would be the one I'd take from the post-Dahlin wave. Of the defensemen in this draft not named Dahlin, I think he has the most game-breaking potential. He plays a style all his own and is one of the best skating 18-year-old defensemen I've seen in recent years. That makes up for concerns about his size in a big way.
He's currently playing for Jeff Blashill at the men's World Championship with Team USA. Hughes is the first draft-eligible defenseman to play for Team USA since Phil Housley in 1982. He's essentially the team's seventh defenseman, but is on the second power play unit and looks awfully comfortable for being one of the youngest blueliners the U.S. has ever taken to this tournament. He's showing that he's not terribly far away from being ready to take the next step.
At Michigan, Hughes put up 29 points and averaged 0.78 points per game this season. His numbers aren't as gaudy as some of his counterparts in the junior ranks, but relative to NCAA competition, he's in pretty good company. Over the past 20 years, only six other defensemen age 18 or younger averaged 0.78 points per game in the NCAA, and three of them were top-10 picks: Jacob Trouba, Jack Johnson and Zach Werenski. Hughes is the only one of that group who was in his draft season at the time.
The way Hughes plays isn't for everyone, which is why I wonder if the Red Wings ultimately look to Bouchard in this slot. Hughes can freelance a bit and occasionally takes unnecessary risks. However, as he proved at Michigan this year, he's coachable. He picked his spots better over the course of the year, but didn't lose his offensive flair. In fact, playing a bit more controlled made him one of the most dangerous defensemen in the country down the stretch.
No. 29 pick (via VGS): Jonatan Berggren, RW, Skelleftea Jr. (Sweden-Jr.)
Age: 17 | Shoot: L | Ht: 5-10 | Wt: 181
38 GP | 18 G | 39 A
Picking up an extra first-rounder from the Vegas Golden Knights in the Tomas Tatar trade should go a long way this year. Having four of the first 36 picks in a deep draft could really swing Detroit's prospect pool in a positive direction.
Few forwards remaining in this range intrigue me more than Berggren. Back in February, it seemed that the entirety of the Red Wings' hockey operations department, including GM Ken Holland, were in Michigan for the U18 Five Nations tournament. Odds are they were keeping a closer eye on Adam Boqvist from Sweden, but Berggren probably caught their eye, too. The most dynamic forward on a Swedish team that didn't have as much high-end skill up front as we're used to seeing, Berggren looks like he can round into a really nice scoring winger.
More recently, he led Sweden with 10 points in seven games at the World U18 Championship, continuing his trend of being excellent against his peers. The knock on Berggren at this point is that he's a little light and maybe not as aggressive as he needs to be in the harder areas of the ice. That said, he has the ability to make defenders miss with quick hands, and he absolutely knows how to finish.
While he never hit the score sheet against pros in 10 SHL games this year, he was the leading scorer in Sweden's U20 league. His 57 points in 38 games was the fourth-best season ever by a 17-year-old in that league. The Red Wings could roll the dice and see if Berggren is still there with their next pick, but I'd rather make a bet on that high-end skill here than risk missing out on him.
Round 2
No. 33 pick (via OTT): Benoit-Olivier Groulx, C, Halifax (QMJHL)
Age: 18 | Shoot: L | Ht: 6-1 | Wt: 195
68 GP | 28 G | 27 A
There's a decent chance Groulx gets taken in the later portion of the first round, but I still think he slips just outside. If he does, this is a really comfortable slot to take a hard-nosed two-way center who could provide some scoring depth at the next level. Groulx gets his hands dirty and has the versatility to fit into a lot of different roles.
While I don't think he has tremendous offensive upside due to fairly average hand skills, he put up 28 goals and 55 points in 68 games this year with Halifax. Still, his greatest value comes in his commitment to an all-around game, while adding a touch of physicality. There may be higher-end options here, but it never hurts to have a player in the system who you can mold to bolster your bottom six.
No. 36 pick: Jonny Tychonick, D, Penticton (BCHL)
Age: 18 | Shoot: L | Ht: 6-0 | Wt: 173
48 GP | 9 G | 38 A
Opinions vary on Tychonick, but I think he is likely to still be on the board here, or at least be a very early second-round pick. He's an average-sized, mobile, puck-moving defenseman who comes with some pretty solid upside. Tychonick is an exceptional passer with good vision and has a good understanding of how and when to jump into plays. He picks his spots extremely well.
Tychonick put up 47 points in 48 games in the BCHL this season, which ties him for the fifth-highest scoring season by a U18 defensemen in the league's history. Additionally, Tychonick is headed to the University of North Dakota where he'll play for Brad Berry, a very well-respected coach who has specialized in developing defensemen during his career. The Red Wings can let Tychonick marinate in the college ranks for two or three years and get a nearly finished product. I think Tychonick is going to make a great college defenseman with an outside shot at becoming a No. 4 at the pro level.
Round 3
No. 67 pick: Jakub Lauko, C, Chomutov (Czech)
Age: 18 | Shoot: L | Ht: 6-0 | Wt: 169
42 GP | 3 G | 6 A
It's been a bit of a roller-coaster season for Lauko, who generated some preseason buzz with a strong performance at the Ivan Hlinka tournament last summer. He ended up making the Czech Republic's World Junior team as an underager, too, and he played in the Czech pro league, which is a really tough place for young players to produce. He had nine points in 42 games. However, Lauko showed flashes again at the World U18 championship, where he led the Czech Republic in scoring as the team finished in the top four. His inconsistency this season is moderately concerning, but he's shown enough skill and speed to make me believe he's going to make it to the next level. He needs work, but the tools are there for him to add great value in this range.
No. 81 pick (via PHI): Jonathan Gruden, C, USA U18 (NTDP)
Age: 17 | Shoot: L | Ht: 6-0 | Wt: 172
53 GP | 25 G | 26 A
I don't know if Gruden will last this long, but if he's there, the Red Wings shouldn't hesitate to nab the Rochester, Michigan, product. The son of former NHLer and current Hamilton Bulldogs head coach John, Gruden is a high-character player who took a big step forward offensively this season. He plays a solid two-way game, but showed that he can create space for top players, too. He spent a lot of time playing with high-end prospects like Wahlstrom and 2019 standout Jack Hughes (Quinn's younger brother). It was Gruden's job to go to all of the hard areas, create havoc in front and take advantage of whatever chances he got. He ended the season with 60 points in 61 games and was a leader on the team both offensively and emotionally. Gruden is headed to Miami University next season.
No. 84 pick (via PIT): Justus Annunen, G, Karpat Jr. (Finland-Jr.)
Age: 18 | Catch: L | Ht: 6-4 | Wt: 217
26 GP | 2.31 GAA | .907 SV % | 6 SO
The Red Wings have some decent goaltenders in their system, but it probably wouldn't hurt to add another. This isn't a deep year for goalies, and Annunen hasn't generated a ton of draft buzz, but in this range he makes sense. I actually like his game better than many of the goalies expected to go ahead of him. He's big at 6-foot-4, 207 pounds and moves very well in the crease while taking up a ton of net.
I had a chance to see Annunen live a few times this season, and I was struck by how calm he was in the net. He doesn't waste movement and rarely sells out for the big save. He does a good job of staying square and keeping things pretty simple. His numbers aren't amazing, but he did help backstop Finland to gold at the U18 World Championship and should get some pro reps next season with Karpat. The Wings could potentially wait until the fourth round, and they're not exactly goalie-starved in their system, but I like Annunen enough that I'd consider scooping him up with this pick and adding another young talent in net.